How's everyone hanging in there with the cost of living these days?

[JeffR]

I'm giving this thread a bump, hoping it will provide the new member known as "Candz" with useful information.

In mid-November of 2024, my monthly COL was just over $400USD (up from $165USD in January of 2024).

By the end of the year, my monthly COL was just under $500USD.

The only reason it isn't significantly higher now is that I switched from eating roast beef to eating chicken on a daily basis in January.

I think anyone considering moving to Argentina for work should seriously consider waiting for prices here to stabalize before deciding to make the move, unless they have a rock solid guarantee that their income will increase at least at the same rate as their COL.

Good idea. Time and time again I see people relocating to a place because it has a favorable exchange rate, oblivious to the fact that rates can and do change over time, not always in their favor. Leaving them trapped in a place they can no longer afford.

 

[FrankPintor]

Subjectively, this is like when I moved here to Buenos Aires in 4Q2017. Every visit to the Chinese supermarket cost USD 50 or more. Airbnb rents were USD 1500 - 2500 for a single bedroom apartment (the 2500 apartment was a duplex in Recoleta, very nice, but way overpriced). I got past that stage, and it's always more expensive getting yourself set up, and then life was much more enjoyable here.

Now we're living rent-free (though with fairly horrific monthly expenses) in our own house out in the "campo" north of BA.

 

[Che1990]

Subjectively, this is like when I moved here to Buenos Aires in 4Q2017. Every visit to the Chinese supermarket cost USD 50 or more. Airbnb rents were USD 1500 - 2500 for a single bedroom apartment (the 2500 apartment was a duplex in Recoleta, very nice, but way overpriced). I got past that stage, and it's always more expensive getting yourself set up, and then life was much more enjoyable here.

Now we're living rent-free (though with fairly horrific monthly expenses) in our own house out in the "campo" north of BA.

I also arrived at that time with the dollar at $15 pesos. It’s very similar now I feel.

And of course, the government were doing the same then as now. In fact it was Caputo and Sturzenegger in government.

Fast forward to mid-2018 it all blew up in their face.

 

[FrankPintor]

I also arrived at that time with the dollar at $15 pesos. It’s very similar now I feel.

And of course, the government were doing the same then as now. In fact it was Caputo and Sturzenegger in government.

Fast forward to mid-2018 it all blew up in their face.

Déjà vu all over again

 

[Rich One]

I also arrived at that time with the dollar at $15 pesos. It’s very similar now I feel.

And of course, the government were doing the same then as now. In fact it was Caputo and Sturzenegger in government.

Fast forward to mid-2018 it all blew up in their face.

Can we extrapolate and conclude that in the next six months it will all blow up in the air and the dollar will shoot up to $2000 or more..?

 

[Quilombo]

Can we extrapolate and conclude that in the next six months it will all blow up in the air and the dollar will shoot up to $2000 or more..?

There's only three options really, right? Deflation, an exchange rate correction, or an even more brutal recession. Milei and Caputo have been kicking the can down the road for awhile, and there's now there's no more blanqueo fun money to manipulate the dollar with, so something's gotta give, and it ain't the IMF; the disbursement and ending the cepo are mutually exclusive, and I imagine the IMF isn't also going to let him use the money to prop up the peso once the cepo is gone, so I'm not really sure where things go from here.

 

[chris]

There's only three options really, right? Deflation, an exchange rate correction, or an even more brutal recession. Milei and Caputo have been kicking the can down the road for awhile, and there's now there's no more blanqueo fun money to manipulate the dollar with, so something's gotta give, and it ain't the IMF; the disbursement and ending the cepo are mutually exclusive, and I imagine the IMF isn't also going to let him use the money to prop up the peso once the cepo is gone, so I'm not really sure where things go from here.

I think Trump has a big say in an IMF loan, no? Didn't he impose tariffs on Argentine aluminum? And he says there will be reciprocal tariffs before long. I don't see signs of favoring Argentina.

 

[Rich One]

I think Trump has a big say in an IMF loan, no? Didn't he impose tariffs on Argentine aluminum? And he says there will be reciprocal tariffs before long. I don't see signs of favoring Argentina.

Trump gave the thumbs up for the IMF 40 Billion loan to Macri.

 

[Che1990]

There's only three options really, right? Deflation, an exchange rate correction, or an even more brutal recession. Milei and Caputo have been kicking the can down the road for awhile, and there's now there's no more blanqueo fun money to manipulate the dollar with, so something's gotta give, and it ain't the IMF; the disbursement and ending the cepo are mutually exclusive, and I imagine the IMF isn't also going to let him use the money to prop up the peso once the cepo is gone, so I'm not really sure where things go from here.

Sadly, I think deflation in USD is just so unlikely because of the culture here.

I cannot imagine a property owner or small businesses lowering their prices. In Argentina, it just won’t happen. It’s as much about society as it is the politics. The greed and lack of astuteness for competitive pricing is very present here.

Its only big companies that have lowered their prices when impuesto PAÍS was scrapped.

For example, I buy Starbucks Coffee, the 259g pack. On Mercado Libre, with Nescafé it’s now much cheaper, but no other business has lowered their prices. Nescafé charges 11-12k, every other business 20k. Obviously they won’t sell, but do they bring prices down? No. That’s the way of thinking here.

Maybe deflation in terms of no more increases, but if the exchange doesn’t change then prices remain the same in USD. Deflation would be in pesos, but even then if IPC is low it will take a very long time for salaries to catch up.

It’s a shit show for sure.

 

[Redpossum]

Trump gave the thumbs up for the IMF 40 Billion loan to Macri.

Yes, he did, but Trump made a lot of mistakes in his first term that he is obviously determined to avoid this time. The other thing is, "screw me once shame on you. Screw me twice, shame on me." Trump could well take the attitude that Argentina hasn't serviced the initial loan at all well, why should they get any more?

In the final analysis however, if there is one characteristic which has defined the first 30 days of Trump v2.0, it is unpredictability. He could go either way, or some other direction entirely.