From today's NY Times

[xibeca]

Yeah, I see the rich getting richer and the poor staying poor....

Then you either haven't been living here for very long or you're blind.

Poverty dropped in the aftermath of the economic crisis of 2001-2002, after it reached a record high of over 50%. In 2010, the official poverty level was 12%. Some unofficial estimates suggest that unemployment and poverty levels may be higher.
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/26516.htm

It might be higher than 12%, but it's nowhere near as bad as 50%. Things have improved here and you don't need statistics to see it.

all they have done is jacked up government spending to a very high and unsustainable levels .

You have a source for that?

 

[Philsword]

It might be higher than 12%, but it's nowhere near as bad as 50%. Things have improved here and you don't need statistics to see it.

I think the official government numbers are around 20%, private estimates are closer to 30%. With high inflation the percentage of people living in poverty is almost certainly increasing.


You have a source for that?

This year spending is up 40% from a year ago, even allowing for inflation this appears out of control. Do you think 40% year over year spending increases with 25% inflation is sustainable? At what point do tax revenues fail to keep up? Seems just a matter of time to me before this unravels.

 

[citygirl]

One: The piece in the NYTimes is an Op-Ed piece, not an impartial article. It's one person's opinion.

Two: Poverty at 12%. Really? From another NYTimes article - not Op-Ed piece "The official 12 percent number for poverty is also well below independent estimates of about 30 percent." http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/americas/06argentina.html?scp=5&sq=argentina&st=cse

Three: Consumption is absolutely on the rise. How much of that is funded by the fact that a) people are trying to get rid of their pesos due to inflation and b) they're buying things in quotas? I'm seeing a lot more credit card use in the last 6-12 months than I have seen in the past 5+ years here.

Four: The economy is largely fueled by commodities, specifically soy. As long as the export market holds strong and there is international demand, that's great. If those prices drop, then what?

Things have been good here, I just don't see solid underpinings to the economic growth here. The eggs are in one basket so to speak.

 

[xibeca]

Do you think 40% year over year spending increases with 25% inflation is sustainable?

You're asking me? You quoted me quoting someone else. I would like to see a source of that data.

One: The piece in the NYTimes is an Op-Ed piece, not an impartial article. It's one person's opinion.

And a non-Op-Ed article is impartial?

Two: Poverty at 12%. Really? From another NYTimes article - not Op-Ed piece "The official 12 percent number for poverty is also well below independent estimates of about 30 percent."

Without knowing the source of these "independent estimates", they are even less credible than the government's numbers. You believe in something just because it's published in the NYTimes? How about you give us sources to your 30% claim instead?

Four: The economy is largely fueled by commodities, specifically soy. As long as the export market holds strong and there is international demand, that's great. If those prices drop, then what?

They are not going to drop. Food prices are going to rise worldwide, soy included. And that's my opinion.

 

[xibeca]

Even the World Bank, a sworn enemy of the Kirchner's, puts the number to 13% in 2009:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.URHC

Check out the graph yourselves.

 

[citygirl]

And a non-Op-Ed article is impartial?

Well, since it doesn't include the word OPINION and EDITORIAL in the title, I'd say it's a lot more impartial than an Op-Ed piece

Without knowing the source of these "independent estimates", they are even less credible than the government's numbers. You believe in something just because it's published in the NYTimes? How about you give us sources to your 30% claim instead?

With regards to the poverty amount - La Nacion is another that seems to feel the same: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1096069-...-casi-el-doble-de-la-admitida-por-el-gobierno And their sources:

Los datos surgen de tres estimaciones elaboradas por Ecolatina, el Instituto de Estudios y Formación de la Central de Trabajadores Argentinos (CTA) y la consultora Prefinex a las que accedió lanacion.com.

And you have looked at what the gov't is calling the poverty level correct? There are quite a few people who estimate that even if it were 50% higher, people with that income level would still be suffering the effects of living in poverty. Income poverty, as of the first half of 2010, officially includes adults living with a monthly disposable income of around 370 Argentine pesos (US$ 95) per person, and children for whom monthly expenditures total no more than around 200 pesos (US$ 51) each; a family of two adults and two children were considered poor in early 2010 if their monthly family expenditures were less than around 1,140 pesos (US$ 292).http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_South_America#cite_note-canasta-1

They are not going to drop. Food prices are going to rise worldwide, soy included. And that's my opinion.

Congrats on your opinion. Obviously others share it. IMO, an opinion is not exactly the strongest foundation to base a country's economic future on Me personally, if I were in charge, i'd love to institute tax breaks to small businesses to encourage more small business growth, have a SBA or the like to give loans to small businesses that came to me, encourage investment (internal and external) want a more transparent INDEC (since whatever claims to the contrary, outside of Argentina, their reports are perceived as a joke), put some of those surpluses into paying down the debt that was defaulted on, investing in the schools and colleges here and putting people to work to earn those subsidies.

 

[xibeca]

Well, since it doesn't include the word OPINION and EDITORIAL in the title, I'd say it's a lot more impartial than an Op-Ed piece

No, the only difference is that an Opinion article is one person and that they include opinions in it. But they are both equally subjective and partial.

Oh and with regards to the poverty amount - La Nacion is another that seems to feel the same: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1096069-...-casi-el-doble-de-la-admitida-por-el-gobierno And their sources:

Los datos surgen de tres estimaciones elaboradas por Ecolatina, el Instituto de Estudios y Formación de la Central de Trabajadores Argentinos (CTA) y la consultora Prefinex a las que accedió lanacion.com.

And what organizations are these? If this study is credible, then why isn't the World Bank adjusting their figures to it? They, if anyone, would love to be able to show that the Kirchner's economic policies are a failure.

Congrats on your opinion. Obviously others share it. IMO, an opinion is not exactly the strongest foundation to base a country's economic future on

It's economics, not experimental science.

Me personally, if I were in charge, i'd love to institute tax breaks to small businesses to encourage more small business growth, have a SBA or the like to give loans to small businesses that came to me, encourage investment (internal and external) want a more transparent INDEC (since whatever claims to the contrary, outside of Argentina, their reports are perceived as a joke), put some of those surpluses into paying down the debt that was defaulted on, investing in the schools and colleges here and putting people to work to earn those subsidies.

Finally something we agree on.

 

[Philsword]

Even the World Bank, a sworn enemy of the Kirchner's, puts the number to 13% in 2009:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.URHC

Check out the graph yourselves.

Actually the Worldbank and IMF use the numbers provided by the Kirchner's Indec organization. Does it mean they think believe they are correct? I doubt it, in fact the IMF footnotes the Kirchner's numbers basically saying private estimates differ. Argentina is the only country they footnote, the implication is clear and not exactly a vote of confidence in Indec. Do you believe inflation is only 10%?

 

[citygirl]

Xibeca - I'm curious since you didn't comment at all. Do you not think the figures the gov't uses to determine who is living below the poverty level are ridiculously low?

Do you think that someone earning 500 pesos a month isn't impoverished? That 1140 pesos a month for a family of 4 is so low as to almost be considered ridiculous. How do you think a family of 4 lives that is making a monthly income of 1500 pesos? Or 2000 pesos?

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Not a very good article in my opinion, more or less ignores a lot of the bad stuff that's gone on in Argentina and doesn't really discuss the sustainability of the economic model. The best thing the world could gain from Argentina's experience is how not to run a country.

With all my respect, it is useless to talk about the lack of sustainability of this model when the other models are sinking and this model has been used succesfully by the US to rise after the depresion and by Argentina to rise after 2001 crisis.

I think that the Argentinian example evidences that the mesures that politician are taking in the US will produce more crisis.

Regards