moving in october relocating from US

[Patrickggg]

i have lived abroad previously london, i didnt take many articles with the move. i intend to stay at least 2 years, is it worth shipping my car and furniture etc. i notice that apartments are fairly inexpensve compared to the us big cities, are prices appreciatinng>? is it worth buying, is the soho area best im 38 single fella that wants to be in the middle of things but not kept up every night.. thanks

 

[soulskier]

You don't want to bring your car for a couple of reasons. For one, Argentina has a 80% import tax on vehicles. Also, no need to have a car if you plan to live in BA.
Apartments have been appreciating 10-15% per year for the last few years. I agree, they are still a bargain, compared to another world class cities.
Other's on the board could probrably comment more on where to live.
Congrats on your decision to relocate, your gonna love it!

 

[Matty]

Maybe Patrick has a kick-ass car and would just blend in in Soho with it....did we ever consider that....but you can always buy the latest year model brand spankin' new car/ SUV (Audi's, BMW's, Benz, Porsche ) here as well. Condos are inexpensive here and there are endless construction going on..so somewhere in here is a DEAL for you...come on down!

 

[Stanexpat]

The answer to the car question is you can get around the import duty but you would have to be here more than 2 years. Unless you have some really nice stuff the cost of shipping would be more than its worth. You can get around the duties on furniture and personal effects as well but again it takes at least 2 years and some hassle. If you are coming for only 2 years you definitely shouldn't buy property(even if the property went up in price you would be lucky to recover the transaction costs in two years ). Property has been going up but I believe that game may be over. There is a lot of uncertainty right now in the country and real estate people have been telling me the market is dead right now as a result. A year from now it could be better or property could or easily be worth a lot less than it is today. I think the risk of a decline in prices has increased substantially in the last 6 months.

 

[danc]

I read alot of post on this forum, over the last year, predicting a drastic fall in BA property prices. I would like to better understand the economic reasons why you feel this way? Because interest rates are so high, the amount of mortage financed properties are extremely low, thus eliminating most speculation. Buyers are using 100% cash to buy property. Speculation is what drives prices higher/lower rapidly. In this environment where I see little speculation, what will drive property prices lower?

 

[soulskier]

Danc, I think you ask a great question. Furthermore, how far can prices fall if they are already at a fraction of what a similar apartment in a similar world class city would cost? Anxious to hear the views on this.

 

[Stanexpat]

To answer this question just look at what has happened locally. 2002 prices collapsed and a lot of overseas buyers came in looking for bargins. Price in some parts of B.A. have a least doubled or more since then. The run up in prices has all but closed the market for most of the locals.The current prices can only be maintained if a steady supply of overseas buyers continue to arrive. I think there are two big problems with this:1. Political turmoil, high crime, high inflation, all of which are happening now could significantly and negatively change perceptions of B.A. as a place to visit or live.
2. For several years there was a worldwide real estate boom which is now over. People who viewed real estate as a can't lose investment are now being educated otherwise. I think it's a safe bet that a lot fewer people will be investing in real estate here or anywhere else for the next few years at least. These two points in my opinion argue strongly that the number of buyers from outside Argentina are going to decline, probably significantly from recent years. If that happens there will be more sellers than buyers and prices would fall. If it got bad enough prices would have to fall to a point where property again was affordable to the locals.

 

[danc]

Why do you think property prices have escalated beyond the local population's ability to pay? The economy has drastically improved since 2002, employment is way up, people are making money...My local friends have no problem buying property. I would be curious to find stats on this, but my my hunch is most of the property is being purchased by locals who have little faith in the local banking system, not foreign speculators who have to plunk down 100% cash to buy a place. For locals, propery is the only safe place to invest their savings and for those foreigners willing to make the leap i feel they are generally in it for the long haul. IMHO: I could maybe see a flattening of prices, but not a decrease.

 

[Stanexpat]

DancYou are right there are no statistics here to support any of this. I didn't mean to say that no Argentines can buy property. An apartment say in 2002 that could be had for $100k is now say $300k. The Argentine that could buy the apartment in 2002 couldn't buy it today. The Argentine can still buy the $100k apartment but not the same apartment as he could a few years ago(i.e. he buying one a lot smaller and not as nice).
If you are right that Argentines are what supports the market and not foreigners then we have even a bigger problem. With 30% inflation do you think the average Argentine has more or less to spend on housing than a year ago? The inflation is eroding their purchasing power as wages are not keeping up. More and more people are slipping into poverty as a result, and fewer and fewer people have the resources to buy property.
If it's not foreigners and the locals are getting squeezed what's going to hold up prices?
Some people may believe real estate is a hedge against inflation but I don't see how you can make an argument supporting this. Real estate prices sooner or later have to track to local incomes. When the owner of the $300k apartment wants to sell if there are no foreign buyers and the locals can't afford it the price will have to drop.In the current climate in the world and in Argentina I can see a lot more reasons for properties to fall in value in B.A. then to increase.

 

[Matty]

Patrick, you are young male, free and most probably good looking with money and time on your hands, with the enthusiasm to party 'til the sun come up and enjoy life a little bit more - everything is just mere incidentals...come to BA and enjoy yourself. Hot women will love you here. Just wing it - that is part of the adventure. And since you are technically not really relocating but going to take up 2 yr temp. residence, I am sure you will enjoy it here.