Finally, an economic plan that makes sense!

[Stantucker]

Any decent economist knows that Macri should have reduced deficit, stop monetary emission and reduce inflation in order to sustain economic growth. This " amazing " plan that the IMF is now imposing in exchange of its loans, should have been implemented from day zero. Three years after, Argentina would still be sovereign and the economy should be growing. This is what people voted him for. He did not honor his word, lied miserably, and now took big loans that future administrations will have to deal with. I still don't understand what is the " magic " recipe that you seem to think the IMF has give Argentina as if it was a gift from the gods (???). The thread's title implies that you seem to be relieved...well, being it that Macri got all this money without any consent, it really does not make any sense to me, as this money is meant to be repaid by future administrations...

Are you sure that all Argentine economist agree with your assessment? You imply that if they don't, that their opinions aren't worth anything. It's this pejorative, disqualifying sort of language on this forum that makes me not want to participate. If you don't agree with me, you are totally wrong and stupid.

 

[Stantucker]

Are you sure that all Argentine economist agree with your assessment? You imply that if they don't, that their opinions aren't worth anything. It's this pejorative, disqualifying sort of language on this forum that makes me not want to participate. If you don't agree with me, you are totally wrong and stupid.

And before anyone else says it, yes, I have used that kind of language myself, unfortunately. We all need to watch that and just stick to stating our opinions and the thinking behind them.

 

[nikad]

Are you sure that all Argentine economist agree with your assessment? You imply that if they don't, that their opinions aren't worth anything. It's this pejorative, disqualifying sort of language on this forum that makes me not want to participate. If you don't agree with me, you are totally wrong and stupid.

I am sorry you don't like the tone. I am not a native English speaker so I am sure I miss things along the way. I always try to use neutral language. I have yet to hear any economist saying that they should not stop monetary emission, reduce deficit and control inflation, care to name a few? I would be interested in reading their reasons.

 

[Pensador]

Don't mock the venerable doctor,he is fighting shape shifting Illuminati lizard Nazi's hiding in Argentine fema camps!

It's only a matter of time before he identifies a nazi pizza pedo ring operating out of a Kentucky's pizza in recoletta...

ROFLOL and prosecutes them to the full extent of conspiracy law.

 

[Stantucker]

I am sorry you don't like the tone. I am not a native English speaker so I am sure I miss things along the way. I always try to use neutral language. I have yet to hear any economist saying that they should not stop monetary emission, reduce deficit and control inflation, care to name a few? I would be interested in reading their reasons.

Nikad, your English is great, and your "any decent economist" was not that problematic. I just get tired of that kind of language from myself and other, and what you wrote just hit me the wrong way. Back to the what you said, I think you are right that most economists would agree that Macri needed to do the things you outlined, the questions was when. He was trying to do those things but over a longer period of time, and lots of economists at the time thought his gradulist approach was the right one. Because of what happened in the world and in the country and because of errors of Macri's own making, we know now that this was not a good approach. If Macri, the rich kid, had tried to make a lot of these reforms from day one, he would have been called even more so the rich people's president and would now be on a beach somewhere drinking pina coladas after having been helicopetered out of the country. I think it's just too easy to say now what he should have done, even though he is responsible in large part for the mess the country is in.

 

[earlyretirement]

Nikad your English is fabulous. The biggest problem often times as it relates to Argentina is that economists or financial professionals in general (heck..or people in general) don't truly understand Argentina. So one thing in theory, in a vacuum isn't the same in principle when you have such a complicated country. It's clear to me Nikad from reading your posts that you do understand Argentina. It seems like you do business here and have lived here for quite a while.

I do agree with you that Macri when taking his words and promises is a liar. I do agree he erred by being way way way too optimistic and promising things he (nor anyone else for that matter) could ever possibly deliver.

I know everyone is totally frustrated. For good reasons. But I think it's always important to realize just how difficult things are there. You try to fix one thing and it presents a huge problem for another group in Argentina. Yes, we're all used to the protestors but there is an almost careful dance you have to do as to not cause tremendous chaos. That's the most difficult thing I found about Argentina. It's hard to solve one issue without creating a totally separate chaotic issue. I do business all over the world but have yet to encounter such a complicated country like Argentina.

I'm certainly not as optimistic as some here that this IMF emergency loan will work longer term. It's important to keep in mind Argentina has had 22 IMF deals since 1958, and none have restored macroeconomic stability on a long-term sustained basis. But I'm not as convinced as many of you are that Argentina didn't need the money. As I mentioned before, whether you run a large multi-national company or you run a country, you can't scramble at the 11th hour and try to come up with funding and I do believe Argentina needs the cushion. That's not to say that I'm right and you're wrong. Just that's my personal opinion having lived and worked in Argentina for nearly two decades.

 

[wrangler]

My biggest problem with Macri is that he is by far the biggest liar I have known in my life, so I am done with him, and so are many others. I cannot see one thing that he has actually done correctly to move the country forward.

In regards to the IMF, I still don't understand why Macri decided to spend tens of thousands of millions of dollars in construction projects that certainly where not in the budget at this time, and then go to the IMF. Maybe he should have waited until domestic production and exports started to erase the deficit.

After getting the loan from the IMF, they had to renegotiate, and who says that this plan is going to work? I have my doubts that this time things are going to work out, and that they won't need to renegotiate.

It doesn't take a genius to know that when the U.S raises interest rates that capital flows out of emerging markets like Argentina back to The U.S. Mauricio Macri certainly knew the Fed schedule, so why did he go on a spending spree with all of these construction projects at this time, knowing that there was also the possibility that money would flow out of the LEBACS??? So again, was he really that Stupid, or is all that occurred until now done by the design? I tend to think the latter is true.

I also feel like his stupid speeches are choreographed. Everything is planned, but his poll numbers suck so bad, that I believe we are going get rid of him. I see evidence that the opposition is organizing, and nobody believes his BS any longer.

 

[Stantucker]

My biggest problem with Macri is that he is by far the biggest liar I have known in my life, so I am done with him, and so are many others. I cannot see one thing that he has actually done correctly to move the country forward.

In regards to the IMF, I still don't understand why Macri decided to spend tens of thousands of millions of dollars in construction projects that certainly where not in the budget at this time, and then go to the IMF. Maybe he should have waited until domestic production and exports started to erase the deficit.

After getting the loan from the IMF, they had to renegotiate, and who says that this plan is going to work? I have my doubts that this time things are going to work out, and that they won't need to renegotiate.

It doesn't take a genius to know that when the U.S raises interest rates that capital flows out of emerging markets like Argentina back to The U.S. Mauricio Macri certainly knew the Fed schedule, so why did he go on a spending spree with all of these construction projects at this time, knowing that there was also the possibility that money would flow out of the LEBACS??? So again, was he really that Stupid, or is all that occurred until now done by the design? I tend to think the latter is true.

I also feel like his stupid speeches are choreographed. Everything is planned, but his poll numbers suck so bad, that I believe we are going get rid of him. I see evidence that the opposition is organizing, and nobody believes his BS any longer.

I guess the biggest difference between me and you is the degree of intentionality and plotting we see behind Macri's mess; we don't disagree on his mishandling of the economy. Unlike you, I do not think Macri ever intentionally lied or that all of this is a big plot on his part to destroy the country.

You are right that he hasn't kept any of his campaign promises. But as Earlyretirement has pointed out, he was beginning to fulfill some of those promises when April hit. That's not a sign of someone intentionality trying not to keep their promises. Yes, he badly miscalculated and exercised very poor judgement, and he is responsible for those mistakes and the mess they have put us in, but I don't see all that as a plot.

He thought foreign investment would flow into the country once he opened it back up to the world and the Ks were gone. Maybe that thinking was the result of hubris; he is powerful and has usually gotten what he's gone after. Maybe he has a savior complex. Or maybe he's just not up to the job. I dont know. But I do think he wanted to help people, to improve their lives. For me, because he didn't want to pull the rug out from under people and for self preservation (he's not a peronista), he chose a gradulist approach, which, as I and others have pointed out was beginning to work (poverty was coming down, etc). I realize that that the road to hell is paved with good intentions and that inspite of whatever his intentions were, the country is still in a real mess. I know that is the bottom line.

But I am willing to at least to try to see the good he has done because I don't think he is pure evil. Do you really think all the cases of corruption in the courts right now would be moving along if Scioli had become President, when they were stalled under the Kirchners? I am not just talking about the cases against the Kirchners and associates, but also against mafia kingpins within unions like Caballo Suarez, Pata Medina, and the likes of the Salada fellow, to name just a few. And what about taking on all the corruption in the La Plata justice system and the police there? There is also greater transparency with real INDEC numbers about things like proverty and inflation. The costs of public works that have come way down. Also, I see this govt going after the drug trade in a way the prior govts did not. You have said before but what about the nacro Cambiemos officials in Corrientes, I think it is. I am sure there is corruption in Cambiemos and that some of that is tied to the drug trade, but I have heard of so many more drug busts and raids during this administration. I know Rosario is a mess, and maybe it's gotten worse. This govt's successes may have been uneven, but they are making more of an effort to fight the drug trade.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

I appreciate your reply. I am a well seasoned investor operating in different stock and real estate markets for over a decade, so I understand a thing or two.

Macri was expected to clean out the economy, and that means zero deficit from day one. The president having the wrong information is unacceptable: if his team and advisers are unable to provide him with accurate information, they should resign.

I am not sure what your grounds are for taking the less traumatic decisions, history has proven that gradualism has systematically failed worldwide. You can only stabilize an economy with shock measures.

A devaluation was needed and it should have happened years ago, to reduce public internal debt.

The IMF, just like any bank or loaner is in its fair right to take all measures it considers appropriate to secure it will get its money back. HOWEVER, Macri should have used private loans under this same old and repeated plan that you praise so much.

The IMF has loaned Argentina money to secure private debt repayment. This money is not for infrastructure, salaries, pensions, hospitals or schools. As a matter of fact the IMF does not care whether people eat or not. It prevents Argentina from defaulting yes, but unless the current administration does its part, it will help nothing.

In the end Macri has proven to be more of the same populism but with a different tone. He is keeping the poor poor, the middle class is paying for all his " mistakes " ( which I don't believe are such ), and the rich stay richer. We pay more taxes than any country in the world to get c**p in return and they keep adding new taxes ( who would come invest here? ) He is trying to turn the country into an exporter of primary agricultural products ( you see a model where big land owners are they only ones making money ). No industry or development.

Macri systematically lied to the middle class that voted for him and will get his payback in 2019. I do not like Trump, I thought he was ridiculous when talking about building a wall, etc. He is about to start building it and the economy in the US is booming.

Macri needs CFK more than he needs the IMF at this point. He needs the big corrupt enemy that makes him look not so bad after all. But they are both the same. Being Macri's father one of the heads of corruption, how deep and hard do you think he will fight it?

People should not be paying for the ongoing party of corruption of the last decades: the economy could be clean and debt would be reduced by renegotiating public services contracts for instance, or by using a system similar to Chile's for public infrastructure... but if they did so, all of this millions of public money would not be going through the dirty hands of corrupt politicians.

Argentina 2018 is just more of the same old. Rickulivi, what is it that makes you SO happy and impressed about it? Unless you are holding Arg bonds... I don't get it?

You are naive, he has accurate info, it is only that his busisness / criminal plan has the side effect of bunkcrupting the country.

The whole deficit is because he forgave tax to the richest.
To keep to usd to low for so long was because then they can buy cheap usd to make capital flight because they had a lot more pesos because they self increase the profit of his electricity, oil, water, etc bills.
We have the most corrupt President of the world.
They are spending 20% of the budget, but they are not saving money because the other 80% is missing.
So, yes, CFK was the lesser evil.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Who are the lazy that don't deserve it? Government employees?

The President.