Hyperinflation ante portas

gracielle

Registered
Many economists and aficionados announce the perils of Hyperinflation soon Alfonsin style . Which forced Alfonsin to leave the Casa Rosada earlier..! The poor receiving Plans are the electoral base of the Populista governments

Will it happen this year ?
Article published today courtesy of El Cronista. Take your pick or mix and match!
 
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Alpinista

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I’ve seen mostly predictions that inflation will continue in Argentina. Have there been any predictions for 2022-2024? Would love to plan my next year in Argentina but since I don’t leave until July I have no idea what it will be like then.
It will have limited relevance for you as long as you have usd income or savings.
 

Mira Vos!

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It will have limited relevance for you as long as you have usd income or savings.
Sure, but I’m guessing if the official rate drops off so will the blue dollar? 5-10% isn’t a big deal but if it went up 30%+ that’s different, especially if there’s other countries with stable currencies
 

Alpinista

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Sure, but I’m guessing if the official rate drops off so will the blue dollar? 5-10% isn’t a big deal but if it went up 30%+ that’s different, especially if there’s other countries with stable currencies
I am not 100% sure whether i understand your issue. You plan to come here in a couple of years and have usd?
A few lose points:
1) the Forecast for next year’s inflation is according to the government 29% (in my view this is a 1% scenario, i expect it to be far higher)
2) beyond 2021, it is even much more speculative. I am more on the pessimistic side, but there are also other members here who are more optimistic. I really do expect an exonomic and social meltdown. Then all forecasts and budgets are obsolete
3) whether there is still an official and a blue rate in a few years (or months): who knows.
4) i think what you are really interested in is not the inflation rate, but the development of your purchase power. Normally, the devaluation is about the same as the inflation rate. Over the last year or so, the devaluation however was far bigger than the local inflation. So if the inflation is 200%, but the peso loses 250% against the usd, you even gain in terms of purchase power (you take a taxi through the city for 2 usd or go for lunch for 4 usd.) So the inflation per se is not interesting, but the difference between inflation and devaluation.
But again, totally impossible to make any predictions here.
 

Mira Vos!

Registered
I am not 100% sure whether i understand your issue. You plan to come here in a couple of years and have usd?
A few lose points:
1) the Forecast for next year’s inflation is according to the government 29% (in my view this is a 1% scenario, i expect it to be far higher)
2) beyond 2021, it is even much more speculative. I am more on the pessimistic side, but there are also other members here who are more optimistic. I really do expect an exonomic and social meltdown. Then all forecasts and budgets are obsolete
3) whether there is still an official and a blue rate in a few years (or months): who knows.
4) i think what you are really interested in is not the inflation rate, but the development of your purchase power. Normally, the devaluation is about the same as the inflation rate. Over the last year or so, the devaluation however was far bigger than the local inflation. So if the inflation is 200%, but the peso loses 250% against the usd, you even gain in terms of purchase power (you take a taxi through the city for 2 usd or go for lunch for 4 usd.) So the inflation per se is not interesting, but the difference between inflation and devaluation.
But again, totally impossible to make any predictions here.
Thank you, that last point did a great job describing it. I would likely arrive in July then stay 6-12 months (or longer) if all is well :)
 

Dougie

Registered
Predictions for inflation in 2023, 2024 haha, Mira Vos...you're not even going to get an accurate prediction from the most brilliant economist in the world.

As others have said as long as you have USD, the chances of Argentina becoming expensive for USD holders in the next few years is very low.
 

Ceviche

Registered
Miravos, the best advice I can give you is this.

Lets say you plan to arrive in July 2021.

Lets say you have saved 12000 usd for this trip.

My advice - But 1 BTC with it and hold in a cold wallet. For sure, you will thank me in July 2021 as in next 6 months it will do much better than USD,
 
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