Is Argentina Finally Cracking Down On Corruption?

[expat0tree]

@perry

I don't mind defending my opinion and happy to respond to your comment.

When I call for invasion I do not necessarily call for chaos and destruction, this isn't a colonial push. My conclusions come from the observation that under pressure countries evolve into better places by lifting themselves out of poverty, that's what is happening in Ukraine at the moment. A country that has already accomplished that is Israel, with no resources and no foundation they were cornered and pressured to not only defend for themselves in new creative ways but they also reinvented themselves from time of real scarcity and non-significance on world stage, today they have an influence in the world with a high standard of living to envy, Argentina by comparison is an embarrassment because much like Venezuela it is suffering from passivity that prevents it from picking itself up in spite of having amazing amount of natural resources. It is nobody's fault that Venezuelans elected a truck driver with no experience and no trust in classic economics.

How can you compare the health care system in the USA with corruption if Obama case is the lawful example of a system that works, this conversation isn't about fairness or your own dissatisfaction with high medical bills, speaking of which you came to a country where your dollar has better purchasing power vs an average Argentine who has to pay with worthless peso for the same procedures, talk about fairness. Argentina has a dark future and likely to end up like Venezuela unless it attempts to learn from the geopolitical pressures around that world and prepares the stage for better and positive trajectory out of necessity and even fear if it wants to survive and have any leverage on the world stage.

 

[camberiu]

@gracielle

The same thing has to happen here, first we need to get attacked by Brazil or Chile.

This made me laugh... Thank you.

 

[expat0tree]

@camberiu

It might be funny to you now and I'm glad we can still be so relaxed in this country but Jair Bolsonaro is very emboldened to amend and maybe even rewrite the Brazillian constitution (his intent) and handle things the rough way, coming from a military background he could very well take an aggressive protectionist approach towards Argentina once his own calculations do not match Brazil's economic expectations. Nobody thought that an American president could implement major trade tariffs on his own allies and yet it happened so unexpectedly.

The trade could well be the start of a new rivalry and hopefully the only form of bickering this decade but with the way that geopolitical trends are shaping these days, things can also evolve much further and get much more complicated something that I'm going to explore here, please excuse my lengthy rant but I'd like to put it out as a mere possibility and maybe it can be of interest to some.

China happens to be the main catalyst in this forthcoming interplay between Latin American countries while Venezuela is the first natural victim or client where Chinese bets are already affecting the balance of power in the region, even the Russians are itching to influence with the 2 bomber planes landing there recently to prop up Maduro's increasingly more North-Korean like regime and monetary support is pouring in in the face of American sanctions.

When it comes to Argentina's affairs, China is already making plans for the coming years, and not just in a form of various bilateral agreements on technology but in real corporate exploitation, taking advantage of Argentina's vulnerability and lack of suspicion in the Chinese agenda as a whole. At first, they will come in with rescue funds and impressive infrastructure projects that everybody will get blinded by (roads, bridges, railroads, dams, and canals). Financial aid at low or 0 interest rates would seem like infinitely better than some western-lead IMF package with its push for reforms, with the Chinese, on the other hand, there will be no need to disclose anything and much of the funds could be laundered if Argentina does nothing to curb its corruption problem by then, the public works and general improvements in the standard of living would probably be enough to distract the attention of the public while behind-door agreements are being signed for deeper corporate cooperation and military participation.

The Chinese would, of course, put forth specific conditions granting their own state-run companies unrestricted access to Argentine resources and a free pass to selling Chinese goods to Argentine public and its neighbors in Chile and Brazil; things like telecommunications equipment and technology, particularly Chinese electronics such as smartphones, which would then allow them to own, control and monitor the data flow between its users and therefore maintain technological superiority over its American rivals in the North and especially against firms such as Apple and Google that would be banned once Chinese networks are established here, in the same way, that Apple and Google are currently banned in China and will be in much of Africa once they solidify their grip on those select client states. The idea of two internets is not new and I'm not the first to suggest this, there are enough reputable technologists to speak about it in recent months and the high probability of this actually taking shape in the years to come as China continues to grow and dominate the high-bandwidth space with the G5 networks and advances in artificial intelligence.

Technological and corporate neo-colonialism is the new globalization and for the Chinese presence in Argentina it will have to be a copy of its strategy in Africa where they successfully financed and influenced entire governments for their political gains to a point where in the United Nations those same African countries had to vote in favor of China on a wide range of issues without caring for global long-term consequences. Selfish of them? Maybe, but they also have no choice but to do act in favor of Chinese interests because of all the money that they owe to China and the better concessions that the Chinese can give them for as long as they continue to comply politically.


American administration won't like the Chinese presence in Argentina, in the matter of fact this was one of the things that Trump wanted to deliver so clearly to Macri during the G20 this year but couldn't quite pressure him yet considering the circumstances. I think it's no secret that America wants to secure Argentina under its own sphere of influence so that it can serve their own interests (talk about sovereignty, it's already gone) and it's not just because of the strategic/geographic importance of Argentina in the southern hemisphere but also due to the enormous mineral resources along with its cheap labor that from USA's point of view should be contracted by American multinationals while securing the strategic military link around the tip of the South American continent, in time before the Chinese navy steps in with its fast-growing presence around major shipping routes.

America's worst nightmare is that of Chinese military installations spreading across South American continent and Chinese military advisors preparing and training the locals while acting like guarantors against any potential aggression against their chosen best-friend Argentina, a threat that by then can easily be engineered to appear in a form of armed insurgencies such as Mapuches, migrant minorities who feel discriminated against or even some terrorist groups funded by the Chinese themselves.

The point is such that we no longer live in a world of nations but rather in a global network of geo-economic powers struggling and competing for dominance and influence, often times projecting soft power and conducting covert operations in order to achieve their political objectives in any given region and Latin America is no longer a faraway place like it used to be in the previous century. Argentina and Venezuela are the softest targets and lucrative grabs for any major power that needs to secure its resources and most importantly its geopolitical sphere of influence in the years to come as America recedes from the global stage and shifts its focus to its own domestic issues.

 

[camberiu]

>

@camberiu

It might be funny to you now and I'm glad we can still be so relaxed in this country but Jair Bolsonaro is very emboldened to amend and maybe even rewrite the Brazillian constitution (his intent)

To rewrite the Constitution and remove the clauses that outlaw wars of aggression and the interference on the internal affairs of foreign nations he would need a super majority in congress. Right now he does not even have a simple majority. And that would be the easy part.

The hard part would be to convince the general population and businesses in general that attacking (just for shits and giggles) Brazil's second largest trade partner and the recipient of hundreds of billions of dollars of Brazilian private investment is a good idea. Yeah, Imbev, Arcos Dourados, Alpargatas, MarcoPolo, Agrale, Multibras and many other Brazilian corporations that have invested huge amounts of money in Argentina would be totally fine with that.
Let's not forget the generals. Brazil has never, ever, had any plans to invade or conquer Argentina. All Brazilian military doctrine since the founding of the republic has been to repeal an Argentina invasion, not the other way around. The Brazilian brass never had any aspiration to conquer South. Quite the opposite, once the Argentina military rule ended and they stopped playing the "South American Master Race" game, the borders with Argentina were demilitarized and the troops were moved north to secure the Amazon (which is the Army's top priority right now). The Brazilian Army is a defensive Army by nature and design.
He (a infantry captain) would need to convince the generals that 150 years of military doctrine are wrong and that Brazil would need to attack (without provocation) and enter a costly war of conquest that our army has never trained/developed a doctrine for, nor is equipped to conduct, with our 2nd largest trading partner. All for shits and giggles.

Yeah, that is not happening.

 

[expat0tree]

@camberiu

Brazil would have to get involved in Argentina militarily in certain circumstances and not because it wants to, this is the likely scenario once the balance of power is being compromised and additional players are beginning to threaten Brazil's own security and economic relationship with its immediate neighbors, that is why I mentioned China as the main contender to such shift in perception. I think it is obvious to anyone that Brazil has lots of vested interest and great economic ties with Argentina at the moment and like you've mentioned there is simply no political will to turn again Argentina in any way considering the existing balance but that's not what I'm talking about. Ukraine too had strong economic ties with Russia prior to 2014 (more trade as the percentage of GDP than between Argentina and Brazil) until Russia decided to force Ukraine militarily to remain exclusively within its own zone of economic cooperation and therefore sphere of influence. Ukrainians are not happy with being pushed around and as a result turned to the west for help, in the resistance process against Russian aggression the size of their economy shrank by 25% due to the decrease in trade with Russia.

What happens if Chinese firms rebalance or affect the trading relationships of Argentina with its neighbor due to its agreements and the conditions that come along with the money they bring? Do you think Brazil is going to sit back quietly and take a major blow to its trade? No. They will protest and accuse Argentina of betrayal and Argentina would argue back that it is in their interest to pursue new economic ties with whomever they want, be it China or anyone else for that matter. From the Chinese strategic point of view, it would make sense to engineer such a rift because then it would have new political leverage at the negotiating table with the Brazilians. This is how rivalries in the globalized economy come to be, it's no longer tanks rolling across the border to occupy additional land, trade recalibrations have a much more potent effect on the state of politics between neighbors. This is a longer-term projection, of course, considering the complexity of such a scenario but it is also likely to accelerate if commodity prices shoot up, for some reason, and if China while being the world's biggest importer of commodities, feels threatened and squeezed by the producers in the developing nations could then feel compelled to intervene in order to secure its supplies, this is one reason that could compel them to act but not the only, there is also the time pressure, an urgency to outcompete the United States for global dominance.

 

[perry]

@camberiu

Brazil would have to get involved in Argentina militarily in certain circumstances and not because it wants to, this is the likely scenario once the balance of power is being compromised and additional players are beginning to threaten Brazil's own security and economic relationship with its immediate neighbors, that is why I mentioned China as the main contender to such shift in perception. I think it is obvious to anyone that Brazil has lots of vested interest and great economic ties with Argentina at the moment and like you've mentioned there is simply no political will to turn again Argentina in any way considering the existing balance but that's not what I'm talking about. Ukraine too had strong economic ties with Russia prior to 2014 (more trade as the percentage of GDP than between Argentina and Brazil) until Russia decided to force Ukraine militarily to remain exclusively within its own zone of economic cooperation and therefore sphere of influence. Ukrainians are not happy with being pushed around and as a result turned to the west for help, in the resistance process against Russian aggression the size of their economy shrank by 25% due to the decrease in trade with Russia.

What happens if Chinese firms rebalance or affect the trading relationships of Argentina with its neighbor due to its agreements and the conditions that come along with the money they bring? Do you think Brazil is going to sit back quietly and take a major blow to its trade? No. They will protest and accuse Argentina of betrayal and Argentina would argue back that it is in their interest to pursue new economic ties with whomever they want, be it China or anyone else for that matter. From the Chinese strategic point of view, it would make sense to engineer such a rift because then it would have new political leverage at the negotiating table with the Brazilians. This is how rivalries in the globalized economy come to be, it's no longer tanks rolling across the border to occupy additional land, trade recalibrations have a much more potent effect on the state of politics between neighbors. This is a longer-term projection, of course, considering the complexity of such a scenario but it is also likely to accelerate if commodity prices shoot up, for some reason, and if China while being the world's biggest importer of commodities, feels threatened and squeezed by the producers in the developing nations could then feel compelled to intervene in order to secure its supplies, this is one reason that could compel them to act but not the only, there is also the time pressure, an urgency to outcompete the United States for global dominance.

You said that Argentina should be invaded due to it being a corrupt country full of corrupt people. Why then are you gunning for Brazil to take over Argentina . Is is a shining example of a modern fair economy and system ? Brazil like Venezuela is considered the most dangerous country in South America with a police force that is more corrupt than Argentina . The financial and economic system of Brazil is a nightmare and is imho the worst system that one can look up too .

Argentina with all its faults has a tremendous base of educated and capable people . The system that has ruined them is not the fault of the people but it is the fault of a small elite that have created booms and busts for over 80 years now as to benefit a very small minority . Its obvious that there is a power change happening in South America now to further divide us between left and right idealogies . Bolsonaros rise to power is very telling and yes it would not surprise me that there is a plan in action that they will invade Venezuela and Argentina. Certainly this is planned from abroad not from Brazils bidding but following orders as to monopolise the continent and create left and right divides . Venezuela just 30 years was the richest and most advanced country in South America now today it is hell on earth . Was this all by accident or was this carefully planned in advance as to take control of its tremendous natural resources? .

The Venezuelan people like the Argentinian people are pawns in a power game between the leading powers of the world . Its now has become obvious and frightening that they have now selected their policeman in South America Brazil to do their bidding and create mayhem and destruction

 

[camberiu]

"yes it would not surprise me that there is a plan in action that they will invade Venezuela and Argentina."

Venezuela AND Argentina. Yes, Brazil would open a two front war, one in the extreme South and another in the extreme North. All of that conducted with it's 200 thousand men Army. Maybe split it to 100 thousand men on each front. That should work, right?
Only people who have absolutely no understanding of military matters, geography and the complexities involved can talk such nonsense with such level of confidence.
This forum never fails to entertain.

 

[perry]

"yes it would not surprise me that there is a plan in action that they will invade Venezuela and Argentina."

Venezuela AND Argentina. Yes, Brazil would open a two front war, one in the extreme South and another in the extreme North. All of that conducted with it's 200 thousand men Army. Maybe split it to 100 thousand men on each front. That should work, right?
futrThis forum never fails to entertain.

I never said at the same time . First Venezuela and then Argentina . This is a distinct possibility due to the changing political landscape in Brazil and orders from their masters to expand beyond their borders . South America has a history of horrific and bloody wars why now its so hard to fathom for you Camberiu ?

Venezuela is very concerned about being invaded by Brazil

Did you forget the war of the triple alliance against Paraguay once the jewel of the crown of South America . Brazil has already invaded Argentine before so now believing that it will never happen again is very nieve .

https://www.patagonia-argentina.com/en/when-brazil-tried-to-invade-argentina/

Argentina is a huge target for foreign intervention and its very telling that on the internet and on forums there is lots of talk on this topic . It is certainly conceivable that we can be invaded as unfortunately our defenses are weak .

 

[perry]

I never said at the same time . First Venezuela and then Argentina . This is a distinct possibility due to the changing political landscape in Brazil and orders from their masters to expand beyond their borders . South America has a history of horrific and bloody wars why now its so hard to fathom for you Camberiu ?

Did you forget the war of the triple alliance against Paraguay once the jewel of the crown of South America . Brazil has already tried to invade Argentina in its history so believing it will not happen again is very nieve.

https://www.patagonia-argentina.com/en/when-brazil-tried-to-invade-argentina/

Argentina is a huge target for foreign intervention and its very telling that on the internet and on forums there is lots of talk on this topic . It is certainly conceivable that we can be invaded as unfortunately our defenses are weak .

 

[expat0tree]

@perry

Brazil does not want foreigners meddling in its own backyard and stealing its market share. Let's not forget the economic volatility of developing nations and their dependence on commodity exports. Brazil is heavily reliant on its domestic commodity market and about 25% of total exports go to China. Russia too is afraid and thinking about the threat of chronically low oil prices, diminishing demand for its oil and natural gas. It has to export in order to stay significant and to have any influence in the Euro region but now that there is more competition it has taken the reactionary position and therefore viewed as an aggressor.

If the Brazillian auto industry loses its dominance to Chinese import cars, for example, that arrive in Argentina for assembly, or if state-owned Chinese firms start growing their own soybeans in the Argentine pampas in order to cut its dependence on Brazilian imports, kind of what the Chinese did with the pork industry in the US this year, they bought the biggest pork producer there in order to shield the industry from political ups and downs in order to guarantee steady supply for the middle class in China because damage for pork is increasing faster than what they were able to import in the past.

Brazil is the big regional power in South America with the potential to influence and oppose in spite of its engrained corruption and disorder and its growing population will guarantee its significance for a long time. Even though it may not be the one making the bidding it would still be left in a situation of having to respond once threatened. It will have to forge a response strategy to react to ongoing changes around itself and yes, express its dissatisfaction with the Chinese presence in Argentina because currently, it enjoys a no-touch trade relationship within the continent and its military forces aren't trained to face external threats. Dilma Rousseff understood this problem and had plans in place to modernize the Brazillian military by purchasing 5th generation F35 jets back then when things seemed rosy enough but it all fell through due to spying allegations of her and then the corruption scandal that exposed the financial instability in the country but Bolsonaro will revisit this dilemma in his presidency.

The reason why I focus on Argentina is because China has already established a relationship with the Cambiamos coalition and planning to sign new memorandums of understanding in various areas of interest. I know that in theory, everybody can benefit from the Chinese economic stimulus on this continent and I hope we will but the fact is that our government is corrupt and that's what complicates the proper development of Argentina with each new injection of capital, this same corruption threatens the years-long trade relationship with our neighbors and global powers see this as an entry opportunity for exploitation. Corruption translates to a wider gap between the rich and the poor and smaller middle class, that's what prevents any given economy from expanding at a steady pace and the Chinese aren't concerned with prosperity here, they are here to fulfill their own interests and secure their own resources towards the 2030 goal to make China more self-reliant and more politically influential on the global arena. It could well be that the Chinese oppose the United States on this continent but the United States has to have a proxy state to execute their resistance, hence the need to involve Brazil and possibly other players too.

Brazil doesn't have to fix its corruption problems in order to get involved militarily in neighboring Argentina or Venezuela or both once insurgencies begin to infiltrate its own borders or if the gap in the trade balance begins to widen and Brazil doesn't want to sit quietly anymore. Russia is one of the most corrupt countries on earth and it still infiltrates sovereign states on right left and center without asking the world how it feels about it. Brazil reaction could be moderate at first but could also prove to be more pro-active and even aggressive depending on its type of governance and constitutional makeup by the time the conflict begins to unravel. Brazil will have to make strategic decisions and seek new partnerships in order to protect its interests and it could even happen that it teams up with Argentina and China in order to oppose the American presence on this continent, who knows, the Americans could be stationed on the Pacific coast from Chile up to Colombia, including Venezuela and fund insurgencies to infiltrate eastwards? Maybe, Argentina meantime is likely to fail to secure its own independence and fall victim to manipulation of either one of the global powers, my only hope is for this competition to remains at a political passive-aggressive level long enough without affecting the citizenry whom could by then pick up and go elsewhere if things get rough, unless people themselves are convinced and willing to fight if someone feeds them weapons, FARC style or Ukraine Separatists style in Donbas.

@camberiu

Outright invasions are a thing of the past and no country would send its only 200,000 troops across its borders into the neighboring territory unless there is a global declaration of war and all sides have switched to war economy mode and even then the likely warfare would take shape of political sanctions, selective aerial bombardments and cyber attacks accompanies by small special forces operations.

What I'm concerned with in this thread is the inevitability of ideological clashing between different nations on this continent once global superpowers begin to establish themselves while our dear country Argentina does nothing to address its domestic corruption problem now that we can still turn the economy around and direct surplus budget towards better international cooperation and economic integration with advanced world economies.

Once the dominant powers establish themselves here, they'll also bring their advanced military gear with them, things such as anti-missile systems, navy ships, etc. What makes you think that nobody is interested in this continent and all the resources that the world is running out of everywhere else? And what makes you think that Brazil is not going to care about Argentina's energy and mining sectors giving in to foreign influences?