Milei is well qualified and succeeding as president of Argentina

[TonyTigre]

Milei got himself elected by offending a lot of people and then teaming up with some of the people he offended greatly.

Milei is achieving his objectives through a combination of threats, retribution, marketing, negotiations and compromises, while having the courage to make tough unpopular decisions.

Milei is respected by those who support his policies while feared and hated by those who oppose his plans. If he was a failure, his enemies wouldn't fear him. Some might even argue that before your enemies respect you, they first must first fear you.

It's normal and reasonable to criticize his policies, especially those who are negatively impacted by them. Whether he will ultimately succeed and get himself reelected remains to be seen. However, Milei seems to have proven to be well qualified for the job as president of Argentina and its best chance of turning the country around.

 

[TonyTigre]

Inflation expectations continue to improve. In the attached image, you'll see how the forecast has evolved over the past four months. The source can be found in the linked provided below.

https://www.bcra.gob.ar/PublicacionesEstadisticas/Relevamiento_Expectativas_de_Mercado_i.asp

 

[desde_Holanda]

I beg your pardon? Milei well qualified??

You can't measure the success of economic policy by only looking at inflation numbers. Milei is not the head of the ECB, he's heading a government for God's sake!

And that inflation is going down (after sky high inflation numbers because of Milei in Dec/Jan) is not the result of a smart, balanced economic policy. The only thing Milei has done so far is putting a stop to government spending and printing money, at the cost of many Argentines and of necessary infrastructural projects. Highly irresponsible.

And I don't see him doing the groundwork for structurally improving the investment climate and increasing labor productivity. Stability is nowhere in sight. Instead, he's putting his personal opinions above what's necessary for Argentina and its peoples (economic stability). E.g.: Look at the row with Spain. Note that Spain is the 2nd foreign investor in Argentina, after the USA. This all doesn't help. Milei will fail.

 

[TonyTigre]

@desde_Holanda,
So you believe anyone who prescribes amputation or chemotherapy as a treatment is not a qualified doctor?

Also, before you blame Milei on the sky high inflation, take a look at the inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 from the November 2023 survey.

 

[redlobster]

@desde_Holanda,
So you believe anyone who prescribes amputation or chemotherapy as a treatment is not a qualified doctor?

This has nothing to do with being qualified or not. I could prescribe you a lobotomy, and I am not a doctor at all.

Also, before you blame Milei on the sky high inflation, take a look at the inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 from the November 2023 survey.

Ah, the forecasts. They might think that an inflation rate of 300% is a bit too high and the only way is down. Well, Zimbabwe's experience tells us otherwise.

 

[TonyTigre]

More importantly, if you look at earlier surveys from 2023, you'll see that the forecasts got worse and worse throughout the year, meaning they became more pessimistic. The opposite is happening in the past few months. The inflation forecasts has become more optimistic over the past few months. What do you think the inflation rate would be for 2024 and 2025 if Milei didn't win the election? As @redlobster has pointed out, the actuals could be a lot worse than the forecast from the 2023 surveys. Actuals can always be different from forecasts, but it's notable that the difference between the forecasts from the surveys of 2023 and 2024 is that the surveys in 2023 became more pessimistic as the actuals came in while the surveys in recent months became more optimistic. It doesn't mean the forecast will be accurate, but it is certainly better than having the surveys growing more pessimistic like last year.

Remember that inflation expectations directly impact actual inflation because those expectations affect consumer and business spending and investments, therefore, changing inflation expectation is a very important milestone in itself.

@redlobster, the analogy was to show that just because the plan or treatment causes pain and hardship doesn't mean prove that the treatment is wrong. As for your analogy, keep in mind that 'If A is true then B is true does not mean if B is true then A is true.'

The reasons that I believe Milei is qualified is stated in what I posted in the original post. The inflation data simply shows an important indicator that his plan is working. What many fail to understand is that getting inflation under control is a prerequisite for turning Argentina's economy around. What many also fail to understand is that if the government and its currency loses total credibility, the government would need to cut even more jobs, reduce wages, and will not even be able to help the poorest in the population in the final stage of hyperinflation. Sometimes you have to make difficult decisions to keep things from getting even worse as in the case of a doctor prescribing amputation or chemotherapy.

 

[redlobster]

... the analogy was to show that just because the plan or treatment causes pain and hardship doesn't mean prove that the treatment is wrong.

By calling it 'treatment,' you're already implying that it's supposed to have a beneficial effect. However, it could be something else, like unnecessary torture, for example.

The reasons that I believe Milei is qualified is stated in what I posted in the original post. The inflation data simply shows an important indicator that his plan is working.

Say there is a guy who eats a piece of cake every day. He knows it's bad and that he needs to do something about it. One Monday, he goes to a store, buys a whole cake, and eats it all at once. After that, he doesn't have money for even another piece of cake until the end of the week. So, he didn't have any cake on Tuesday, nor on Wednesday. Would you call it an improvement?

 

[TonyTigre]

@redlobster, one can certainly argue that amputation was unnecessary torture on a case by case basis. That's fine, you're entitled to your opinion and many well qualified experts will even agree with you. However, can you recognize that many other well qualified experts disagree with you and those experts who agrees with you? Just because a doctor prescribes amputation doesn't in itself mean s/he is heartless or unqualified. The doctor might simply have a different opinion than you about the severity of the injuries and which treatment is best for the patient at the time, and the risk associated with alternative treatments? It should also be noted that Milei might not be the ideal president for more normal times, but he just might be exactly what Argentina needs at this moment in time.

Your cake analogy simply doesn't reflect the situation we are discussing. If you insist on using the cake as an analogy, the 2023 surveys suggests that your guy is actually each more pieces of cake each month and would have progressed to eating a whole cake in a single day sometime in the first quarter of this year anyway. He would likely continue to eat even more cake and borrow even more money to do it until he is beyond help.

 

[redlobster]

... the 2023 surveys suggests that your guy is actually each more pieces of cake each month and would have progressed to eating a whole cake ...

This is the inflation rate chart, month-over-month. The December jump is the only 'Milei effect' that has taken place so far. As for all these 'surveys suggest something would happen,' we'll see how the game plays out. Yes, inflation has cooled down a bit since December, but it's still nothing to write home about.

 

[TonyTigre]

@redlobster,
In the November 2023 survey, *before* Milei took over, the average inflation forecast were:
Dec 2023: 18.1%
Jan 2024: 20.7%
Feb 2024: 16.6%
Mar 2024: 14.4%
Apr 2024: 11.8%

The actuals were:
Dec 2023: 25.5%
Jan 2024: 20.6%
Feb 2024: 13.2%
Mar 2024: 11%
Apr 2024: 8.8%

The so call Milei effect is an actual monthly inflation rate of 25.5% for Dec 2023 vs. a pre-Milei forecasted monthly increase of 18.1%, so at best you can say he pushed forward an extra 7.4% increase if you assume the forecast would have been accurate if Milei was not in charge.
Again, what do you think the total monthly inflation rate would have been in those months combined if Milei didn't win? There is no doubt in my mind that if Milei had lost the election, the actuals for the first 4 months of 2024 would definitely be worse than the forecasts provided in the November 2023 survey. If you disagree, tell us what do you believe the inflation rates would have been if Milei lost the election.

Keep in mind that the previous administration likely did all it could to artificially keep prices from increasing too much before the election as well.