Election In A Nutshell

[Rich One]

Not a black swan event (at least using Taleb's definition) given the event is neither surprising, nor rare (at least in the countries where democracy is handled "creatively").

A Black Swan event is an event in history that was unprecedented and unexpected (a woman Governor) at the point in time it occurred. However, after evaluating the surrounding context, domain experts (and in some cases even laymen) can usually conclude: “it was bound to happen”.

 

[thorsten]

Ahhh, you were referring to the election of Vidal, not the fact that politicians try to stay in power as long as possible and then try to pass their job to a loyal puppet... Then we just need to have it a major effect (to the good of the province and the country) and we have a "good black swan"

 

[Gringoboy]

Perhaps the law should be changed limiting governors and mayors to the same length terms as presidents for the simple reason that so many of them have created fiefdoms.

 

[Rich One]

Ahhh, you were referring to the election of Vidal, not the fact that politicians try to stay in power as long as possible and then try to pass their job to a loyal puppet... Then we just need to have it a major effect (to the good of the province and the country) and we have a "good black swan"

In December we will have 5 Female Governors , One the Wife of an ex Governor, and the sister of an ex governor talking of fiefdoms B)

 

[garryl]

[background=rgb(255, 255, 255)]FT.COM[/background]​

Argentine assets rallied strongly on Monday after Mauricio Macri, the reformist mayor of Buenos Aires, raised investor hopes that the ruling Peronist party would soon be ousted from power after an unexpectedly strong showing in presidential electionson Sunday.
With an end in sight for 12 years of populist rule by President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her late husband and predecessor Néstor Kirchner, optimism is running high that centre-right Mr Macri could beat Daniel Scioli, the government-backed candidate, in a run-off vote next month.
Polls in the run-up to the vote had shown Ms Fernández’s anointed successor with as much as a 10-point lead over his more market-friendly rival; however Mr Scioli only won 36.9 per cent of the vote, while Mr Macri gained 34.3 per cent, with 97 per cent of votes counted.
Because of Argentina’s unique electoral rules, Mr Scioli needed 45 per cent of the vote, or 40 per cent plus a 10-point lead over Mr Macri, to win outright. The two contestants will now face off in a second vote on November 22.

 

[ElQueso]

I found this little gem on La Nacion:

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1840103-el-imperdonable-error-de-confiar-en-los-argentinos

Maybe there is hope for real change. Maybe I didn't trust the Argentine people enough myself. Heh. Sure seems like there are a lot of people thinking Macri might pull this off and writing about it.

Now we just have to wait and see how it will play out. Like others have said, there is a lot of time between now and November 22. A lot can happen that might undo the impetus that Macri has started. But obviously enough former supporters of Cristina did let their feelings come out in the election. Can they continue to hold the advantage? Can they win over Massa supporters in enough numbers to counter whatever political ploy that must come in the following three weeks or so? Will there be some kind of movement by oficialismo to counteract the advantage that Macri has won?

I hate hoping for something that seems out of reach, even when being so close, that I am hesitant to actually feel hope. But wouldn't it be cool to see Scioli with his current 36% in the runoffs? While Macri pulls in 60% +- ?

Of course, that assumes that whoever would answer my question doesn't think that Cristina was the right thing for Argentina to begin with...and that they are not too far "left" to think that Macri, as an "evil" businessman, might actually be able to do the job

One of the reasons I've been so negative on the possibilities of Macri winning was the successful propaganda (true or not) visited on people living here, both Argentinos and foreigners, that associated a win by Macri with Menem's disastrous reign. Just about everyone I talked to didn't want Cristina in office, but they were almost literally afraid of Macri at the national helm. It's taken me a couple of days to see that maybe Macri can actually be a viable candidate for president in this country.

 

[Gringoboy]

For months now, Adri, my Argentine wife has been absolutely adamant that Scioli would carry it in the first round and if not, then definitely in the second.
Her reasoning being that we, the middle class if you like, were just a small percentage, easily outgunned by the choripan chewing lower classes on social security who know a good thing when they saw it.
I've disagreed with her all the way along in that she hugely underestimates her people and that she would probably be in for a surprise.
She actually cried real tears on Sunday night and I said 'I told you so!' lol

 

[nicoenarg]

She actually cried real tears on Sunday night and I said 'I told you so!' lol

Hope you have a comfy couch.

But I guess this is one of those times people wouldn't mind being told "I told you so". I myself have been so wrong about these elections, its awesome.

 

[Gringoboy]

So much for opinion polls!
Hey, check out this LN article about Sholli wanting to talk to Massa, in particular the comments section:
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1840238-daniel-scioli-dijo-que-esta-dispuesto-a-escuchar-las-ideas-de-sergio-massa

 

[dennisr]

Do not think one can dismiss the influence Pope Francis and the clergy had in the election. K pimped the poor and from their pulpits, the clergy enlightened many.