on the brink
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It is rumored that Cristina has had the hots for Kiciloff for years, and wants to keep him close by.
How long before Cristina kicks Alberto aside?
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Pierre Smith
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I see a path for Axel:
(1) If, within a year, it is clear that Cristina has been effectively sidelined by her corruption/court issues, the evolving political situation, and canny moves by Fernandez to peel away support and/or isolate/oust her allies; and
(2) Fernandez rules the country as I suggested he could a few posts back, that is, moderately, with a largely technocratic and broadly pro-growth non-deficit focus; and
(3) As a result of the above, we see a clear split emerging in the Peronist front which, at first, backs Cristina, and the idea of her second term spending policies; and
(4) In time, as it becomes clear that Cristina is a grandee and no longer a serious candidate, Axel becomes the leader of this left faction and the head of the internal Peronist opposition to Fernandez; then maybe
(5) Axel beats out Fernandez for the party nomination (or, he runs under some other banner in the PASO and edges out Fernandez to face a right wing candidate), thus becoming the Peronist candidate for president.
Then, pick your poison. Maybe if Fernandez has fixed things up enough that the Peronists still have the trust of the lower middle class, and/or the right is associated with Macrismo, and/or the right selects a terrible candidate, then I could see Axel Presidente.
(1) If, within a year, it is clear that Cristina has been effectively sidelined by her corruption/court issues, the evolving political situation, and canny moves by Fernandez to peel away support and/or isolate/oust her allies; and
(2) Fernandez rules the country as I suggested he could a few posts back, that is, moderately, with a largely technocratic and broadly pro-growth non-deficit focus; and
(3) As a result of the above, we see a clear split emerging in the Peronist front which, at first, backs Cristina, and the idea of her second term spending policies; and
(4) In time, as it becomes clear that Cristina is a grandee and no longer a serious candidate, Axel becomes the leader of this left faction and the head of the internal Peronist opposition to Fernandez; then maybe
(5) Axel beats out Fernandez for the party nomination (or, he runs under some other banner in the PASO and edges out Fernandez to face a right wing candidate), thus becoming the Peronist candidate for president.
Then, pick your poison. Maybe if Fernandez has fixed things up enough that the Peronists still have the trust of the lower middle class, and/or the right is associated with Macrismo, and/or the right selects a terrible candidate, then I could see Axel Presidente.
