Hello Recession, Goodbye Inflation

garryl

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When the true recession comes, the real estate value will fall as in 2001. I think Argentina is far from there. This time, people have much much more money in their pocket that they saved from last 15 years of relative good time. Same in US, many Americans (at least 50%) have massive (relatively speaking, compared to themselves) savings, if economy goes to recession, people can hold for much longer time. That's why Fed has been raising interest. They are not afraid a crash in US now.
 

camel

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Why not invest in Venezuela it has had a crash and prices have come down 80percent?

My concern would be property rights - I don't think property rights in Venezuela are enforced the same way as in the US, for example. If people are squatting on your property, can you do anything? Will the government take your property at some point (nationalize, redistribute?) Does anyone here have experience in Venezuela?
 

earlyretirement

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Why not invest in Venezuela it has had a crash and prices have come down 80percent?

Because Venezuela for all intent and purposes is just not a desirable place like Buenos Aires is. And that's putting it politely. Some would call it a sh*thole. I've been to every country in South America and there is no place like Buenos Aires in South America. It just doesn't exist. Sure, there are special and unique cities but no place like Buenos Aires. Plus, we all know what is happening in Venezuela. That just won't happen in Buenos Aires.

I'd disagree with anyone that says property prices will go down as low as at the crash. It just will never happen again. That was a once in a lifetime chance to buy real estate that cheap in Buenos Aires. Am I saying it won't go lower? Absolutely not. It will as property prices are high now. But NO WAY will it go as low as in 2002.
 

earlyretirement

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Well, prices went down in every crash.

Yes, naturally prices of real estate go down with every severe recession. Same no matter where in the world you go. All I'm saying is you won't see the per sq. meter prices you saw after the crash in Argentina. Just like you won't see the severe discounted prices after the fiasco with the meltdown in the USA. Those were once in a lifetime type situations where you could pick up premium real estate for artificially low prices.

I don't see real estate prices like that again in Buenos Aires. Like I said before, people really learned from that situation that the best thing to invest in Argentina is land and bricks. Absolutely if the economy gets worse than prices will fall though. I don't think anyone is disputing that.
 

Phatbuddha

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When the true recession comes, the real estate value will fall as in 2001. I think Argentina is far from there. This time, people have much much more money in their pocket that they saved from last 15 years of relative good time. Same in US, many Americans (at least 50%) have massive (relatively speaking, compared to themselves) savings, if economy goes to recession, people can hold for much longer time. That's why Fed has been raising interest. They are not afraid a crash in US now.
Absolutely agree with this...... lots more tightening of the screw to come yet -
 

Phatbuddha

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Understand - there is growing , young unestablished sector coming up,( millennials and back end of Gen.X)- but holidays and TVs inside -
The vast majority of property in Argentina is owned outright - and not bank owned like in the US/UK/EU-
.... and it’s in the best interest of the “Government “ to keep this inflation game going ....
 
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