Long-Term Predictions For The Peso?

[JLL]

Hey guys,

Does anyone have any long-term predictions of where the value of the Peso is headed?

While I didn't miss the whole Griesa situation, I'm not very up-to-date on all the political developments. I've tried scanning other threads, but most of it is political discussions rather than talk about the peso.

I'm just wondering if any of you have any predictions of where the peso is going long-term. Will it stay steady, will it keep devaluating, will it implode at some point?

And also important: WHY?

 

[Mockingbird]

I think it will be at 14:1 by years end.

 

[French jurist]

It will keep devaluating.

The new government after the late 2015 elections will have to pay a lot of money to bond holders and that's when things might accelerate.

If there's a partial default (Griesa's ruling), I don't think this will affect much the peso, but I don't think there will be such a default anyway.

Just the first sentence is 100% sure (not much)

 

[thorsten]

In general, apart from general knowledge which should be already priced in to the rate and obvious trends, personal predictions are pretty much random guesses in most cases - if you could reliably predict the development of currency exchange rates, you would be sitting with a cocktail on your own private island

 

[estebandepraga]

Sad to say, none of us AS FAR AS I KNOW on this forum have either the crystal ball or the power to change it!
If it only reaches 14 I think we are lucky!!

I have lived through so many financial roller coasters I remember in the 80s running with my monthly paycheck to buy the few dollars I could as the rate went up almost by the minute! and with the few pesos I kept, I ran to the supermarket staying one step before the person whose only job it was to re sticker the items with new prices(before bar codes)
often there were 10-15 price stickers one on top of the other!
and in fresher memories of some 12 years ago, when there was no money in circulation and it almost became a bartering society!
Just another part of the Argentine saga!

 

[Mockingbird]

In general, apart from general knowledge which should be already priced in to the rate and obvious trends, personal predictions are pretty much random guesses in most cases - if you could reliably predict the development of currency exchange rates, you would be sitting with a cocktail on your own private island

you dont need to be a FOREX trader to follow trends.

 

[JLL]

you dont need to be a FOREX trader to follow trends.

Agreed. It seems to me that many active members here follow Argentine politics closely, and even global politics/the relation between the US and Argentina. I'm just wondering what those members think.

I know that it will be random guesses, but just wondering how the random guesses of the knowledgeable people here at baexpats look like. I speak to people about this daily, and most of them don't have a clue. At least some of the more active members here have a lot of up-to-date knowledge of the long-term political situation that could influence their guess/prediction.

 

[Mockingbird]

Agreed. It seems to me that many active members here follow Argentine politics closely, and even global politics/the relation between the US and Argentina. I'm just wondering what those members think.

I know that it will be random guesses, but just wondering how the random guesses of the knowledgeable people here at baexpats look like. I speak to people about this daily, and most of them don't have a clue. At least some of the more active members here have a lot of up-to-date knowledge of the long-term political situation that could influence their guess/prediction.

Most people on here have a very rudimentary understanding of politics and economics in general but at least some make an effort on their free time to skim the surface. Which is more than can be said about most people.

 

[EdRooney]

To answer your question, you would first have to clarify if you want a micro- or macro-economic answer.

On a micro level, since the Blue market represents such a small percentage of transactions, it will always be extremely volatile and unpredictable. In that case, a good set of Tarot cards would be your best bet.

On a macro-level, the policy that has been in place for at least the past few years has been to gradually devaluate, trying to buffer external shocks (pretty successful, with just one exception last January). In this regard, Argentina will continue to benefit from the peso devaluating, so Argentines should push the next government to continue to keep pesos cheap and the dollar expensive in order to boost local industry and employment. The question is whether minority interests will prevail on convincing the new government to work toward a stronger peso or a brusque devaluation. So in this case, a lot is riding on the 2015 elections and little will be clear until then.

 

[JLL]

To answer your question, you would first have to clarify if you want a micro- or macro-economic answer.

Was looking for the Macro-economic, not super interested in the Blue, as as you said, it will always be extremely volatile.

Thanks for your answer, I appreciate your explanation