Expat Choices For 2015: The Worst Is Yet To Come

[scotttswan]

[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]Menem lo hizo![/background]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPJLL2FA8qg

whoever wins i can only hope there's some great campaign videos!

 

[EdRooney]

Can those of you voting for Macri in the poll (or anyone else of the same ilk) please tell me why you think he would lower inflation when he has shown himself to be more profligate than Mme K with the purse strings?

Seriously, I just don't get this. Perhaps we've all become over-Argentised and are voting on personality/image instead of on actual policies?

Bewildering.

 

[Jaredberryman]

It's impossible to know what any of these candidates would do, but the only candidate there I think is most "probable" to successfully combat inflation is Macri. Most likely what he would do is lift the cepo for starters, devaluate the peso, and also quit printing so much money (initially this would cause more inflation but would permit a slowdown; maybe). Since Macri's strongest characteristic is his business acumen, and he actually at least attempts to make plans with so-called experts (unlike Cristina who has always put grossly unqualified people into positions that they clearly are not ready for), he might actually and really have a plan to deal with inflation. That might not work out like he wants, but I don't see any of the others having a clue on what to do. I don't see Aerolineas bleeding as it is now with Macri at the helm or any of the other government services. I think he will cut down "somewhat" on the corruption and make these entities more efficient. In turn, the government would have to print less pesos to cover expenses, and that would in turn make inflation slow (Argentina is not the US where they can print and print and foist the inflation off on other nations). Also, there is a popular perception among the upper and middle classes that Macri would do better with inflation, and don't forget that one of the causes of inflation is psychological as well. To me it is a long shot that anyone will get it reigned in in the short term. That being said, I probably wouldn't vote for Macri if I were Argentine.

EdRooney doesn't think inflation hurts the poor. I strongly disagree. Here is why: when inflation exceeds the level of salary raises or planes or whatever, the poor have less buying power. Inflation is thirty percent per year. My retired suegros don't make much money. The raises they get in their retirement are NOT 30 percent per year. That leaves two working class people with a very small amount of money to live off of. Imagine if every year for five years you have 15 percent less buying power. That is basically what has happened to my suegros. They can have no savings and without their family's help would struggle immensely. There is only money for food on the table. Now imagine for a minute that they did not have help from family. This poor retired couple, who has a 50 year old house, sees that their house is falling apart, but they cannot afford to do anything to it. In turn, the albanil who needs money from these kinds of projects, cannot find enough work. He has less buying power, spends less. Government gets less income. Prints more. Causes more inflation. It's cyclical and too much inflation negatively effects everyone. This is why Argentina is now in a recession.

It's important that the next person that comes in gets some good expert help and starts seeing how to curb so much inflation without destabilizing the country. I believe it will help poverty in the long run and help keep things a lot more stable. Will this happen? Probably not.

But in my opinion, the biggest problem in Argentina is not inflation. It's corruption. In that case, I would vote for the candidate who I believe is least corrupt and also willing to confront corruption and weed it out. The only two options that fit that mold would be Carrio, or possibly Cobos. Whoever comes in will have a heck of a time repairing all the damage that was done through corruption.

 

[MDZ]

Can those of you voting for Macri in the poll (or anyone else of the same ilk) please tell me why you think he would lower inflation when he has shown himself to be more profligate than Mme K with the purse strings?

Seriously, I just don't get this. Perhaps we've all become over-Argentised and are voting on personality/image instead of on actual policies?

Bewildering.

Because with Macri everything is going to be better

 

[EdRooney]

Tex, where did I say that inflation does not hurt the poor?

 

[Jaredberryman]

Tex, where did I say that inflation does not hurt the poor?

I don't know. I remember you saying something to that effect in a post somewhere and it struck me as odd.

 

[EdRooney]

Yeah sounds odd to me too. As you correctly point out, inflation being beneficial depends on income rising at a rate that is equal to or greater than the real inflation rate.

What I don't understand is your point about Macri and printing. His economic team essentially said this week that they would print the money to pay for their debts, but they can't because the Fed Govt has the keys to the printing press. Otherwise they would be doing the same as the current regime: spending, issuing debt, printing... all of which would expand the money supply and thus inflation.

Also I didn't get your point as to why "quitting printing" would "initially lead to more inflation." Could you elaborate?

Thanks!

 

[EdRooney]

Hey Mágico Dublingo O'González de Mantenimiento: I specifically addressed this poll towards fiscal conservatives, so you're disqualified on technical grounds. If you want a poll for Sinn Féin quasi-socialists, go find Joe.

As for you Ejcot: when I am crowned Emperor of Argentina, I shall appoint you my youtube scrounger.

 

[Jaredberryman]

Yeah sounds odd to me too. As you correctly point out, inflation being beneficial depends on income rising at a rate that is equal to or greater than the real inflation rate.

What I don't understand is your point about Macri and printing. His economic team essentially said this week that they would print the money to pay for their debts, but they can't because the Fed Govt has the keys to the printing press. Otherwise they would be doing the same as the current regime: spending, issuing debt, printing... all of which would expand the money supply and thus inflation.

Also I didn't get your point as to why "quitting printing" would "initially lead to more inflation." Could you elaborate?

Thanks!

I doubt that Macri would print more money than the current government has because I think he could stop the hemorrhaging with Aerolineas, Futbol Para Todo, etc. etc. and thereby would not need to print as much. But of course that's just a hunch and I will believe it when I see it. There is a big difference between printing to cover metrobus, subways, etc. and printing so that your friends can put it in their pocket (which many claim Macri has done as well). I'm not a Macri fan. But my hunch is that he would possibly do the best at getting inflation under control, although that's probably still a long shot. Macri also says that he would do a lot of things, but he is a politician. You never know what a politician will do until they are in power. I did not mean that quitting printing would help inflation, I meant that stopping the cepo and devaluating the official peso would cause inflation in the short term. But would help in the long term. All I'm saying is if I was a betting man, the candidate that could do the best managing the economy would be Macri and that is the candidate I would bet on. That doesn't mean he will do that; the reality is that I think none of the candidates will do a good job of managing the economy. The inherent problem is not just the economy; it's corruption. At nearly every level of government, in every single contract that is made or deal that is done, government employees and politicians skim 20, 30, 40, 50 percent off the top. This is the worst problem in this country right now, even worse than inflation (since it is also a major player in the cause of inflation).

 

[Matiasba]

duplicated