What does Kirchner winning the Primaries mean to you...

[John.St]

Will they fine the Argentino Congress too, I wonder?

 

[Philsword]

The poverty level of 21% comes from a recent report from Mercosur. Along with Uruguay at 21%, it is the lowest in the bloc. Check Mercosur's numbers from 2007 to verify the 40% number. The unemployment numbers come from a recent report from the 2nd quarter released by this government and widely reported in Nación and Clarín and other media outlets.

Mercosur numbers don't mean much as their source would be Indec as well. Things have improved since the depths of the crash back in 2001 and fewer people are certainly living in poverty than then. Most private estimates of poverty are about half again as much as the governments numbers, i.e. more like 30%. My guess is that the actual number of people in poverty is actually increasing over the last few years due to high inflation. My point whatever the real number is their economic model is not sustainable, when the end comes there may be more people in poverty than before the Kirchner's came along.

 

[elalancito]

Forget the numbers and look around! In BA, you see a thriving economy and very low unemployment. People are more animated than ever. Do you remember the days when they just rode busses and subtes without expression? There is more discretionary money being spent now than ever (or at least since the collapse), more American companies thriving (latest example is Starbucks when the first opened in May of 2008 in Alto Palermo). In general, the argument that spiraling inflation will overtake a thriving economy has merit but has been advanced throughout the K years. It has not happened yet and let's hope she takes some measures in her second term to prevent it. In the meanwhile, give her the benefit of the doubt. Things are working under her watch.

 

[John.St]

Forget the numbers and look around! In BA, you see a thriving economy and very low unemployment.

You also observe préstamo and 12 quotas both of which are driving a lot of this thriving economy.

In the meanwhile, give her the benefit of the doubt. Things are working under her watch.

The Kirchners haven't been nearly as good as their proponents claim and not nearly as bad as their opponents claim.

Lining their own coffers?
Absolutely, but in country no. 105 on the corruption perception index http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/results name 2 or 3 presidents during the last 50 years who haven't.

 

[John.St]

It seems a perfectly reasonable explanation to me. If someone is providing information they they should explain how they got the raw data and how it is structured.

How does INDEC get the raw data and how it is structured?

 

[Philsword]

Forget the numbers and look around! In BA, you see a thriving economy and very low unemployment. People are more animated than ever. Do you remember the days when they just rode busses and subtes without expression? There is more discretionary money being spent now than ever (or at least since the collapse), more American companies thriving (latest example is Starbucks when the first opened in May of 2008 in Alto Palermo). In general, the argument that spiraling inflation will overtake a thriving economy has merit but has been advanced throughout the K years. It has not happened yet and let's hope she takes some measures in her second term to prevent it. In the meanwhile, give her the benefit of the doubt. Things are working under her watch.

Well she's going to be re-elected so I hope she does well for Argentina's sake. If things do go south I hope that lessons are learned so that they will not be repeated again. Unfortunately I am not particularly optimistic either will happen.

 

[John.St]

The poverty level of 21% comes from a recent report from Mercosur.

Para no ser pobre hay que percibir más de $ 1.314

http://www.losandes.com.ar/notas/2011/7/16/para-pobre-percibir-1.314-581286.asp

One thousand three hundred fourteen pesos a month and you are above the poverty line - guid luck tu ye me bhoy, you'll need it.

 

[Philsword]

You also observe préstamo and 12 quotas both of which are driving a lot of this thriving economy.

The Kirschners haven't been nearly as good as their proponents claim and not nearly as bad as their opponents claim.

Lining their own coffers?
Absolutely, but in country no. 105 on the corruption perception index http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/results name 2 or 3 presidents during the last 50 years who haven't.

Basically you are saying they are not all that bad when compared to a lot of other as bad or worse people that came before them, I guess I could agree with this. Hopefully the country will have good leadership at some point and begin to realize its potential.

 

[John.St]

"A su vez, los sueldos de los empleados de panaderías recibirán una suba en sus sueldos del 35%."
http://www.losandes.com.ar/notas/2011/8/25/precio-aumentara-ante-fuerte-suba-harina-589303.asp

"El público espera una inflación del 25% en los siguientes doce meses, una expectativa que se repitió en agosto por sexto mes consecutivo, de acuerdo con la investigación del Centro de Investigación en Finanzas (CIF) de la Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT)."
http://www.losandes.com.ar/notas/2011/8/19/sexto-seguido-gente-espera-inflacion-anual-588173.asp

"Para el Congreso, la inflación de junio fue de 1,52%. La cifra surge del informe que los diputados opositores obtuvieron de ocho consultoras privadas para quienes la inflación interanual acumulada es del 23,6%. "
http://www.losandes.com.ar/notas/2011/7/12/para-congreso-inflacion-junio-152-580437.asp

"YPF subió 5% los precios y acumula 25% en un año"
http://www.losandes.com.ar/notas/2011/7/26/subio-precios-acumula-583178.asp

"En un mes creció 25% la demanda de dólares"
http://www.losandes.com.ar/notas/2011/8/6/crecio-demanda-dolares-585496.asp

"Cabe recordar que el índice dado por la Universidad [UNCuyo] correspondiente a abril fue de 1,7% de inflación sobre la canasta alimentaria (pondera alimentos y bebidas de un matrimonio con dos hijos), y de 1,6% para la denominada canasta básica parcial, que incluye gastos de higiene personal, limpieza del hogar, esparcimiento, servicios (sin alquileres, gastos en educación y salud) y transporte."
http://www.losandes.com.ar/notas/2011/6/27/uncuyo-deja-medir-indice-precios-supermercados-577171.asp

"El costo de la construcción creció un 23,3 % y ni el Indec lo puede ocultar"
"En los últimos doce meses, el costo de levantar un edificio de 14 pisos, sin incluir el valor del terreno, ni IVA, honorarios o gastos financieros, aumentó un 23,3 %. Durante el mismo período, el índice de precios al consumidor regulado por Moreno apenas subió 9,7 %."
http://www.losandes.com.ar/notas/20...ion-crecio-233-indec-puede-ocultar-575849.asp

"Diputados opositores dicen que la inflación anual llegó al 23,5%"
http://www.losandes.com.ar/notas/20...es-dicen-inflacion-anual-llego-235-574578.asp

"El costo de la canasta de productos de alimentación e higiene de marcas líderes que releva la Liga de Acción al Consumidor (Adelco) en supermercados e hiper subió en mayo 4,19 % frente a abril, y 35,28 % comparado con igual mes de 2010, informó ayer la entidad."
http://www.losandes.com.ar/notas/2011/6/1/alimentos-primera-marca-subieron-571752.asp

Not inflation, only "price distortions" over the entire range.

 

[Philsword]

How does INDEC get the raw data and how it is structured?

I believe they call the Casa Rosada and find out which way they want to spin the data politically and then produce stats that conform to the required spin.