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WU seems to trail CCL rather than blue, watch it for a few days and you'll see a pretty clear trend


I have heard today from a very reliable source that by March 2020 the peso will be 130 per dollar for the blue rate . This was the case before with the two distinct rates and the cepo with a 60 percent gap being the norm . The official rate will go to 80 and the blue will be 130 by March 2020 .
 
I have heard today from a very reliable source that by March 2020 the peso will be 130 per dollar for the blue rate . This was the case before with the two distinct rates and the cepo with a 60 percent gap being the norm . The official rate will go to 80 and the blue will be 130 by March 2020 .

Well Will the Dollar Blue will double its value in March 2020 ! Will prices will be double then so will be back to square One?
 
I find the idea of a "reliable source" that can accurately predict the future 3 months out, to that degree of precision, pretty amusing. NOBODY has that ability. If they did, they would be richer than Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos combined.

Yes, its a pretty safe bet that the exchange rate will change, and the peso will drop.
But when, and how much, is never for certain.

I am assuming this reliable source will make so much money in for-ex trades that they will be able to save the Argentine economy singlehandedly?
 
One thing I have noticed over the last 12 years, is that the dollar exchange rate, and price inflation in Argentina, do not magically reflect each other in real time. The buying power of the dollar, in Argentine pesos, can vary wildly, even within a few months, as some prices are increased, others are not, and there are times when a liter of beer has cost me .75 USD, or $3USD, for the same bottle of Quilmes at the Chino.
The idea that all prices will quickly double if the Dollar / Peso rate suddenly moved that much- it has not been my experience.

Obviously, imported goods track the dollar the most, and most quickly. Other goods, services, and wages, may take months to catch up, or may never catch up.
It would be great if it all operated just like in an economics text book- but the Argentine economy is so byzantine and unique that it is waaay more complicated than that.
 
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