Updated COVID restrictions on circulation

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antipodean

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it's not going to make any difference whatsoever. we are way beyond this kind of thing doing any good.
Small changes can and do make a difference in the numbers, as we have seen time and again all over the world, but they don't happen overnight. Things will get worse before they get better (natural to expect since it can take 3-14 days to get sick after being infected)

The never-ending lockdown of 2020 didn't help, but with small changes and fairly good compliance with the protocols life went back to "normalish" all the while still having high but manageable levels of infection. There were always hospital beds available for those that needed them.

It is undeniable that recently more people started to disregard the minimal protocols that did exist and things started going crazy - as someone who went out a lot at night over the past months can attest to - crowded nightclubs, packed restaurants, big asados and rowdy house parties where no one wears masks can hardly be a healthy idea in a pandemic like this... whatever protocols they started off with quickly wore off over the past month or so. Add to the mix people who get a little drunk or fumado in these settings and there is simply no stopping them from spreading the love around.
Most of those I know who got COVID partook in something like this in the week or two prior to infection or got it from someone who did.

What does not help at all however is an infectadura-style president who makes drastic off the hip decisions not even based on science or coordinated with his own government and governors while lacking any meaningful economic consideration. Just makes an even bigger mess for someone else to clean up.
 

semigoodlookin

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It seems they have a board with all possible things they can close and then simply pick some at random. There's no sense to it. Also, who really believes the problem will be solved in 15 days? Remember at the start of the lockdown when the government was stringing everybody along with "two more weeks" lockdowns that ended up lasting months? Welcome to 2021.

I am not even against the lockdown, I just see no logic in Alberto's decisions.
 

Alpinista

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It seems they have a board with all possible things they can close and then simply pick some at random. There's no sense to it. Also, who really believes the problem will be solved in 15 days? Remember at the start of the lockdown when the government was stringing everybody along with "two more weeks" lockdowns that ended up lasting months? Welcome to 2021.

I am not even against the lockdown, I just see no logic in Alberto's decisions.
I also have no clue what the logic of these measures could be.

Let's look at the possible scenarios / outcome of how the situation in 14 days could be:
A: the measures lead to a significant reduction in daily cases (unlikely, but who knows)
B: cases remain stable over the next 14 days
C: regardless of the measures, the cases keep rising, causing more and more problems for the sanitarian infrastructure

Which of the scenarios would then justify a relaxing of the measures by the end of April? Probably in case A you could well argue that no new measures would be required. But then there would be a strong case to extend the measures (otherwise what is the point in having had a two week lockdown, still months away from winter). In cases B and C, where you cannot bring down the cases, there would be a lot of pressure to implement new and harder measures. So I just don't see in any scenario a kind of going "back to normal" ("March status", let's say).

Harsh reality is that Argentina in no way can afford to have another hard lockdown, neither economically nor socially. What he announced yesterday was another piece of planless, short-term action. The only thing that could halfway save it would be an accelaration of the vaccine programme (but that is obviously also very difficult if not impossible to achieve given the worldwide shortage of vaccines)
 

jblaze5779

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I said this 3 weeks ago, there will be some fashion of "shutdown" for the whole winter. 2 weeks at a time. Mark my words.
 

BAHibs

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I'm staying near Once and the situation is horrendous in terms of lack of social distancing and the % of people not wearing masks or wearing them in such a way they are completely useless.

The measures put in place might have had a chance of working if the population could have a little respect for each other but the "I'm doing what I want and F everyone else" mentality reigns supreme on the streets.
 

FrankPintor

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It seems they have a board with all possible things they can close and then simply pick some at random. There's no sense to it. Also, who really believes the problem will be solved in 15 days? Remember at the start of the lockdown when the government was stringing everybody along with "two more weeks" lockdowns that ended up lasting months? Welcome to 2021.

I am not even against the lockdown, I just see no logic in Alberto's decisions.
15 days is a typical quarantine period, maybe 21 would be better, but it's not totally illogical as a circuit-breaker. Maybe we're on the downslope of the tsunami, the queue outside CEMIC at 8am for testing has been half a block this week, as against 2 blocks last week. Possibly 15 days will be enough, otherwise I'd say the government should do whatever it takes. Just for comparison, infection rates in Chile are only starting to come down after 6 weeks of quarantine.

It's also obvious why schools had to close, different numbers have been thrown around, but several Infobae articles say: "between March 17 and April 12, 0.71% of the educational community was infected." That's 0.71% in 26 days, not counting relatives of the infected of course, because no contact tracing. The opposition is so interested in forcing the opening of schools, and yet so ignorant of basic mathematics, wanting almost 1% of teachers to be infected per month. More than 10% a year, having stalled the teachers' vaccination program for over 3 weeks now.

The national average per day between March 17 and April 12 was 12,800. At the national level, the 0.71% mentioned in those 26 days would equal 12,300 infected per day on average, basically the same, and counting relatives of the infected teachers and students there would be many more (2-3 more per infected teacher or student, they have families, remember). The schools are a focus of infection, and the 0.71% figure was simply "chamullo", an attempt to pull the wool over everyone's face.

What's become very clear is that federal health minister Carla Visotti is finding Gines Gonzalo Garcia's boots too big to fill.
 

Ceviche

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I personally know a few waitresses who have become unemployed, thanks to new restrictions. Their financial state is really sad.
 

sts7049

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Small changes can and do make a difference in the numbers, as we have seen time and again all over the world, but they don't happen overnight. Things will get worse before they get better (natural to expect since it can take 3-14 days to get sick after being infected)

The never-ending lockdown of 2020 didn't help, but with small changes and fairly good compliance with the protocols life went back to "normalish" all the while still having high but manageable levels of infection. There were always hospital beds available for those that needed them.

It is undeniable that recently more people started to disregard the minimal protocols that did exist and things started going crazy - as someone who went out a lot at night over the past months can attest to - crowded nightclubs, packed restaurants, big asados and rowdy house parties where no one wears masks can hardly be a healthy idea in a pandemic like this... whatever protocols they started off with quickly wore off over the past month or so. Add to the mix people who get a little drunk or fumado in these settings and there is simply no stopping them from spreading the love around.
Most of those I know who got COVID partook in something like this in the week or two prior to infection or got it from someone who did.

What does not help at all however is an infectadura-style president who makes drastic off the hip decisions not even based on science or coordinated with his own government and governors while lacking any meaningful economic consideration. Just makes an even bigger mess for someone else to clean up.
small changes will only matter if the weakest link in this system of protection gets better. which for me is what you refer to, people being responsible. the problem is, this new measure isn't going to change that now. people are done with this crap and the virus is too established. and the gov't needs to have a plan for what to do AFTER this time is up. they seem to be just sitting around whining about "well we are still waiting for others to send us vaccines they promised!" so without either of those these new measures will be useless.

if the govt really wants to do something meaningful, it should be doing everything in its power to get vaccines and vaccinate the population. but it's as if they are only capable of controlling its people (or attempting to) because it's the only way to portray any semblance of control.
 

antipodean

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I also have no clue what the logic of these measures could be
Alberto gave an interview today and said he reason to close schools was because he drove past one and saw a “conglomeration of parents waiting outside” and heard that “kids play games where they swap masks“. That’s how decisions get made in this country. Despite his very own minister of health, medical advisors, minister of education, UNICEF, even the IMF and more were telling him not to do it as there is no scientific evidence to support its suspension in Argentina at this time - in fact they were clear that the research that exists shows that the harm would outweigh any good it may achieve at this point in time, but he did it anyway.

Yet despite that, football is still permitted without restriction and they appointed convicted ex-Vice President Boudou as a teacher at UBA delivering classes from the comfort of home detention - showing they still care about the education that matters for future generations.

Like anything here, slime-ball politicians that lack a single clear objective can probably be blamed.
You want to be Superman and save todxs? Or you simply want to manage the quantity of cases so that todxs can get hospital care if and when they need it? It’s one or the other.

This article talks about what may be expected after these 2 weeks.
 

antipodean

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