Russia Needin' Argentina Grains

[ajoknoblauch]

Argentina I hear is aligning with Russia more, and with Putin. I think this will be good for life and freedom in Argentina as it gives it some shielding from US meddling, and the US has become insane lately with its meddling around the world. It may also be good for expats who want to be free from possible US govt. harrassment of various kinds.

Russia, fortunately, doesn't meddle with anybody. Consider their benign neglect of Ukraine!

 

[R.B.]

Ah, yes, finally Argentina has a chance to get out from under the thumb of the U.S., who constantly "meddles" with Argentina for access to its natural resources. Now it will finally experience that euphoric sense of freedom that comes with a close alliance with Vladimir Putin. The good people of Belarus await with open arms to welcome Argentina to the club.

What's that? The U.S. doesn't import any significant amount of grain from Argentina (in keeping with the title of this thread)? Nor does Russia? But wait...I just watched a news report in Russian on YouTube that told me the dawn of a new era had arrived. I know 80+ percent of all Argentine soybean exports go to China, but a Russian reporter highlighted Argentine soy production so that must mean Argentina and Russia will become essential trading partners, right? Forget that Argentine soybean quality was so poor this year that the entire export industry took a bath on every shipment of Argentine soy and soy by-products.

But what about the other grains that Argentina has in abundance like corn and wheat? Well, wheat exports have been capped by the government at 1.5 million metric tons, and you can bet your bottom dollar that damn near all of it will go to Brazil. As for corn, Russia imported 818 metric tons out of the 16,750,290 metric tons that Argentina sent to export between March 2012 and February 2013 (the latest info available). For those of you who aren't math people, that accounts for about 0.005% of Argentine corn exports. To add some perspective, the U.S. (that evil country who is always "meddling" with Argentina) imported about 67,000 metric tons of Argentine corn. That is less than one Panamax shipment or about 0.40% of all Argentine corn exports.

I can't speak on beef as I am not involved with that particular commodity, but as for this idea that Argentina's grains will form the base of an iron-clad alliance between Russia and Argentina which will finally rid Argentina of the (imaginary) yoke of U.S. "meddling".....I call bullshit.

*All data comes from the Argentine Agriculture Ministry's latest information.

 

[Matt84]

Bravo R.B. !!!
What about Uruguayan and Paraguayan cereals? Where do they go?

 

[R.B.]

While I do not have numbers handy, they are in the same markets as Argentina for soybeans, soybean by-products, corn, and wheat.

Soybeans go to China with Europe as a much smaller secondary market.
Corn will go to regional importers like Colombia/Peru and the rest will head to east Asia. Some to North Africa/Middle East.
Wheat will head to Brazil mostly (Mercosur incentives) with a small bit heading to North Africa/Middle East.

 

[Hybrid Ambassador]

Well, when China lent Argentina last July the sum of US$7.5 Billion then the PRC has the right for alot of grains from Argentina into the foreseeable future, thus Russia has to make deal with their neighbour country to see how little the Chinese would allow Russia for Argentine grains.

 

[polostar88]

It remains to be seen how much food Brazil and Argentina will now sell to Russia from this point. RB does a good job of explaining past and current situation, but the whole point is that US-Euro sanctions and counter-sanctions by Russia are leading to new global alignments; for example a Russia-China block is being strengthened (Russia will start selling its gas and oil to China instead of Europe) and the EU countries are now complaining that Argentina and Brazil aren't playing nice and will sell directly to Russia. So, let's wait and see how things will change. It's looking much like Germany and other European nations are going to refuse to go along with US sanctions, which are only ruining the fragile European economies.

For one, I'd feel safer as an expat in Argentina knowing that they are aligned with a rival of the US, no matter who that is. Russia, or any country in Eurasia, is too far and probably too uninterested to do anything bad in Argentina, other than act as a counterweight to the US. The US by contrast has begun to harrass expats and others (see FATCA, and what others have said). The US is flat broke, has a phony economy based on usury and on the artificial strength of the dollar, which it is desperately trying to uphold, in part by starting (ineffective) wars around the world, in part now by trying to block the new BRICS fund, in part by harrassing and trying to dispossess those of its citizens who are not politically connected or who speak up (see Snowden). It is furthermore extremely meddlesome to its friends, and aggressive in trying to change local cultures. I think with the discrediting of the US for the past decade in the middle East and elsewhere, countries are noticing it is both aggressive and weak, basically an irrational power not to be taken seriously, but which can still do great damage to others, and are abandoning the sinking ship accordingly.

The economic relationship with Russia is only a part of the policy, I think Argentina's realignment will be much broader, and will be good for both Argentines and expats.

One reason grains aren't going to be the basis of the new relationship with Russia, by the way, is because Russia is one of the largest wheat producers in the world. So RB, your comments are really neither here nor there. We don't know what's going to happen now that sanctions are in place, or how much Brazil, Argentina will sell to Russia.

 

[Hybrid Ambassador]

But of course, the EU soon has got go under the US led Russia's squeezing scheme, due to needing Russia's business given to them. Germany alone has more than 3500 firms doing business and supplying all kinds of technology to them and reaping least US$10 billions annually from the mother Russia. Then follows France and UK, they all benefitting a big time business from the Russians. Then wait a few more month till weather getting a bit colder in the EU then suddenly the heating and cooking energy flow into the EU starts sporadically but surely scarce. The EU knows that going along with the Empire is not beneficial and had to cutout the US rather sooner than later.. It is a win,win situation for Argentina by selling to Russia amidst any adversity from the G7's nations.

 

[Matiasba]

For those who understand spanish:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y4ZwQsywEI&feature=youtu.be

 

[Rich One]

For those who understand spanish:

Let's see how it works out Sort of a 678 bis

 

[Matiasba]

Let's see how it works out Sort of a 678 bis

Nada mas lejos de la realidad. I challenge you to find something of Brieger talking of Kirchnerismo. He is an excellent professor, sociologist from my faculty, a guy who studied middle east a lot, he is a cathedratic, travelled lots of times, speaks perfect french, english, Yddish, he even wrote a number of books. He is extremely careful of appear talking about national politics, although he is cleary closer to Vision 7 than to CNN (where he even worked as a consultant some years ago).

He is an eminence on middle east, I dont know anyone who knows more than him. I deeply admire him.