What will the Dollar be worth End 2020.!

antipodean

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How long can it last the gap over 100 % between Dollar Official and Blue l


In the Argentine economy, the 5 times that the exchange rate gap exceeded 100 percent led to a further recession and in the end, a strong devaluation and an increase in the inflation rate
With this government who thinks it can wish away reality, as long as it can before it can’t. It is likely we will have some very strange months where there is astronomical inflation on some items (making them unaffordable for most Argentines) and shortages/ outages on others (as vendors don’t want to sell) but the government will persist in its rhetoric that these things don’t reflect the real argentina because the price of flour, oil, sugar remains stable. Enjoy as it will be a momentary taste of a Venezuelan-esque reality where wages can’t buy sh!t and only the privileged can enjoy “luxuries” (But unlike Venezuela, I don’t think it will be the lasting reality, it will correct itself for yet another round)
 

Ceviche

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(But unlike Venezuela, I don’t think it will be the lasting reality, it will correct itself for yet another round)
I was traveling often to Venezuela for business as late as 2018. And I still have strong contacts with Venezuelas who live there on present day. Its a 100% dollar economy now and everything is DAMN expensive, much more than any other Latin American country.
 

Renzi

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I'm a relative newcomer to this board, yet I still don't get the persistent moaning and doomsday hyperbole about the economy and the politics of Argentina that goes on here. Bad governments and currrency devaluation are Latin America 101, every country in the region deals with this on a regular basis and it's been a fact of life for centuries. Things get better, they get worse, get much worse, then get slightly better again. It's what you sign up for when you leave the First World.

No son gigantes, sino molinos de viento.
 

jlynch

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not just here, you will hear/read the same on the television on channels such as A24 and in the newspapers.
accepting things the way they are is also the rationale people use to keep voting in these bad governments.
 

antipodean

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I think here in Argentina the key difference is frequency and severity. Other countries with similarly developed and large economies seem to learn from their past mistakes, for a decade or few anyway. Brazil, Chile, Mexico have certainly managed to maintain relative “stability” for a period of time that Argentina cannot begin to imagine.

Example of FX change over the last 10 years of 1USD:
PEN - 2.5-> 3.6
BRL - 1.5 -> 5.6
COP - 1745 -> 3800
CLP - 456 -> 776
MXN - 11 -> 20
ARS (official) 3.8 -> 78 (or almost 200 unofficial...)

The moaning is usually from those who have something invested in the country and have something to actually loose, like Argentines, and not those living a detached expat bubble with foreign income and an easy exit strategy.
 

Alpinista

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I'm a relative newcomer to this board, yet I still don't get the persistent moaning and doomsday hyperbole about the economy and the politics of Argentina that goes on here. Bad governments and currrency devaluation are Latin America 101, every country in the region deals with this on a regular basis and it's been a fact of life for centuries. Things get better, they get worse, get much worse, then get slightly better again. It's what you sign up for when you leave the First World.

No son gigantes, sino molinos de viento.
I am not really sure whether your main point/critic of your post is that the crisis is not (or will not be) as bad as predicted or that you agree that it is (or will be) very bad indeed, but it is still within the expectations (part of the package).

From a pure expat point of view, i somehow even understand your position. Whereas the poverty rate is already above 50% and surely to raise further, inflation to come, you will ask yourself - living in Palermo or Recoleta - so what? Life is getting cheaper by the day, and insecurity is for now still on an acceptable level.

As Anti said, the point of view depends largely on how you are invested here. Probably also on your expectations for the country. I disagree with your statement “every country in the region deals with this on a regular basis and it's been a fact of life for centuries”. BsAs (or Argentina) is a place that for decades was amongst the richest on earth. Still in 1945/50, Argentina was around the tenth richest country (“fun” fact, Venezuela was number 4 if you look at the pbi per capita in 1950). For many decades hunger was not known as it was for example in europe. So we are not talking about normal economic cycles with decrease and growth, but a constant decline which even seems to accelerate over recent years. You make it sound like it is somehow a natural law : unavoidable fate that Argentina (or the region) is destined to live in misery.

Me personally: materially i do not depend on the local market here. I have a house here, but this is not my concern. However, family wise i am invested. Whereas i can move back anytime to Europe, most of my wider family obviously can’t. It saddens me enormously what is going on here at the moment. And i know at one point we will hit bottom (with a bit of a rebound). The question is when that will be and at what level.
 

Rich One

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I'm a relative newcomer to this board, yet I still don't get the persistent moaning and doomsday hyperbole about the economy and the politics of Argentina that goes on here. Bad governments and currrency devaluation are Latin America 101, every country in the region deals with this on a regular basis and it's been a fact of life for centuries. Things get better, they get worse, get much worse, then get slightly better again. It's what you sign up for when you leave the First World.

No son gigantes, sino molinos de viento.
It happens elsewhere..! Other Countries in Latam devalue... Every country does it . But not like Argentina. ..!!
Some experience a severe case of Whataboutism...!

 

another

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It happens elsewhere..! Other Countries in Latam devalue... Every country does it . But not like Argentina. ..!!
Some experience a severe case of Whataboutism...!

Colombia for example devaluates, but it fluctuates a lot up and down, as opposed to neurotic jumps of arg peso combined with the dirty flotation on it's way to reach the moon, and the inflation rates in Colombia are comparable to those of the first world country, the basics such as food, rent and transportation remain cheap. And nobody can say that Colombia didn't have its' share of problems to deal with. Yes, there are slums and poverty, but there is also real economy that functions - unlike argentina's perpetual trying to invent a wheel under the preposterous excuse of being different.
 

camberiu

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"Bad governments and currrency devaluation are Latin America 101, every country in the region deals with this on a regular basis and it's been a fact of life for centuries. "
Brazil has had a stable currency since 1995. Peru since 1993. That is an entire generation. Chile even longer than that. Uruguay too. Paraguay and Colombia's inflation have been in the single digits since 2000 (that is 20 years). High inflation and devaluations were the wide norm in Latin America back in the 80s and 90. That has changed significantly in many countries. Argentina today is NOT the norm, no matter how you try to spin it.
 
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