FX Holiday today & Monday?

[Rich One]

Due to the unstable FX situation with the Blue Dollar at $ 442 and climbing .... It was announced on TV the FX holiday for Monday...? Means no official rate will be available...?
Please confirm.

 

[Alfred_Arnold]

Due to the unstable FX situation with the Blue Dollar at $ 442 and climbing .... It was announced on TV the FX holiday for Monday...? Means no official rate will be available...?
Please confirm.

I heard it too on La Nacion+ a short while ago. You can always gauge the informal, unofficial progress/decay on a cryptocurrency exchange site with a USD/ARS pair until/if the official FX returns to trading.

(At this moment i'm seeing 443.50 for USDT/ARS)

 

[earlyretirement]

Just out of curiosity for those of you on the ground living there, what are the local experts predicting by year end?

 

[Rich One]

Just out of curiosity for those of you on the ground living there, what are the local experts predicting by year end?

Local Crystal balls not equipped to make such long term predictions. ..!!

 

[Johnny]

Just out of curiosity for those of you on the ground living there, what are the local experts predicting by year end?

If Milei does well in the Paso the sky is the limit for inflation and the exchange rate, particularly if he continues to talk about replacing the peso with the dollar.

 

[jlynch]

will there be some news on monday?

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economi...ion-y-prepara-sus-proximos-pasos-nid21042023/
rumours of a devaluation - and if it happens if massa will stay on.

Seems like government is denying it

Economía denunciará penalmente a una sociedad de bolsa que advirtió a sus clientes sobre una devaluación

La empresa informó a sus clientes sobre “rumores muy fuertes” de un salto cambiario del 50 por ciento para el próximo lunes y el mensaje se viralizó

www.infobae.com

 

[antipodean]

Exchange holiday + a confirmed presidential use-by-date + brecha over 100% = devaluation announcement.

If they don't devalue now, they know it will explode in a very messy way very soon as more and more businesses have already given up on the peso in the day-to-day which creates a spiraling effect until resolved... good luck getting anyone to honor contracts in pesos or linked to a BNA official rate lately, the word "billete" has found its way into the day-to-day for most business deals large and small, despite the ongoing need to settle in pesos.

 

[Rich One]

If Milei does well in the Paso the sky is the limit for inflation and the exchange rate, particularly if he continues to talk about replacing the peso with the dollar.

That's the first foot down the second is when Millei ends up 2nd. in the Presidential Election. Waaruuuuum. Fasten your seat belts , your head between your knees.

 

[Alfred_Arnold]

Just out of curiosity for those of you on the ground living there, what are the local experts predicting by year end?

I'd say the ceiling is 900-990:1 (pre first round of presidential election), because they aren't going to be printing larger bills (at least in time for release) and they won't be able to live down the largest denomination bill being equal to or less than one dollar. They'll be selling weapons or ammo or food to Iran and North Korea before they let that happen for the "saving face" factor.

If the FDT party comes in third in the PASO, i agree with @Rich One that there is no crystal ball adequate enough for this.

 

[Quilombo]

So, Ámbito reports that the rumor is, well, a rumor, and that the CNV is investigating the company for basically spooking the markets.

That being said, 2 new cepos were introduced to stem the outflow of dollars, 1 delaying the payments of things like licenses/subscriptions by entities using the MULC, and the other tightening rules on participating in CCL market via parking time requirements. These extra rules seem to be causing delays with the authorization to access the MULC resulting in the "FX holiday"

Devaluation rumor + new cepo + Alberto not running + resignation of the Alberto's advisor + Bullrich & Milei's polling numbers + the lack of sales from the Soybean Dollar version 3 is what is causing this. We'll see what happens on Monday, but I doubt they devalue, speeding up the crawling peg to match inflation is what I've read (and seen) which makes more sense.

Just out of curiosity for those of you on the ground living there, what are the local experts predicting by year end?

Always bet against the peso, but as everyone else is saying, sky is the limit in terms of what we could see for the exchange rate, any of them really, though the BCRA/official will move in line with inflation is the goal via "micro devaluations/crawling peg".

We don't even have to wait for the end of the year, come August we'll have a better idea with the PASO and total votes. Some things that will put upwards pressure on the exchange rate include:

- Bullrich winning the JxC PASO
- Milei getting a sizable chunk of votes
- FdT candidates doing poorly/winner being an "also ran"

It's ironic because those of us who remember August 2019 know the dollar rose due to expectation of the return of the cepo, while now the dollar will rise due to the opposite: the expectation the cepo (and peso?) goes away. This will cause the dollar to spike because because it's better to buy $100, $1,000, $10,000 at 500 pesos per dollar than 9,000 per dollar which is around the true value of the dollar based on BCRA reserved divided by pesos in circulation/peso debt/peso deposits.

I make one prediction and one prediction only: the value of the dollar will increase. Feel free to quote me on that.