azerty said:
1/ Historically, the falklands should be spanish, as Louis the 15th sold those barren islands to Spain as a sign of friendship a few years before the french revolution. Argentina never "gained" those islands. Even the name is not spanish, malvinas derived from Malouines, which means the land from the people of Saint Malo, the french port from where the first settlers were originated.
The British and the Spanish had a treaty in which they both allowed each other use of islands in the Atlantic. The French actually discovered the islands officially (first actual report authenticated of the islands), about a year before the British put their first settlement on the islands (the British didn't know the French were there).
The Spanish took over the French settlement (the French allowed it - is this what you were talking about? Louis never "owned" it and I never saw anything that made mention of him giving the islands to Spain. Spain itself never thought they owned the islands.) and then kicked the British off. When Britain and Spain almost went to war over this, the Spanish checked their treaty again and said "oh, sorry" and reinstated the British colony. The Spanish then left shortly after, never having a permanent outpost on the islands.
IN FACT, in the late 1800s (don't remember the year), the Spanish actually put a consulate on the Falklands, which was solidly under British rule, which no country would do if they didn't recognize the right of the other country to occupy those lands.
The closest thing I saw that gave Spain any right to the islands at all was a papal bull mandated by Pope Alexander the VI in 1493, who was a spanish pope in a time of a very corrupt church, and who was related to the Spanish king at the time. That has no say in the matter at all. Hell, that bull gave just about the entire western hemisphere to Spain!
azerty said:
2/ There is an important fact that i didn t see mentioned in posts here. Those islands are dependant logistically from the continent. They need a aerial bridge to survive. An argentine blocus would mean the empoverishment of local populations, with a much higer cost of imported goods.
So you're saying that if Argentina were to blockade something that is not theirs, it would cause the people being blockaded to suffer, and that is something for which they could make a claim?
Crap, Argentina effectively blockades itself from the rest of the world and it is suffering. Should we give Argentina back to the Spanish?
azerty said:
3/ When Argentina attacked the Falklands, militaries were in power. It was logical for a military government to seek military solutions. With a democratic goverment, chances for a war are extremely minimal.
There won t be any war because both governments would have too much to loose. Each side is showing muscles for a forthcoming negociation. Most likely, the brits will have to finish that decolonisation process started after ww2, and a treatee similar to the Honk Kong deal will emerge. It will satisfy Argentina who will be able to legitimate its national map including the Falklands (but not the antactic stretch) and satisfy England, since it will be allow them time to make some cash out of mineral reserves.
As far as this being at least one reason why another war won't happen, I tend to agree with you, but maybe not. But not about the British eventually giving up the islands. Hong Kong is/was a different story.
I haven't read the details on this yet, but I've heard that Cristina shut down talks this year, related to profit sharing of the mineral resources (namely the oil). Why would she do this, unless she either thought 1) she had some chance to press the claim and be successful (I can't imagine that happening without Britain's consent, and I can't imagine Britain consenting) or 2) she would just make another grab for it, perhaps around election time.
I wouldn't put that past her and Nestor, but I would rather think that they just have what I consider to be the wrong opinion of what's going to happen related to sovereignity of the Falkland Islanders.
I mean, does anyone not realize that the people who live on those islands, some who have lived there for 9 freaking generations, do not want to be a part of Argentina? Do those people have no say in the matter?
The Brits couldn't hang on to Hong Kong.
China was/is a major power. Argentina is not, and is not exactly at least half of the world's favorite country, having defaulted on debt in a major way and then blaming said half of the world for its own problems, without looking at how much they were actually spending on corruption and innefficient social programs.
Hong Kong was Chinese under British rule. But the Chinese people still have strong ties to their Chinese kindred in the PR. The Flkaland islanders do not want to be under Argentine rule. They are not of Latin descent, they are not "long lost Argentinos" to be re-patriated.
The biggest, I think: the British and the Hong Kongese knew that the Chinese would keep their bargain and allow Hong Kong to function as it had previously because the Chinese are not anti-capitalist or stupid - they like little already-existing money engines and won't disrupt them, at least not very much. As soon as the Falklands is under Argentine rule, it will become part of Argentina.
The Falklanders would be dragged into Argentina kicking and screaming so that Cristina can stop drooling over that unlimited amount of power she sees in the oil - which could grant her the ability for her to play on a stage perhaps bigger than Senor Hugo Chavez...and I doubt very much that the Falklanders would profit.