Some unpleasant arithmetic: Let's go liberty

feel like a broken record at this point, but nobody, least of all his supporters, can demonstrate how he plans to dollarize without
throwing the country in to free fall or a 10,000/1 exchange rate.
Yes. The posted article has similar thoughts. From the author:
“Roughly speaking, and after considering all of the above, it’s estimated that the Central Bank needs to find 35 to 45 billion USD to clean up its act and manage dollarization without hyperinflation. So what are the actually feasible routes to scrounge up enough USD to dollarize the economy? Broadly speaking, Milei’s team makes three different cases:”

She goes on to explain the three cases, which are all not feasible.
 
- Downgrade ties to Brazil and China (Argentina's 1st and 2nd largest trading partners)
- Attack Chile (4th largest trading partner)
- Loosen gun restrictions
- End more of women's rights (including ability to get abortion)
- Dollarize (I'd be all for this if someone can show me a realistic pathway for this mapped out).

And I'm more pro-business than anyone but being open to selling your organs, selling your children...ha,ha. Common. That's just whacky.


There are other things. Just do a google search. I'm not even saying I wouldn't vote for him because actually I think he is a better option than status quo. It's just that much like Trump, if he showed some restraint, wasn't falling in love with himself than he would appeal to a much broader base. As it stands now, if he just showed some restraint, I'd vote for him. But the more he yells, the more I get turned off.
SELLING CHILDREN?
 
SELLING CHILDREN?
Didn't Madonna, Angelina Jolie, Oprah and that crowd buy some children while being applauded by all those notorious and important people under the pretext of donations and ''helping''??? Do you really think if Bill Gates needs a transplant will wait his turn on the long list of people that need transplants? ,
For the record i am against selling children or organs but some have been practicing that precise thing for a long while.
 
There have been many instances of currency reforms where 1 new peso/rouble/tugrik replaced 1,000 old ones. These transitions generally went smoothly. The next day, prices expressed in new units would be 1,000 times lower, just as salaries would be.
Redenomination and dollarization are fairly distinct concepts though. Argentina has done the first many times, but each time it was able to print a new currency in it's place. Dollarization requires establishing a fixed exchange rate, and what I'm hung up on is where we're getting the money from, we don't have 40 billion dollars in the BCRA reserves.
He has many interviews about dolarizacion and the options of how to go about it, and the way that they would most likely do it.
“Roughly speaking, and after considering all of the above, it’s estimated that the Central Bank needs to find 35 to 45 billion USD to clean up its act and manage dollarization without hyperinflation.

She goes on to explain the three cases, which are all not feasible.
This right here is the crux of the problem: again who is lending us the money? you know, the country that has defaulted on it's sovereign debt NINE times. I keep seeing Milei/his supporters saying him sitting in the Casa Rosada alone will inspire confidence to get loans, but does anyone actually believe this? This isn't actually an answer, it's a hope, and if anyone remember's Macri's hope for a "lluvia de inversiones" you'll forgive me if I'm not holding my breath.

The only way I'd lend money to Argentina if I was an institution or a person would be via payday lending rates secured against assets held abroad such as embassy buildings, Aerolineas Argentinas fleet, deposits in banks in other countries in currencies other than pesos, etc and I'm pretty sure our collective assets are not worth anything close to this.

Maybe I should rephrase my question: I get how Milei wants to do this, but who is going to lend us the money, and at what exchange/interest rate?
 
Redenomination and dollarization are fairly distinct concepts though. Argentina has done the first many times, but each time it was able to print a new currency in it's place. Dollarization requires establishing a fixed exchange rate, and what I'm hung up on is where we're getting the money from, we don't have 40 billion dollars in the BCRA reserves.


This right here is the crux of the problem: again who is lending us the money? you know, the country that has defaulted on it's sovereign debt NINE times. I keep seeing Milei/his supporters saying him sitting in the Casa Rosada alone will inspire confidence to get loans, but does anyone actually believe this? This isn't actually an answer, it's a hope, and if anyone remember's Macri's hope for a "lluvia de inversiones" you'll forgive me if I'm not holding my breath.

The only way I'd lend money to Argentina if I was an institution or a person would be via payday lending rates secured against assets held abroad such as embassy buildings, Aerolineas Argentinas fleet, deposits in banks in other countries in currencies other than pesos, etc and I'm pretty sure our collective assets are not worth anything close to this.

Maybe I should rephrase my question: I get how Milei wants to do this, but who is going to lend us the money, and at what exchange/interest rate?
No one will loan the money. People keep talking about all these billions held abroad by locals. No one is going to rush to bring anything back. They already did many tax amnesties to bring undeclared income from abroad. I guess it wouldn't hurt to come up with some new amnesty program where you promise not to prosecute locals for evading taxes. You give them an amnesty period of X months to bring all their funds back and as long as it's invested in real estate, local businesses, etc. they will pay NO tax on it.

There would still be a lot of mistrust and I just doubt many locals would want to but it's going to take something really really drastic to get all those billions back in the country.

I can't see any scenario where people are loaning yet more money. Argentina is broken and no one can easily fix it. As many people mentioned, it's going to take many, many years of structural reforms, changing of laws and creative thinking to get themselves out of this mess.

I don't think any expats have to worry at all in the short-term that the situation will improve too drastically. JMHO. For as much as I love the country, it's wickedly messed up.
 
Click anywhere on the article in Spanish to open the menu. Next click on Translate to English.
24 August 2023 by Sofia Diamante
Dollar, inflation and stocks: what do six economic leaders who listen to the red circle think? Although the business community
and political leaders were the main protagonists of the Council of the Americas, there were several economists who were present at the
meeting held this Thursday at the Alvear hotel.

Among others were Pablo Guidotti and Javier Ortiz Batalla, two analysts who are part of the economic team led by Luciano Laspina,
the main referent of the presidential candidate Patricia Bullrich. There was also the referent of the Partido Radical, Eduardo Levy Yeyati,
who confirmed that he will be part of the economic team that will be presented by Bullrich this Friday. In dialogue with LA NACION, in separate conversations, the six said that inflation will remain high in the coming months and that, in the year, the price variation could be between 150%
and 200%. However, they showed differences when analyzing the removal of the foreign exchange restrictions...
 
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