Significant news about peso exchange rate

[surfing]

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1478649-...el-dolar-abriria-a-510-en-las-casas-de-cambio

 

[el_expatriado]

We live in interesting times. It still remains to be seen whether they can control the CCL dolar or the dolar bono. Maybe they can control the blue dollar, but I don't know if they can control everything else. It remains to be seen.

Of course, if they just opened up the official market a bit and let everyone buy $300-500 USD per month they could easily end all of this. Purchases by individuals for personal savings are nothing in the grand scheme of things. I think something like 120 companies account for 80% of all the dollars bought on the open market. Individual purchases are really insignificant.

 

[sesamosinsal]

Individual purchases are really insignificant.

But with a shrinking national economy, a $12 billion USD energy bill, and the prospects for slower growth worldwide, trying to keep every single dollar is the easiest decision to make. Sure, they could do this and that to make Argentina more competitive and increase inflows of USD, but these are moves that have to be planned. The current government prefers the path of least resistance and political expedience. This is why they continually have to backtrack on so many decisions.

 

[el_expatriado]

That's why I am saying, I don't know if this is going to be effective or not. These kirchneristas have tried price controls for years now with food and everything else and it never worked.

Just because Aníbal Fernandez says the dollar is going to be worth $5.10 on Monday doesn't make it so. I can guarantee if the dollar is worth $5.10 on Monday they are going to run out of dollars to sell within 15 minutes because everyone is going to buy them all up. And who is going to sell their dollars for $5.10, really? What they are going to create is a shortage.

We will have 3 dollars... the official dollar at 4.50, the blue dollar at 5.10 sold by the biggest exchange houses, and a new underground dollar back at 6 sold by the small exchange houses.

You will have a black market spring up within the black market. The moment the government starts to control the black market, it is no longer the black market and a new black market will appear.

Very strange stuff indeed.

 

[TERKILD]

If you ask me: GREAT buying opportunity for getting the dollar!
Wont last long or work as a problem solver.....

 

[sesamosinsal]

Just because Aníbal Fernandez says the dollar is going to be worth $5.10 on Monday doesn't make it so. I can guarantee if the dollar is worth $5.10 on Monday they are going to run out of dollars to sell within 15 minutes because everyone is going to buy them all up. And who is going to sell their dollars for $5.10, really? What they are going to create is a shortage.

If the restrictions on the sale of dollars don't change, then the only thing I can see happening is that the price of the black market dollar will go up. Perhaps they're betting on this, and hope that it goes up so high (>$6.00 ARS) that it will be unattainable for most. According to some news articles, people were less interested in buying at that level, which is why it has receded a bit from that level.

However, if this report is true, the government is officially acknowledging that the USD/ARS should be ~$5.10 ARS. Given the source (the government), $5.10 should be taken as a less than conservative estimate. Without addressing the restrictions, this will only fuel speculation that the peso is on the verge of a major devaluation, and could whet the Argentine appetite for a dollar at $6.00 or higher.

 

[surfing]

Qué Quilombo!

 

[nikad]

These people ( the govt ) are very tricky, I remember when they lowered the usd in the middle of the campo protests, they kept it around 3 pesos for several months. 5.1 seems too cheap imho. Also they talk about exchange houses, not the small financieras or cuevas. As far as I know, exchange houses had to get Afip authorization to sell dollars to individuals. It is all really confusing at the moment. If I get the chance to buy at 5.1$ I will be all over it.

 

[nikad]

http://finanzas.iprofesional.com/no...unto-debe-valer-el-blue-si-quieren-sobrevivir

 

[TERKILD]

Hahaha, to make it more clear Nikad....:
The huge lines in front of the casa de cambio on monday, will not be limited to dollar sellers I guess!!!