How ugly has it gotten, or not?

AlexS said:
At the end of next year things will get very ugly. It will be interesting to see if FF will be able to hang onto power. Not a political statement, just that the coming economic tsunami will be so intense that it may wipe out whoever is in control. No amount of financial tricks will be able to contain it.

I would say the mood is a bit gloomy at the moment, but Argentines are an incredibly resilient people.
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Why?
The mess is produced for the lift of capital control fligh plus the abrogation of tax to minery and soy. FF is going to stop the Capital flight and to enact those taxes again.
MM kept the usd too low for too lo g just like De la Rua and both created a mess alike.
MM made it even worst because the high electricity bills that asfixiates the industry. This is something FF already expressed that the bills are going to be freeze.
We are like Berlin 1945. We have to rebuilt the industry but the Marshall plan was taken by Hitler and already spent but we have to pay it, but at least we are not going to hace another 4 years of bombing and political prosecution.
 
perry said:
Whoever wins is inheriting a huge foreign debt and a central bank that is broke . This cannot be reversed by the Peronists unfortunately
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They did it before. The reserves can be recovered if the farmers and oil companies cash the usd in Argentina. Simple. Even the IMF recognized that to abolish this made the disaster happend.
 
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Bajo_cero2 said:
Why?
The mess is produced for the lift of capital control fligh plus the abrogation of tax to minery and soy. FF is going to stop the Capital flight and to enact those taxes again.
MM kept the usd too low for too lo g just like De la Rua and both created a mess alike.
MM made it even worst because the high electricity bills that asfixiates the industry. This is something FF already expressed that the bills are going to be freeze.
We are like Berlin 1945. We have to rebuilt the industry but the Marshall plan was taken by Hitler and already spent but we have to pay it, but at least we are not going to hace another 4 years of bombing and political prosecution.
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Bajo, there were capital controls and export taxes at the end of the CFKs term. The economy was not in good shape. There was a budget deficit, foreign deficit, high inflation, and a current account imbalance.

The main reason there was some success with these policies previously is because commodity prices were high. This generated an enormous amount of money for the government to distribute, subsidize and stimulate consumption.

Growth in the world economy has been slowing, central banks all over the world are easing at the moment, which means they foresee even weaker growth ahead. Weak growth means less demand for raw materials which means lower prices. CFK will not have the same luxury as before, which why her toughest years were the last couple when commodity prices were on the decline.
 
perry said:
Whoever wins is inheriting a huge foreign debt and a central bank that is broke . This cannot be reversed by the Peronists unfortunately
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Exactly the same kind of time bomb inherited by Alfonsin, De la Rua, and Macri. Can't wait to see the Peronistas deal with it.
 
Bajo_cero2 said:
Do not worry, nobody expects MM to win.
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Well, there is still a possibility.

Here is a story. Back in 1996 pro-western president Boris Yeltsin entered his second term presidential election race with 8% approval rating and ultimately won the elections.

What happened after that is described in details here, but basically enormous foreign contributions to his election campaign, securing more debts from IMF, selling out state property in exchange for support, best image-makers in the world were running his advertising - everything up to the outright electoral fraud.

Also, Yeltsin suffered a serious heart attack in the middle of the elections and it was concealed from the public.

Macri's situation with his 32% rating is incomparably better.
 
redlobster said:
Well, there is still a possibility.

Here is a story. Back in 1996 pro-western president Boris Yeltsin entered his second term presidential election race with 8% approval rating and ultimately won the elections.

What happened after that is described in details here, but basically enormous foreign contributions to his election campaign, securing more debts from IMF, selling out state property in exchange for support, best image-makers in the world were running his advertising - everything up to the outright electoral fraud.

Also, Yeltsin suffered a serious heart attack in the middle of the elections and it was concealed from the public.

Macri's situation with his 32% rating is incomparably better.
Click to expand...
Well, that settles it, Macri is a sure winner.
 
What happened in Venezuela was due to a military coup. And, its true, the worst times in Argentine history were also due to the military seizing power- including something like 4 defaults on foreign debt, tens of thousands of deaths, torture, financial collapse, recessions, and more horrible things. Not exactly comparable to what happened under the Kirchners.
I dont know what will happen.
But I kinda doubt it will be as bad as it is being predicted.
 
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