Scary Argentine Budget!

But in all reality relating to Argentina and economic reporting I think it just near on to impossible to make a clear estimations. Because it seems like there is always some fluff along the path of any analysis. Just about all economic formulas or predictions are going to have fluff in them which is by no means unique to Argentina. The government reports fluff, the opposition in the news reports fluff. And 2 X fluff / 3 = fluff. So I sort of gave up on trying get what is going on over there really. Its just a fluff war the way I see it.. Vulture fluff, inflation fluff, opposition fluff what the fluff?
 
Rich my point is very simple:

The press is painting the deficit as a problem (it's not) in order to push certain policies (e.g. drastic spending cuts, aka austerity). Argentina has certain macroeconomic problems, but its debt/GDP ratio is not one of them.

You bring up Kenya and Ethiopia. Are you saying Argentina should change its economic policies to please foreign investors the way those two model economies have?

Furthermore you seem to be confusing the Confidence Fairy with confidence. Go back and read the article again.

Thanks Ed...
We do agree on something the problem is not the GDP/Debt ratio...!

However you didn't address the question of Why other countries have higher Confidence from Foreign Investors :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: Answer Please ! :rolleyes:

You answered with more questions as to the policies of Kenya and Ethiopia, which I know nothing about, or the Interpretation of the Confidence Fairy, which has no relevance whatsoever.
 
Rich the whole point about the confidence fairy is to address the issue of commentators' constant pearl clutching about investor confidence, just as you are doing.

Some policies, such as those in Kenya and Ethiopia are aimed at pleasing investors; other policies, such as those in Japan (and to a lesser degree recently in Argentina) are rather aimed at fostering internal markets instead of prostrating the internal economy to foreign capital.

Since you know nothing of Kenya and Ethiopia's economies I can give you a quick sketch: most of the people live at a subsistence level beyond what has ever been experienced here. In both countries (at least since the end of Ethiopia's civil war in the early 90s) have focused on privatising resources and minimising social programmes. Investors just love that kind of crap, although it's not so good for 98% of the population.

The point is: who should policy be developed for? Investors whose goals are almost always contrary to the good of the majority or the masses; or to quote Adam Smith on this topic:

[font=Times New Roman']The rate of profit does not, like rent and wages, rise with the prosperity and fall with the declension of the society. On the contrary, it is naturally low in rich and high in poor countries, and it is always highest in the countries which are going fastest to ruin. The interest of this third order [investors], therefore, has not the same connection with the general interest of the society as that of the other two. Merchants and master manufacturers are, in this order, the two classes of people who commonly employ the largest capitals, and who by their wealth draw to themselves the greatest share of the public consideration.... As their thoughts are commonly exercised rather about the interest of their own particular branch of business, than about that of the society, their judgment, even when given with the greatest candour (which it has not been upon every occasion) is much more to be depended upon with regard to the former of those two objects than with regard to the latter. Their superiority over the country gentleman is not so much in their knowledge of the public interest, as in their having a better knowledge of their own interest than he has of his. It is by this superior knowledge of their own interest that they have frequently imposed upon his generosity, and persuaded him to give up both his own interest and that of the public, from a very simple but honest conviction that their interest, and not his, was the interest of the public. The interest of the dealers, however, in any particular branch of trade or manufactures, is always in some respects different from, and even opposite to, that of the public. To widen the market and to narrow the competition, is always the interest of the dealers. To widen the market may frequently be agreeable enough to the interest of the public; but to narrow the competition must always be against it, and can serve only to enable the dealers, by raising their profits above what they naturally would be, to levy, for their own benefit, an absurd tax upon the rest of their fellow-citizens. The proposal of any new law or regulation of commerce which comes from this order ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men whose interest is never exactly the same with that of the public, who have generally an interest to deceive and even to oppress the public, and who accordingly have, upon many occasions, both deceived and oppressed it.[/font]
 
Rich the whole point about the confidence fairy is to address the issue of commentators' constant pearl clutching about investor confidence, just as you are doing.

Some policies, such as those in Kenya and Ethiopia are aimed at pleasing investors; other policies, such as those in Japan (and to a lesser degree recently in Argentina) are rather aimed at fostering internal markets instead of prostrating the internal economy to foreign capital.

Since you know nothing of Kenya and Ethiopia's economies I can give you a quick sketch: most of the people live at a subsistence level beyond what has ever been experienced here. In both countries (at least since the end of Ethiopia's civil war in the early 90s) have focused on privatising resources and minimising social programmes. Investors just love that kind of crap, although it's not so good for 98% of the population.

The point is: who should policy be developed for? Investors whose goals are almost always contrary to the good of the majority or the masses; or to quote Adam Smith on this topic:

[font=Times New Roman']The rate of profit does not, like rent and wages, rise with the prosperity and fall with the declension of the society. On the contrary, it is naturally low in rich and high in poor countries, and it is always highest in the countries which are going fastest to ruin. The interest of this third order [investors], therefore, has not the same connection with the general interest of the society as that of the other two. Merchants and master manufacturers are, in this order, the two classes of people who commonly employ the largest capitals, and who by their wealth draw to themselves the greatest share of the public consideration.... As their thoughts are commonly exercised rather about the interest of their own particular branch of business, than about that of the society, their judgment, even when given with the greatest candour (which it has not been upon every occasion) is much more to be depended upon with regard to the former of those two objects than with regard to the latter. Their superiority over the country gentleman is not so much in their knowledge of the public interest, as in their having a better knowledge of their own interest than he has of his. It is by this superior knowledge of their own interest that they have frequently imposed upon his generosity, and persuaded him to give up both his own interest and that of the public, from a very simple but honest conviction that their interest, and not his, was the interest of the public. The interest of the dealers, however, in any particular branch of trade or manufactures, is always in some respects different from, and even opposite to, that of the public. To widen the market and to narrow the competition, is always the interest of the dealers. To widen the market may frequently be agreeable enough to the interest of the public; but to narrow the competition must always be against it, and can serve only to enable the dealers, by raising their profits above what they naturally would be, to levy, for their own benefit, an absurd tax upon the rest of their fellow-citizens. The proposal of any new law or regulation of commerce which comes from this order ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men whose interest is never exactly the same with that of the public, who have generally an interest to deceive and even to oppress the public, and who accordingly have, upon many occasions, both deceived and oppressed it.[/font]

I can tell you one thing for sure and most of the general public is not fully aware of this because only a few people get into these realms in business. As you go up in the world of business the corruption increases exponentially. Its very difficult at times because there are many people (not all) that you are dealing with who are absolutely psychopathic. But not the kind that will break the law because they know better. But they have absolutely no concern or feelings for anyone or anything but themselves and their objectives. They will lie, cheat, steal and manipulate in ways that are just mind blowing. And of course they have mastered doing all of that legally. I have seen things that are quite frankly unbelievable but what baffles me even more is that the people being cheated and manipulated will often swear by the products, services, politicians etc that are doing it. And it can be almost impossible to get these people to think outside of the box of what they have been conditioned to think or believe. Thats how powerful marketing and propaganda can be.

Your only defense is critical thinking but the large majority of humanity does not want to bother with understanding anything beyond watching sports and opening bags of potato chips.
 
Rich the whole point about the confidence fairy is to address the issue of commentators' constant pearl clutching about investor confidence, just as you are doing.

Some policies, such as those in Kenya and Ethiopia are aimed at pleasing investors; other policies, such as those in Japan (and to a lesser degree recently in Argentina) are rather aimed at fostering internal markets instead of prostrating the internal economy to foreign capital.

Since you know nothing of Kenya and Ethiopia's economies I can give you a quick sketch: most of the people live at a subsistence level beyond what has ever been experienced here. In both countries (at least since the end of Ethiopia's civil war in the early 90s) have focused on privatising resources and minimising social programmes. Investors just love that kind of crap, although it's not so good for 98% of the population.

The point is: who should policy be developed for? Investors whose goals are almost always contrary to the good of the majority or the masses; or to quote Adam Smith on this topic:

[font=Times New Roman']The rate of profit does not, like rent and wages, rise with the prosperity and fall with the declension of the society. On the contrary, it is naturally low in rich and high in poor countries, and it is always highest in the countries which are going fastest to ruin. The interest of this third order [investors], therefore, has not the same connection with the general interest of the society as that of the other two. Merchants and master manufacturers are, in this order, the two classes of people who commonly employ the largest capitals, and who by their wealth draw to themselves the greatest share of the public consideration.... As their thoughts are commonly exercised rather about the interest of their own particular branch of business, than about that of the society, their judgment, even when given with the greatest candour (which it has not been upon every occasion) is much more to be depended upon with regard to the former of those two objects than with regard to the latter. Their superiority over the country gentleman is not so much in their knowledge of the public interest, as in their having a better knowledge of their own interest than he has of his. It is by this superior knowledge of their own interest that they have frequently imposed upon his generosity, and persuaded him to give up both his own interest and that of the public, from a very simple but honest conviction that their interest, and not his, was the interest of the public. The interest of the dealers, however, in any particular branch of trade or manufactures, is always in some respects different from, and even opposite to, that of the public. To widen the market and to narrow the competition, is always the interest of the dealers. To widen the market may frequently be agreeable enough to the interest of the public; but to narrow the competition must always be against it, and can serve only to enable the dealers, by raising their profits above what they naturally would be, to levy, for their own benefit, an absurd tax upon the rest of their fellow-citizens. The proposal of any new law or regulation of commerce which comes from this order ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men whose interest is never exactly the same with that of the public, who have generally an interest to deceive and even to oppress the public, and who accordingly have, upon many occasions, both deceived and oppressed it.[/font]


Thanks for educating me about Ethiopia's Economy...! all I knew about it was the Civil War, the refugees, the hunger, the Pirates, the sea hijackers like in Tom Hanks movie and the rebel guerrillas like in Black Hawk Down...!

I'm floored by the fact that Ethiopia HAS a Central Government that sets Economic Policies, (with clauses depriving the population), that can attract more Foreign investment than Kicillof can, even at lower interest rates ?, but as you said investors like that kind of Crap. :cool: (Perhaps too much )

Adam Smith as well as Karl Marx addressed the reality of the XVIII and XIX centuries wonder what would they Write Today?? :rolleyes:
 
Thanks for educating me about Ethiopia's Economy...! all I knew about it was the Civil War, the refugees, the hunger, the Pirates, the sea hijackers like in Tom Hanks movie and the rebel guerrillas like in Black Hawk Down...!

I'm floored by the fact that Ethiopia HAS a Central Government that sets Economic Policies, (with clauses depriving the population), that can attract more Foreign investment than Kicillof can, even at lower interest rates ?, but as you said investors like that kind of Crap. :cool: (Perhaps too much )

Adam Smith as well as Karl Marx addressed the reality of the XVIII and XIX centuries wonder what would they Write Today?? :rolleyes:

Contains some interesting info: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/22/-sp-ethiopia-30-years-famine-human-rights
 
Thanks for educating me about Ethiopia's Economy...! all I knew about it was the Civil War, the refugees, the hunger, the Pirates, the sea hijackers like in Tom Hanks movie and the rebel guerrillas like in Black Hawk Down...!

Maybe you meant Somalia? The Ethiopian civil war ended with the end of the cold war, and Ethiopia has had a working government ever since.
 
Since you know nothing of Kenya and Ethiopia's economies I can give you a quick sketch: most of the people live at a subsistence level beyond what has ever been experienced here. In both countries (at least since the end of Ethiopia's civil war in the early 90s) have focused on privatising resources and minimising social programmes. Investors just love that kind of crap, although it's not so good for 98% of the population.

Well, let's not forget to mention that between 2000 and 2013, Ethiopia had the 3rd greatest Human Development Index improvement in the world. The GNI per capital almost doubled, from $567 to $1,000. Average life expectancy went from 50 to 62 years. Child mortality rate IMPLODED, and in less then one generation went from 175 per thousand to 44 per thousand.

It is a very poor country still, but the improvements have been nothing short of dramatic. And that was done without corralitos, confiscation of property and other Argentinian/Zimbabwean type of policies.
 

Very Interesting many thanks need to be updated.....
The quote I liked the most was ;

[font=Guardian Text Egyptian Web']One senior official said: “The most basic human right is food on the table. If we’re doing that, why would we violate other human rights? This is a safe, secure place and we want to keep it that way. We’ll do anything to keep it that way. We have 90 million people – you try to control them.”[/font]
[font=Guardian Text Egyptian Web']•[/font]
 
Maybe you meant Somalia? The Ethiopian civil war ended with the end of the cold war, and Ethiopia has had a working government ever since.

Some of the events I mentioned pertain to Somalia....!
 
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