Next Official Devaluation

[estebandepraga]

I am not an economist(and often the ones I know or hear are much more off of what I predict!)
However, I was watching a panel with "respected Argentine economists" from Cronista, Ambito, etc and they all predict an approx 20% OFFICIAL devaluation of the peso in January or maybe February. 1 usd at 10ARS is what what discussed.

Any thoughts?

 

[rrptownley]

This is what should happen, letting off the steam under the pressures that amount at this time of year with soy harvests and holiday season. There has been a displacement of the position of Central Bank Governor, and the new one swore that there would be no further devaluation of the peso, in-line with the current governments wishes.

That is what I understand so far. Whether the new governor will or can block any movement to devaluate the peso I do not know.

Edit- I'm saving changing any blue dollars until February.

 

[Rich One]

True no further devaluations This YEAR My Crystal Ball exploded ... have no answer why the additional pressures and controls brought no sharp increase???

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

Some govt economists would like too vs they can't because they'd get various promises about no devaluations lobbed back into their faces.

The populism will be pure and unabashed next year basically.

 

[Brunette36]

I think there's likely to be an official devaluation soon. It might not have a big impact but more and more Argentinians have been buying US$ at an official rate because the AFIP authorises them and selling the dollars in the black market despite the extra charges they face when they withdraw the cash. Most of the people I know do this on a regular basis.

 

[wild_horses]

It wont be a devaluation, not this year, not next one. Get use to a subsidize dollar.

 

[wild_horses]

I think there's likely to be an official devaluation soon. It might not have a big impact but more and more Argentinians have been buying US$ at an official rate because the AFIP authorises them and selling the dollars in the black market despite the extra charges they face when they withdraw the cash. Most of the people I know do this on a regular basis.

That is illegal and it's hurting the economy. You should report that people to the AFIP.

 

[thorsten]

It wont be a devaluation, not this year, not next one. Get use to a subsidize dollar.

You are right, they will probably call it a foreign currency revaluation, just to keep the little camporistas happily in their fairyland.

 

[Brunette36]

'Those people' you mean? I would have to report around 50% of the people who are in a position to buy US$ at an official rate in this country. Argentinians suck in that sense but our government is so amateur that they are selling dollars to ahorritas rather than give the dollars to companies which need to import spare parts and the like.

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

That is illegal and it's hurting the economy. You should report that people to the AFIP.

Good one. Seriously, that's the funniest thing I've read this year.

Let's call AFIP and tell them that we think, but we're not totally sure, that maybe, just maybe there are hundreds of cuevas which have been operating under their noses for the last decade. We could could even tip them off that some of them operate in plain sight on Florida.

I think you might just be about to crack this one open Sherlock. Careful not to implicate any FpV faithful though. No doubt all their dollars, hotels and handbags are all accounted for. Not one champagne militant among them...