This is what I don't get about such a low crawling peg. If prices rise in pesos at 1% a day, but you're only devaluing the peso by 2% a month, you're basically encouraging the brecha to grow for as long as the cepo exists, no?
There's no incentive to stay in pesos as you're losing 30% a month, and you can't legally buy dollars at the official exchange rate, because nobody can, so you're going to see the CCL/MEP/Blue climb as a hedge when people see rocketing inflation, which widens the brecha, which discourages exporting/settling payments in the MULC, defeating the purpose of the devaluation in the first place.
Also, won't it be more expensive to dollarize if inflation is high yet the peso isn't devalued?
Other countries don't have runs on foreign currency when they have high inflation because there is firstly no ambient distrust of their national currency, and secondly no restrictions on purchasing say USD/GBP/EUR/RMB.
If Milei/Caputo fear that pegging the devaluation to inflation will further exasterbruate inflation and create a feedback loop I get that, but wouldn't it make more sense to just subsidize inelastic goods like medicines or foodstuffs instead of playing make-believe with the macroeconomy?
The only scenario in which any of this makes sense to me is if they think they can do this for like 6 months then dollarize, but I really doubt that's the case. Is there something I'm missing here?