Is it a good time to go back?

citygirl said:
Bwwahhhh - Pericles, seriously - do you really think there is a chance in hades that Argentina is going to wind up one of the worlds wealthiest countries again any time soon? There's being optimistic and then there's having some serious rose-coloured glasses on.

As for the rest, I do think the US economy will continue to correct itself, especially in the housing market. And I also think that given some of the things happening in China right now, I wouldn't be banking on the commodity market continuing to soar over the next 5 years.

But time will tell.
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Somewhere between gauchobob and Perry is the truth ! A deep and wide chasm to be sure !
 
Johnny said:
Maybe so and maybe not so. As Tomdesigns points out, things have looked a little more sketchy in the states just over the past week with some poor employment figures and other indicators of the economy maybe slowing again. As for housing, the numbers keep getting worse with no end in sight. And, that is true for most of the country.

All this however is not what Canut is interested in. I think. He made it plain that he wasn't concerned about employment. "Somewhat dynamic and the general cost of living reasonable" was how he put it, in his search for a particular area in the USA. I doubt he is going to buy right away so real estate price is likely not a factor either. And no offense Gauchobob, but I doubt that he gives much of a shit about commodity prices ! Your favorite topic ! LOL.

Go to the Crescent City young man.
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Well things usually don't go in a straight line up or down and making decisions based on this weeks numbers will get you into trouble. If employment is not a factor then it really makes the decision easier, he should go. You can get more for your money in just about every department in the states right now versus Argentina. If you buy property that's distressed as I mentioned your chances of getting burned are not high and in the long run prices will rebound. The point about commodity prices is that is what is keeping the Argentine economy afloat. Any serious drop in prices and they are in big trouble, the economy is basically one dimensional. So he should be asking about where to go, go to a country that's recovering or one that almost sure to have major economic problems in the next year or so? All things being equal I think I know what I would do. Read up on the S&P warning this week that commodities are at unsustainable levels.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/agriculture/news/article.cfm?c_id=16&objectid=10730092

Interesting that two Australians are taking issue with my points, as Australian economy is highly dependent on continued high demand and prices for commodities.
 
One of the reasons that I was attracted to Argentina was reading a book as a young man called the Last Frontier ( Argentina) and from then the idea of this country grabbed my interest.

There are many indicators that are showing that Argentina will be once again in the worlds wealthiest countries like it has been and should be . The potential of this land is vastly superior to any land of the planet .

Combining this with a low population will create a flood of people in the next years in the likes that have never been seen before. Europe will collapse by 2012 and other societies further north will suffer similar fates unfortunately but in the southern cone countries there will be relative tranquility and prosperity.
 
gouchobob said:
My view is that commodities are a bubble waiting to burst driven by demand from China. When it bursts, sometime in the next 18 months or so in my opinion then those countries are going to be in tough shape, U.S. will look pretty good in comparison when that happens.
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I don't see the Chinese demand ending up anytime soon with the +200 days historical drought affecting this country (didn't check the evolution in the past 10 days though). Of course, we are talking about the agrocultural commodities here but still, they are in a big mess (and the Chinese crops for 2011 shouldn't be too good with spring about to end).
 
perry said:
One of the reasons that I was attracted to Argentina was reading a book as a young man called the Last Frontier ( Argentina) and from then the idea of this country grabbed my interest.

There are many indicators that are showing that Argentina will be once again in the worlds wealthiest countries like it has been and should be . The potential of this land is vastly superior to any land of the planet .

Combining this with a low population will create a flood of people in the next years in the likes that have never been seen before. Europe will collapse by 2012 and other societies further north will suffer similar fates unfortunately but in the southern cone countries there will be relative tranquility and prosperity.
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Yes, Argentina has a mega-huge potential but the road will be very long until it becomes one of the wealthiest countries in the world (it used to be indeed, but that was profiting to a tiny percentage of the population).

As for Europe collapsing by 2012 : if you think about the Greek debt (which is a lot for Greece but not that much on the European scale), the French & German banks are way too much involved in it for anything really wrong to happen. What's more worrying (I can understand them though) is to see the Germans being closer & closer with Russia & the Eastern Europe (traditional alliance, the reunification had to have this effect).

I also think the global crisis is not over (W shaped) and if I'm unfortunately right, what's to come is ... gloomy (Sovereign debts + States being at risks this time). Not to mention the populist parties to gain strength (nothing too good never came out from this History speaking).
 
French jurist said:
I don't see the Chinese demand ending up anytime soon with the +200 days historical drought affecting this country (didn't check the evolution in the past 10 days though). Of course, we are talking about the agrocultural commodities here but still, they are in a big mess (and the Chinese crops for 2011 shouldn't be too good with spring about to end).
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I think there are lots of cracks starting to appear in the China story that's going to end up with much slower growth there and much lower commodity prices. It's more than just agricultural commodities it's also trade with Brazil that depends heavily on shipping commodities to China. My view is that most of the South American economies are in effect one dimensional. A lot of what is passing for growth is really just higher prices for stuff dug up out of the ground(or grown) and shipped to China. If China slows down significantly ( a matter of when not if in my opinion) then I think we will see a lot of the growth here was not really real or sustainable. There is a good discussion of these issues in the link below.

http://viewswire.eiu.com/index.asp?...ountry_id=1480000148&channel_id=190004019&cat

I think Argentina is heavily exposed as every last cent the boom has brought in has been spent greatly increasing government spending. Once the boom ends the piper will have to be paid by either drastic cuts in spending, crashing the economy, or both.
 
The only reason why Argentina is not having a huge deficit this year is because commodity prices went up yet again, but for example the soy harvest was the same as last year´s... imagine if some commodity prices dropped :p
 
Economic prognostication aside, I would not recommend moving to the States anytime soon. It's becoming more and more of a police state.
 
mfowler said:
Economic prognostication aside, I would not recommend moving to the States anytime soon. It's becoming more and more of a police state.
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Well if you believe that I'm sure you see the situation in Argentina as paradise found.
 
I agree Argentina should be a wealthy powerhouse, but I don't think that's going to happen any time soon. The biggest issue is that the government is pro isolation and is not interested in participating in the global economy. Until it does, not only will it be left behind but Chile and Brazil will leave it in the dust as they increasingly become the powerhouses of LAM.
 
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