Fun Betting Pool: When will the next crisis hit Argentina?

[MorganF]

Okay, everyone seems to think the next crisis is around the corner.

I think that, too: although I've been saying that for 4 years, and I've been consistently wrong

So, I think it would be fun if all of us just put down in writing (in this thread) our prediction for when the next crisis will hit Argentina.

The winner (he/she who is closest to the date in either direction)... I don't know, I'll take them out for a drink or something! Or someone can propose a more fun gift for them

Definition of the crisis hitting: I don't know, someone smarter can probably come up with a good objective measure. Maybe a fall in the peso vs the dollar rate by x% over time period Y?

So, I'll start: July 1st 2012.

 

[Hellek]

yeah if one keeps saying "next year it will really come" long enough he will always be right sooner or later, no matter whether we are talking about argentina, US, china or whatever.
TBH I'll wait for the elections until I say anything.

To stick to the rules of this thread: I predict the next crisis to hit on December 17th 2012.

 

[Amargo]

This post is pathetic. A crisis would hit hard those who don't have much, not those yuppie expats living in Palermo. It is sad that someone tries to make fun of it.

 

[marksoc]

Tommorrow. Yeah, you would like that. People, I know that a crisis will make your USD more valuable, but even if this is an expat forum, think about us locals also. When the next crisis will hit? I hope never in my country,maybe in yours (Red Dawn 2012!).

 

[gouchobob]

MorganF, you stole my date! I think after the election there will be a big hangover. There will be a few months where the government tries to avert disaster with conditions worsening daily. The lid can be kept on for a while but the chickens come to roost about six months into 2012.

 

[Staszekfc]

My turn:

March 15, 2012

On that day we will get about 5.5 ARS for one USD.

 

[marksoc]

This thread doesn´t make sense. Everybody knows that the world will end in 2012.

 

[sergio]

The crisis is here. 30% inflation, prices at or exceeding US levels, 3rd world salaries. I don't foresee another crisis like the last one unless the whole world sinks, rather more of the same. I don't see the people electing a more rational, transparent government so the same corrupt clientelism will continue. The thing that interests me most is how long this horrendous inflation can go on. Could prices double or triple those in the US with wages remaining at 3rd world levels?

 

[MorganF]

This post is pathetic. A crisis would hit hard those who don't have much, not those yuppie expats living in Palermo. It is sad that someone tries to make fun of it.

Hey Amargo --

I'm sorry for offending you. I wasn't trying at all to make fun of it. I spent my life savings buying real estate in Argentina, I'm married to an Argie and have lots of family in Arg - my family and I will be hurt significantly by the upcoming crisis. I didn't mean to make fun of it at all. I'm sorry for having given you that impression.

PS: I wish I had enough money to be one of those rich expats that goes to Isabel every weekend and lives the good life in Argentina, immune to the crises here! I wish your implicit criticism (that I'm a rich expat yuppie) were true, because I wouldn't mind having the luxury and money in the bank to support that lifestyle.

My apologies,
morgan

 

[mini]

This post is pathetic. A crisis would hit hard those who don't have much, not those yuppie expats living in Palermo. It is sad that someone tries to make fun of it.

You know, I was thinking the exact same thing. It's one thing to bitch about the problems we all have. It's quite another to have a "fun betting pool" about something that could potentially cause a great deal of harm to a lot of people, some of which who are on the brink already.

Bad taste!