Military Coup/Dictatorship; Could it happen again?

LostinBA

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If you had asked me two or more years ago, I would have thought the prospect of a coup d'etat simply ridiculous. However, given the way things are shaping up recently, I like to open the thread to debate.

It seems to me that CFK's government has managed to upset almost all of the members of the WTO, most importantly, the USA and her neighbors with it's import restrictions. She's upset Spain with her movements against Repsol. She's upset almost all the internal forces in the country, the petroleum sector, the agricultural sector, the unions who are about to call for a national general strike. Everyone from ordinary people to business people cannot exchange pesos even for a trip abroad nor can pensioners who have retired abroad now withdraw their state pensions via ATM anywhere in the world. Inflation is out of control and the peso is falling against the Dollar and Euro. England is annoyed with the constant mosquito-like noise about the Malvinas/Falklands. Everyone is pissed off, most especially Argentine business people who are seeing their profits disappear. Afterall, it's hard to make a profit selling something when you can't make it here or import it due to anti-import measures.

I think the only real support she has are from poor workers who love the fact that they get an ever increasing amount of statutory holidays without realizing that if their company cannot earn a profit, they will soon be able to enjoy an unlimited amount of holiday time. I honestly believe that she will lose almost all of the support from the great majority of these people when the economy feels more pronounced effects of her administration's economic policies.

Therefore, considering the fact that she is has seemingly united an immense amount of global power, influence and money against her, her pet imbecile Moreno, her moronic corrupt VP Boudou, and the Campora who are basically a bunch of children without any experience running essential state enterprises, will things go terribly wrong for the country or will she overcome all of these challenges and somehow politically survive?

I apologize for the poor grammar, I'm no writer, just another concerned foreigner who loves this country and wants to help it save it from itself.
 
I doubt the military here have the power to do anything.

I'd place money on the people protesting and someone escaping via helicopter to their large swiss bank account.
 
scotttswan said:
I doubt the military here have the power to do anything.

I'd place money on the people protesting and someone escaping via helicopter to their large swiss bank account.

Let's hope not on the first point and hope so on your second. :)
 
More than one native has told me, "it is a return to the 70's."
Tugs at my heart to see my friends going through these uncertain times.
 
Not a chance IMO on the military dictatorship.

My best guess, she'll resign before the end of her term claiming health issues and go off to live a life of luxury in Spain funded by all that "no reasonable explanation for the increase in wealth" monies stashed in their swiss bank account) with the occasional return to see her "people" in the villas.

The piper will need to be paid, the peso will crash and there will be a few interim governments that will continue down the same path. We'll hit rock bottom and then the inevitable cycle will start again with the economy rebuilding itself.

In about 2 years, someone will take power, the gov't will stabilize and start spending money like a drunken sailor and the economy will once again be heralded as the great success story.

Round about 2020, cracks will start to show and the descent will start and we'll be in the same place around 2022 as we are today.

But that's just a guess ;)
 
I think anything is possible, the military might not be able to fight a war but against civilians even limited and obsolete equipment works well. However I think the day of military coup in Latin America might be over for the most part. 30-40 years ago coups were practically everyday events, today they are fairly rare, some progress has been made. I doubt the way things appear headed she will finish her term. I would think it more likely some sort of interim government followed by elections is more likely. I don't think anybody wants to go back to a military dictatorship.
 
I can remember the 70's when the first thing that came to mind when you heard a helicopter was that there was a new person living in the Casa Rosada. Although that is not desirable there does seem to be a need for change which can not come about through elections when the opposition is so fractured.
 
Iam not an expat but no one that lived here for the last 30 years would like to see the militars back, I agree there is corruption and all the hassle but the militar were also corrupted people, they were not better plus 30.000 missing and we have had more than enough. Let the government finish and let`s vote again is better to grow up. And believe me I agree with most of what people here say Iam not glad at all Iam not a goverment supporter...but let the militars do their job but their job isn`t ruling a country...just my opinion. And I share the same concern ......
 
LostinBA said:
...her pet imbecile Moreno, her moronic corrupt VP Boudou, and the Campora who are basically a bunch of children without any experience running essential state enterprises,
If there is any risk of a military takeover in the next crisis, I think it would be because la presidenta has eliminated all alternate centers of political power in the country, so - at least in the public's mind - there's no one ready to take over when she goes.

The Argentine military is weak, underfunded, and despondent, but the military culture survives and, as an Argentine friend recently pointed out, "podría recuperarse rapidamente" if military leaders felt the country were under serious threat.

That said, I think another military government is really, really unlikely. (Among other things, they learned their lesson the last time around!) More likely is a series of governments lasting 1 day to 1 month and led by the usual suspects like those you mention - you can add Anibal Fernandez to your list of corrupt incompetents - until some current or former provincial governor emerges like Kirchner did in 2003. Binner? Scioli? Maybe even Macri.
 
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