In 2020, the annual inflation according to INDEC was 36%.
This figure was significantly below 2018 and 2019. It goes without saying that the government was celebrating this "achievement".
All good then?
1. Most analysts agree that the lower inflation in 2020 was due to the economic shutdown for a good part of the year
2. The trend of the last four months shows a clear acceleration of the inflation rate:
Also first indications for the month of February show no slowing down (also around 4% expected)
(Explanation: a monthly rate of 4% translates to 60% annual inflation, a monthly rate of 5% results in an annual inflation of 80%)
3. The "core inflation" was in January closer to 5% than the 4% indicated (especially for the poor this is more relevant as they spend a big part of their income on food which was 4.8%).
Also the government (via the state owned YPF) increased the price of Nafta in four rounds only this year by 11-12%.
4. Most economists don't see a slowing down, mostly for the following reasons: over the last four months the "real" dollar was quite stable. Once the Blue is going up again (and it will ... ) then it will impact the inflation; also salary rounds are due over the next months (salary increases also translate into higher prices). A lot of the printed money was parked in peso bonds which sooner or later also will be entering the money base.
Basically all independent analysts and economists agree that the inflation is a result from the public deficit and the corresponding money printing. And for the government this is now one of the biggest issues they are having on the table. They know that with an inflation of around 50-60% it will be extremely hard in the elections later this. At the same time, they know a drastic cut in public spending will turn off a lot of voters.