How's everyone hanging in there with the cost of living these days?

[chris]

I think Trump has a big say in an IMF loan, no? Didn't he impose tariffs on Argentine aluminum? And he says there will be reciprocal tariffs before long. I don't see signs of favoring Argentina.

And things didn't go well in the long run. Also Trump is much more experienced now. And there is Elon's influence. Who knows but the aluminum tariffs don't indicate any favoritism and if the IMF loan goes through the condition is going to be lifting the CEPO and probably more conditions as well.

 

[chris]

Yes, he did, but Trump made a lot of mistakes in his first term that he is obviously determined to avoid this time. The other thing is, "screw me once shame on you. Screw me twice, shame on me." Trump could well take the attitude that Argentina hasn't serviced the initial loan at all well, why should they get any more?

In the final analysis however, if there is one characteristic which has defined the first 30 days of Trump v2.0, it is unpredictability. He could go either way, or some other direction entirely.

He won't agree to a loan without conditions.

 

[LuckyLuke]

There's only three options really, right? Deflation, an exchange rate correction, or an even more brutal recession. Milei and Caputo have been kicking the can down the road for awhile, and there's now there's no more blanqueo fun money to manipulate the dollar with, so something's gotta give, and it ain't the IMF; the disbursement and ending the cepo are mutually exclusive, and I imagine the IMF isn't also going to let him use the money to prop up the peso once the cepo is gone, so I'm not really sure where things go from here.

Deflation can occur in two ways, consumer prices falling and wages staying flat, or prices staying flat while wages increase. Many people focus on the first instead of the latter, however both represent an increase in purchasing power. Sadly, I fear rather than a recession Argentina is going the stagflationary route instead.

 

[ArgentinaVet]

Deflation can occur in two ways, consumer prices falling and wages staying flat, or prices staying flat while wages increase. Many people focus on the first instead of the latter, however both represent an increase in purchasing power. Sadly, I fear rather than a recession Argentina is going the stagflationary route instead.

Prices remaining steady while wages increase is called ECONOMIC GROWTH, not deflation. This is usually caused by an increase in productivity. Factors that lead to an increase in productivity is a conversation for another day.