This Is Argentina

Has Macri won or as good as? Or will Scioli still win, and this is nothing more than a bloody nose?
No, Macri hasn't won the presidency, Scioli can still win. The goal of Macri was to go to a runoff and the goal of Scioli was to avoid it. Now, there is a runoff and the results between Macri and Scioli are very close: since the Pasos, Macri improved while Scioli lost votes. It was not just a strategic voting of some Massa voters who wanted to avoid FpV and thus chose Macri.

Why is Vidal winning so important?
BA is the biggest province and was a dominant district of FpV. Imagine the US elections and Alabama votes for a democrat ;) Also, it's the most important province, having more than 1/3 of all national votes and thus a big influence.

Is Macri winning even a good thing?
Not 100% sure about this. IMO Argentina needs to stop its isolation strategy thus killing exports and financing it's works by emptying the reserves and printing money to increase public services. However, the situation is pretty crucial already: you have very low net reserves, the fiscal deficit is increasing and the 'investments' didn't lead to sustainable growth. The necessary changes will hurt and what could happen is that people come aware of the actual situation in the next period and blame it on the new government with the typical reaction of seeking back a "strong leader", i.e., CFK. Most people don't realize that politics is not about short-term figures but about creating potential for the future, so a strategy where you mismanage a country by putting up a burden on future generations to create a good-looking present is pretty appealing if all you care for is your own political success...
 
Is there a new preasident yet? Lanacion is not clear but shows that forward thinking exceptional provinces like san luis (which had elected rodriguez saa) prefer shiny campaign teams that can take argentine politics into the next century: http://www.urgente24.com/sites/default/files/notas/2014/12/18/afiche-massa.jpg
 
RodolfoWalsh said:
I would also like to congratulate Vidal for another reason. In the lead up to now, there has been a lot of overt and implied sexism in the comments disparaging her, so I applaud her for how she, with her victory as an argentina - who did not get the job for being someone's wife -, has shut up some of the macho bullshit about Pvcia BA needing an "hombre fuerte" con "peso politico".
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The First Female BA Governor ,,,, :confused:

Vidal's Husband was elected Intendente of Moron, The husband of someone...?
Vidal received the Voto Negativo against the unspeakable Canibal .
Vidal's experience in the Agro subjects of the Provincia is not known?

TN commentator Carlos Pagni mentioned that yesterday in some BA Province Parishes, Rosary praying circles were held to stop Fernandez form winning the Election :confused: The Lord acted B)
 
Matt84 said:
Is there a new preasident yet? Lanacion is not clear but shows that forward thinking exceptional provinces like san luis (which had elected rodriguez saa) prefer shiny campaign teams that can take argentine politics into the next century: http://www.urgente24...fiche-massa.jpg
Click to expand...

No. Runoff elections. We'll find out who the next president will be on November 22nd if its Scioli or on November 23rd if its Macri.
 
If things are settled economically, one doesn't need the dollar blue. I lived most of my life here getting pesos out of ATMs at a reasonable price, not having to worry about wiring money to cuevas and changing money, worrying about what the exchange rate is today, who has the best rate, is my favorite place closed today by the government, etc. I wouldn't actually mind returning to those times.

The problem I see with Macri actually winning the presidency is that Massa said he would support whichever presidential candidate that won BA Province. Scioli won BA Province. Although looking at the map of individual polities within the province, Macri won the most places, but I guess they didn't have the population.

If the majority of Massa's supporters vote for Scioli in the balotaje, well, Scioli will most likely win. There won't be enough supporters from the other 3 candidates (assuming they all vote for Macri), unless a lot of Massa's supporters vote for Macri as well. It just depends on who Massa throws his support for and how many of his followers follow his recommendation.

I mean, as far as the president goes, FpV won most of the entire country - as expected. I'm thinking Scioli will win the balotaje unless Macri's showing separates Massa's voters from Scioli or Massa for some reason turns his support to Macri.

But it's good to see that FpV lost its majority in the lower chamber of congress, although it kept it amongst the senadores. Still, amongst the diputados, FpV has a pretty good-sized bloc compared to the other parties, though PRO did gain 21 seats where FpV lost 26.

At least it seems that a good part of the population has realized that Cristina's policies need changing. The question is was it enough to really make things change considerably? If Macri somehow wins on November 22, I'll be shocked but very happy. Either way, the next president will still have to deal with a large bloc of FpV in congress, not to mention the judges that support Cristina, as well as any inertia the large bureaucracy put into place by the Ks over the last 12 years have on any real legal changes that are put into place.

Anyway, Argentina seems to have received the ancient Chinese curse of living in interesting times - though that curse started at least 8 years ago.
 
For those who are confused on the presidential election - a candidate must win at least either 45% of the vote outright, or at least 40% of the vote with a 10% lead on the nearest opposition, to win the election without a runoff (balotaje).
 
ElQueso said:
For those who are confused on the presidential election - a candidate must win at least either 45% of the vote outright, or at least 40% of the vote with a 10% lead on the nearest opposition, to win the election without a runoff (balotaje).
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El Queso what about all the rats that will quit a sinking FPV ship .and apply for positions in Macri's ship.

Massa was the Best ... ( Perhaps if Macri is not available on Nov. 22, Massa will be elected.... :rolleyes: ) Maybe a Menem Kirchener Situation?
 
Oh, I don't think there's going to be big desertion on the part of Scioli's supporters. Particularly if they listen to Massa saying he's going to support the winner of BA Province, which was Scioli.
 
I don't think its a sure thing that Massa is going to support Scioli. He knows that Macri needs him more than Scioli does and he's already said he's going to try and leverage his votes with one of them.
 
It may not be a sure thing, but it was a dumb thing to say on election night as he saw he was not going to make it, if he is only going to try to get some political leverage for himself out of it. He could have held his statement until he made a deal with Macri, for example. Nothing's certain here, that's for sure.

And of course, the question is: no matter who Massa supports, are his follwers going to follow his suggestion.

I still believe that Scioli is going to win the runoff, I just hope I'm wrong.
 
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