I don't really understand economics...

[el_expatriado]

BTW, after spending 9 days in Chile, coming back here feels like returning to North Korea.

Argentina is the left-wing dystopia that the Republicans in the US are afraid of.

 

[camberiu]

Argentina is the left-wing dystopia that the Republicans in the US are afraid of.

They claim to be afraid of. In reality, they all aspire for the same thing, more government and more power.

 

[el_expatriado]

They claim to be afraid of. In reality, they all aspire for the same thing, more government and more power.

One thing that Argentina has taught me is that George Orwell, Aldous Huxley, and Philip K. Dick are all wrong. A dystopia where the government has total control over everyone's lives is not possible because government by its very nature is so inefficient, incapable, corrupt, and inept that it could never hope to achieve the kind of control over everyone that these authors envisioned.

 

[willwright]

It is not something that I am particularly interested in but I have been trying to follow along as my move to Buenos Aires is set for September.

So I have a few questions that I would like some help with. If someone could explain I would be very grateful. Remember, this is not my strong point so simple terms and examples would be appreciated.

1. Everyone agrees that Argentina is heading into a recession correct? Normally don't prices of items go DOWN in a recession? Why is it that Argentina prices are going up?

2. I realize that the worst part about a recession in unemployment.. which i think leads to increase in crime... but what else should one expect during a recession?

3. If the value of the peso continues to decrease. I realize that this is bad for Argentina as a whole but... is it negative for those who make their money in dollars/euros? It seems to me that this would be a positive for increasing tourism... Is that not true? why?


Thanks in advance, I am going on faith that there is no such thing as a dumb question!

It's not a dumb question, the answer is "the government". Inflation Argentina is caused by excessive government spending and money creation to prop up the regime. They would let the peso depreciate but it would greatly exacerbate the inflation problem. According to the government inflation is less than 10% most credible sources have it at +25%. A responsible government might deal with the problems in a rational manner. This government is only rational about staying in power. It's a matter of when not if the whole mess comes tumbling down. What will replace it? Probably another version of the same thing. In the mean time Argentina will probably approach something like hyper-inflation (again) which will end when you turn on the TV and watch an angry mob chasing the presidential plane down the runway with the current president heading into exile.

 

[tomdesigns]

It is not something that I am particularly interested in but I have been trying to follow along as my move to Buenos Aires is set for September. !

I would suggest you think carefully about coming here. While there is a chance there will not be another crisis there is also the chance there will be.

And this time there is no way out if a crisis occurs. I personally believe there will be and that will occur between the month you get here and January of the following year. And that it will make 2001 look like paradise.

I studied economics for two years.. Living here seeing what is going on with debt and paying in payments is very scary. I see the poor and the middle class buying everything, even their food on debt. At the same time inflation is sky rocketing. Which I think is occurring mostly because of the easy path to debt and the fact most of the population has no idea that debt will destroy them.

Now think.. Argentines are racking up personal debt at 40% and even more interest rates just to buy food. Inflation is off the charts and there is a severe capital flight problem. Beyond all that, now we are heading into a recession.

The auto industry and several other industries are down double digits, like 24% year over year from last year. Thus the desperate attempt to save jobs/taxes by cutting imports. But it is too late for that. Thus we see the desperate attempts to stop capital flight, which only makes the situation worse.

Now we have seen Argentina in Democracy for some 30 years for the first time following many dictatorships.. But the majority of the poor want something else, and the poor rule the vote here. Democracy has not worked for them. I live with them and I understand what they think and what they want.

The leadership in this country is alienating everyone and everything from trade partners, to multi-national investors and even its own people. They would only do these things under desperate circumstances. And only they know what is really going on.

So I give it 50/50 that a real democracy will even exist here inside of 24 months. As if there is even one here now.

 

[tomdesigns]

One thing that Argentina has taught me is that George Orwell, Aldous Huxley, and Philip K. Dick are all wrong. A dystopia where the government has total control over everyone's lives is not possible because government by its very nature is so inefficient, incapable, corrupt, and inept that it could never hope to achieve the kind of control over everyone that these authors envisioned.

You need to live in the USA again or for the first time. They are working on that and when they perfect it they will sell it to the entire world over night.

 

[gusgutier]

One thing that Argentina has taught me is that George Orwell, Aldous Huxley, and Philip K. Dick are all wrong. A dystopia where the government has total control over everyone's lives is not possible because government by its very nature is so inefficient, incapable, corrupt, and inept that it could never hope to achieve the kind of control over everyone that these authors envisioned.

A military dictatorship can be more efficient in this matter. And believe me, it was.

 

[Napoleon]

I just came back from a 9 day vacation to Chile. We were planning on going to Salta at first. But the trip to Chile was so much cheaper that it ended up being a no-brainer.

BTW, after spending 9 days in Chile, coming back here feels like returning to North Korea.

You've got to start listening to me.

"There's more to this city than just FLORES!!"

 

[jamila]

In the mean time Argentina will probably approach something like hyper-inflation (again) which will end when you turn on the TV and watch an angry mob chasing the presidential plane down the runway with the current president heading into exile.

Do you think they might manage to have all that taken care of BEFORE i get there in Septemeber

 

[jamila]

I would suggest you think carefully about coming here. While there is a chance there will not be another crisis there is also the chance there will be.

And this time there is no way out if a crisis occurs. I personally believe there will be and that will occur between the month you get here and January of the following year. And that it will make 2001 look like paradise.

What happened in 2001? What do you expect from the upcoming crisis? I know other people mentioned lack of goods... civil unrest... more inflation. Are these the type of things that you expect?

I don't think i can change the plan... Sept is the date