JPMorgan to buy Bear for $2 a share

[Smartypants]

I get my views from this forum: http://www.goldismoney.info/

The General Discussion area is the best. Great source of news and ideas.

 

[Smartypants]

"This is a summary of a documentary that aired recently on Dutch national television. The documentary was based on a "script" made by an economist who was assigned the task to make a "What if" scenario about how the dollar could crash within 24 hours."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n3g5lUgkWk

 

[bigbadwolf]

"Crash" and "collapse" are words designed to provoke hysteria. Collapse can be used to describe what happened to the German mark in the Weimar Republic or the post-WW2 Hungarian pengo. But it is exceedingly unlikely to occur to the world hegemon. There are also some mistakes in the video: the dollar didn't start declining from 1999; it was probably early 2001. The US doesn't need $3bn a day; it's around $2bn. These mistakes and exaggerations weaken the credibility of an otherwise good line of reasoning. Stephen Roach happens to be one of my favorite economists. And I too have been short the dollar since 1998 (even while the dollar kept appreciating against the euro until one euro could only buy $0.83 in late 2000/early 2001). And I agree that the road to any kind of equilibrium will involve massive convulsions in the US economy and the world economy. Perhaps the current US recession is a harbinger of much greater troubles to follow.

 

[Smartypants]

"Crash" and "collapse" are words designed to provoke hysteria.

I don't know the etymology of those words, but for me they are used to describe a situation. 'Shit, my computer crashed' or 'Shit, my back has collapsed'

Collapse can be used to describe what happened to the German mark in the Weimar Republic or the post-WW2 Hungarian pengo. But it is exceedingly unlikely to occur to the world hegemon.

Why? Rome fell... I know the FED is trying do anything to keep the lifeblod, credit, flowing, but it don't work.

There are also some mistakes in the video: the dollar didn't start declining from 1999; it was probably early 2001. The US doesn't need $3bn a day; it's around $2bn.

I don't know when exactly the dollar started to decline. Some one will say that it started when the US got off the gold standard and it depends on what you compare it with. Dollar vs Gold, Dollar vs other currencies, dollar vs oil +++

But the fact is the dollar trend is downward and the money US need every day is upward...

These mistakes and exaggerations weaken the credibility of an otherwise good line of reasoning. Stephen Roach happens to be one of my favorite economists. And I too have been short the dollar since 1998 (even while the dollar kept appreciating against the euro until one euro could only buy $0.83 in late 2000/early 2001). And I agree that the road to any kind of equilibrium will involve massive convulsions in the US economy and the world economy. Perhaps the current US recession is a harbinger of much greater troubles to follow.

Check out this graph:
http://folk.uio.no/fredrin/super_bubbleb.GIF What happens after infinity? *heart attack*

And a funny video:
John Fortune & John Bird on the South Bank show
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_qK4g6ntM

It's funny because it's true, hehe

-s-

 

[Smartypants]

Wow, US banks are _really_ insolvent.

http://folk.uio.no/fredrin/non_borrowed_reserves_April9.jpg

Convert you digital fiat dollars to paper or gold and silver now...

Cash is king in a super depression/deflation.

 

[ghost]

Any contrarians out there that are going for AR Pesos when they hit 4 to 1?

 

[bigbadwolf]

Any contrarians out there that are going for AR Pesos when they hit 4 to 1?

No, but Warren Buffett has invested big-time in Brazilian reals. The smart money moved out of dollars a while ago. In fact you shouldn't even quote Argentinian pesos in terms of dollars as the US dollar is no longer a stable repository of value. Use some other more solid currency to measure the peso against. For instance the peso has been devaluing continuously against the euro.

 

[RWS]

Quoting "bigbadwolf": ". . . Warren Buffett has invested big-time in Brazilian reals. . . ."
Ah, another poster who bought a share or two of BRK to read the Sage of Omaha's advice to investors!

 

[ghost]

Well, I own a smattering of the BRK. But Buffet has achieved the state of being bullet proof. Whereby he can turn chicken shit into chicken salad if it smells wrong. Most of us can't do that.
I am lost on the Obama reference?

 

[RWS]

Quoting "ghost": ". . . . I am lost on the Obama reference?"
"Omaha", not "Obama"! (I understand that the candidate made and continues to make his millions by means neither suitable for nor acceptable to me.)