Would anyone even continue buying any Argentine exports if Milei's dollarization goes through (it won't, but say it does)?
Chicago Mercantile Exchange is already dollarized so when you buy soybeans you're already paying in USD whether you buy from PY/BR/AR, doesn't matter, so I don't think that would change, but like in the 90s, it makes us less competitive because our internal market would be dollarized too.
When?
A month? A year? Or did he say 15 years?
Was any of this explained to the common Argentine (el pueblo) before they voted him?
His only concrete definition was during his term (i.e. by 2027), but broadly he's talked about the goal being to do so within 1-2 years, i.e. before the midterms in 2025. I really don't see this year being a possibility, if anything more bi-monetarism being increasingly kosher, but that's not the same of course.
Everyday inflation increases and the dollar remains more or less "cheap" the more expensive it will be to dollarize. In November 2023 the cost was estimated to be around $45 Billion to do so, and I doubt that has gone down, if anything, up as the CoL has increased.
Firstly, where will the funding come from to implement this? Secondly, will the justice system permit it? These appear to be the major obstacles that dollarization must surmount. Additionally, there's the possibility of the dollar weakening, leading to inflation regardless. I'm also wary of being subject to U.S. monetary policy. However, I find Milei's suggestion appealing, which proposes the option to be paid in a currency of one's choice. This would mean maintaining the Peso as the official currency but allowing individuals to receive payment in various forms, whether in another currency or even through bartering.
This has been my question to Milei and his fans since day 1: we owe the IMF 45 Billion, it will cost about 45 Billion to dollarize, and we now owe the YPF nationalization shareholders 16 Billion, so that's already $106 Billion dollars there alone, not including any other liabilities/debts, and yet we're struggling to pay the IMF tranches when they come due, so what's the plan? We defaulted on less than 100 billion in 2001, so yeah, I'm a bit skeptical of how we're exactly supposed to get the money to make this all work.
As for the courts, (this is pure speculation on my part) I think they won't kick the hornet's nest on this one. If we somehow get the money they'll see which side the bread is buttered and ignore a denuncia from someone like Juliana Di Tullio because I think this year will prove your later point that bi-monetarism is going to be increasingly chic. This is what Carlos Melconian was arguing for as Bullrich's Economy Minister candidate and is the smarter move imo because it leaves the country with flexibility, and is already common world wide (i.e. electronics/expensive items are in USD while groceries are in the local currency) and we already do this with real estate, used cars, and hotel stays here in Argentina domestically, so it's not unheard of.
I don't understand this dolarization hype. You are basically saying my country is not grown enough to manage basic things like own currency. You pass big part of your sovereignty to the country that doesn't give a single thought to you nor you could shape any policy, measure, nothing.
Own currency allows you to apply your own fiscal policies, you have control and through currency manipulation you can bear some crises better.
Dollarization doesn't do nothing you can't do with peso, if you wish so. It forces you to be disciplined, but that should be the case anyway, no matter the currency. Just stop printing surplus, and you have stable currency. Not too hard of the concept...
This is my preferred method, can you imagine what it would have been like to be dollarized during COVID? You can't print money during times of crisis or to aid with growth, everything is tax and debt driven in another country's currency which enforces fiscal discipline sure, but this should be priority one as you stated for any government.
People have mentioned this before but the reason why dollarization likely appeals so much is due to it being scene as a shortcut, something Argentina and Argentines expect to be omnipresent for any hard choice.
