Spike In Blue Rate

[Ceviche]

whats the latest prediction for blue rate? I believe it has dropped after holidays!

 

[splaying]

you are correct it dropped from 8.4 to 8.32 a 0.0095238 drop .. someone should keep a daily chart on the differences and percentage changes day for day .. someone else should graph it.. would keep many people here employed and out of trouble for sure.. we need to have our own charts instead of relying on others then we all might take time to prognosticate the future with the dollar. This might all prove to be interesting dining conversation too. Any opinions?

 

[Ceviche]

Good sarcasm, splaying.

 

[Sleuth]

you are correct it dropped from 8.4 to 8.32 a 0.0095238 drop .. someone should keep a daily chart on the differences and percentage changes day for day .. someone else should graph it.. would keep many people here employed and out of trouble for sure.. we need to have our own charts instead of relying on others then we all might take time to prognosticate the future with the dollar. This might all prove to be interesting dining conversation too. Any opinions?

You mean like this? http://www.ambito.com/economia/mercados/monedas/dolar/info/?ric=ARSB=

I use this site daily...

 

[Inferno.]

Well, both "dollars" are going up and will continue to do so. This is the latest graph that I have from January 2011 to March (27) 2013. The problem with the blue rate is that every spike sets new resistance and support values (roof and floor).

As we can see.. the price of the official is going up every day, it never goes down. If you add the 15% and 20%, the price is trying to get closer to the blue rate (currently at around 6,2), but it fails to do it at the current value.

The blue price is going up faster, is spiking with every mayor event/announcement. It does go down a little after spiking, but it never goes down enough, so it sets a new support value. This means that the base price is always going up. For example, if it was on 5, it spikes to 6,20 and it goes down to 5,90. Then.. it never goes back to 5. I have been saying that what the president of the BCRA was saying was a lie.. she said that the spike was due to vacations. If that was true.. we should see a blue price today of 6,50, not 8,3 or 8. There have been spikes since 2011, 2012.. this is not something new. I believe they have no idea how to handle it.

It's doing it more often everytime.. I only see this going up in the future (both, official and blue).

 

[sesamosinsal]

I believe they have no idea how to handle it.

Well, of course they can't "control" it. It's speculation fueled by the major media groups that do a pretty awful job of informing the folks. Just check out this piece that María Belén Chapur (Yes, former Gov. Mark Sanford's fiance) wrote about the "American miracle" concerning the dollar:

[font=PT Serif']Desde 1971, cuando el dólar perdió su respaldo en oro, éste siguió su carrera ascendente sobre la base pura y exclusiva de la [/font]CONFIANZA del mundo[font=PT Serif'].[/font]

[font=PT Serif']Creo que el dólar tiene para rato.[/font]

This woman is an educated journalist, and she really believes that the value of the dollar is based on "confidence?" This is how Argentines get their news--from ill-informed journalists who don't have a clue about anything that they write. Ms. Chapur didn't even mention the petrodollar! How can anyone really talk about the significance of the dollar in world trade without at least mentioning oil?

Couple ill-informed journalists working for highly politicized media groups with politicians that masquerade as independent, objective economists, there's no wonder why the black market dollar rate is so out of control. How much of this blue dollar is really just good ol' media fear mongering?

 

[Inferno.]

Well, of course they can't "control" it. It's speculation fueled by the major media groups that do a pretty awful job of informing the folks. Just check out this piece that María Belén Chapur (Yes, former Gov. Mark Sanford's fiance) wrote about the "American miracle" concerning the dollar

Yes, they can. Tell me, what's the price of the blue dollar in uruguay? What the price in Germany? What's the price in Brasil? Putting locks, restrictions and fear on the financial market will raise the price of the illegal dollar. It has been doing that for some time. That's whats has been happening for the last year and a half.

Just to prove you that the media DOESN'T have anything to do with it, let's take another case. Venezuela. The official price is today 6.30 for each dollar. The "lechuga", or parallel dollar, is 22.86. The media there CAN'T speak about it. Is illegal to do it with jail time. It has been increasing over time too there. Maduro told the press that he wanted to put in jail the owner of a website that spoke about this, and guess what? The site isn't functional anymore. I hope he was the one that closed it. Thinking that the price is going up *just* for media news? Sorry, but is think that is silly. Clarin, Lanacion.. they don't controle the financial market, such as a few supermarkets don't control the inflation rate. They are just the political scapegoat. And they gain with that because their reputation goes up (important guys who control stuff, buhuhu).

This woman is an educated journalist, and she really believes that the value of the dollar is based on "confidence?" This is how Argentines get their news--from ill-informed journalists who don't have a clue about anything that they write. Ms. Chapur didn't even mention the petrodollar! How can anyone really talk about the significance of the dollar in world trade without at least mentioning oil?

The value of course depends on the confidence, but.. is just one of many variables. Around 67% of the world reserves are in USD, that means the world trust this currency and will continue to do it for some time. I believe until the next world war when other countries try to take control. Perhaps Germany again, Russia, China.. an alliance between Japon+Corea+Russia?.. there are a few candidates but thats for another thread.

Now.. saying that this is just because of confidence.. oh may god. She doesn't have a clue of anything or she has an agenda behind this. But do you want something even worse? Let's take Mercedes Marco Del Pont. She has a degree from the University of Buenos Aires and a Master's Degree at Yale. President of the Central Bank of Argentina.. and she was saying that money emission isn't related to inflation and that the price of the blue was spiking because of vacations. She knows she is lying, but still, she shouldn't be saying those things. She holds a position.. she needs to think before speaking.

Couple ill-informed journalists working for highly politicized media groups with politicians that masquerade as independent, objective economists, there's no wonder why the black market dollar rate is so out of control. How much of this blue dollar is really just good ol' media fear mongering?

I have to disagree with you. The media isn't moving the market. They can create panic, but only among the people that doesn't have much to move the market. If you hear that the price is going up, and you panic.. how much money can you use? The people that base their financial decisions reading Clarin.. don't have a couple of millions laying around to do much damage.

The big players aren't buying or selling because Clarin or La Nacion puts on their newspaper a note saying: "Hell is breaking lose, buy dollars". They are probably the ones who motivate these types of news to sell their dollars at the highest price available. When it goes down a little again... people sell it again and then they re-buy it with a high spread.

But well, this is just my opinion. I'm just a guy who likes to read about the financial market and write in baexpats

 

[John.St]

Well, of course they can't "control" it. It's speculation fueled by the major media groups that do a pretty awful job of informing the folks. ...
Couple ill-informed journalists working for highly politicized media groups with politicians that masquerade as independent, objective economists, there's no wonder why the black market dollar rate is so out of control. How much of this blue dollar is really just good ol' media fear mongering?

Approximately 0%

The simple fact that the average exchange rate in March 2009 was 3.72 AR$ for 1 US$ [1] and that the accumulated inflation since then has been app. 235% makes it impossible to "control" it. 3.72 x 2.35 = 8.74

I have a wad of tickets, a few examples:
Detail prices .............. 2009 March 2013 March
Azucar Fronterita 1 kg ........... 1.99 ..... 6.50
Leche semi descremada bag ........ 2.59 ..... 7.30
La Serenisima Manteca Light 200g . 6.20 .... 16.50
Café Colombiana 1 kg ............ 60.00 ... 164.00

Trousers - have tickets:
Pampero Pantalon de combate date: 2010.04 2011.01 2011.05 2012.03
Pampero Pantalon de combate price: ... 69 ... 105 ... 134 .... 168

[1] Cotización histórica de monedas de la Argentina: http://es.wikipedia....de_la_Argentina

 

[splaying]

Inferno and Sleuth each has contributed worthwhile information to get a clearer depiction of what is happening here to this currency. People need to pay attention to what is going on here however one is limited in how to control their destiny. People are forced to spend all they have today as tomorrow the prices will definitely be higher. The government is holding the prices steady for two months in the grocery stores so they say. It will not last much longer. Will 2001 repeat itself here again? Can Argentina ever pay its bills in the outside world?

 

[Joe]

The Colombian and Chilean Peso have held steady against the US dollar in the last two years and the Peruvian Sol has gotten stronger at the same time that the Argentinian, Venezuelan and Cuban currencies have all lost considerable ground to the US dollar.

Anyone detect a pattern here?