What Would Dollarization Mean for Expats?

[Jerry Nelson]

I’ll just leave this here and then show myself out.

The amount of nonsense and vitriol I’m expecting is past the roof.

In June, I asked what I thought was an innocent question: “What Would Dollarization Mean for Expats?”

I got many great responses, but I also got idiotic responses that don’t come close to answering the question.

Answers such as these:



Now that Javier Milei apparently won the primary yesterday, let me ask again.

What Would Dollarization Mean for Expats?

 

[lunar]

Javier Milei: "When I talk about burning the Central Bank, it's not a metaphor, I want to dynamite it. And this is literal. That is, to make it implode and leave all the rubble, so that only the memory and the harm it has caused us remain standing."

Javier Milei: «Quiero dinamitar el Banco Central, no es una metáfora» – El cafe diario

elcafediario.com

What Would Dollarization Mean for Expats?

 

[Jerry Nelson]

Javier Milei: "When I talk about burning the Central Bank, it's not a metaphor, I want to dynamite it. And this is literal. That is, to make it implode and leave all the rubble, so that only the memory and the harm it has caused us remain standing."

Javier Milei: «Quiero dinamitar el Banco Central, no es una metáfora» – El cafe diario

elcafediario.com

Milei is definitely worse than Trump--the Mango Mussolini.

 

[sts7049]

assuming this idea actually happens, strictly for expats it would probably make things more straightforward. no more wiring in money, parallel exchange rates, etc.

i am not convinced it will happen, at least not right away.

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

His government would fall long time before it happens.
He’d have to be helicoptered out of the casa rosada.

 

[Alfred_Arnold]

It could mean a lot of things depending on how it plays out in conjunction with other elements of his plan of action. If the regulations for commercial and personal transactions remain the same but rewritten to eliminate the word peso, not much would change.

Ideally, to Milei's sympathizers and with the repeal of tons of regulations Milei is promising, it could mean a jump start to the economy with easier international trade for both imports and exports, more stable/expected consumer prices, less banking restrictions regarding permissible amounts, increased foreign investments, etc. These seem to be good things for property values (to the expats who own properties) and would potentially end some of our chatter regarding (how do i do/find/backdoor x) and maybe open some doors for local investing.

Worst case could mean prolonged deflation and shortages, and a significant increase in crime due to increased desperation. And if part of the casta, a pretty hefty haircut on the kickbacks without the Cantillon effect and multiple exchange rates to wield to its favor. But probably some serious (and probably state-sponsored) civil unrest for a bit. Probably not great as an expat or most anyone else.

Boring it will not be....

Additional commentary: the media will now push the voto bronca/hartazgo, but most Milei sympathizers I've spoken with approach the subject more from a side of hope for the future with real quality of life improvements, not just straight temper-tantrum burn-it-down sentiments. Grabois would appear to represent that sentiment: end capitalism, expropriate properties, encourage violence, play the victim, and the rest of the angry face college kid NPC meme run-of-the-mill nonsense.

A cultural return to the ideas of Domingo Faustino Sarmiento and Juan Bautista Alberdi at the expense of those of General Juan Domingo Peron and Nestor Kirchner might not be a cause for alarm.

 

[Caribbean Cool]

To Alfred.... Worst case could mean prolonged deflation and shortages, and a significant increase in crime due to increased desperation. And if part of the casta, a pretty hefty haircut on the kickbacks without the Cantillon effect and multiple exchange rates to wield to its favor. But probably some serious (and probably state-sponsored) civil unrest for a bit. Probably not great as an expat or most anyone else.

could ...might....probably.....what in the world is this commentary about?

 

[Alfred_Arnold]

To Alfred.... Worst case could mean prolonged deflation and shortages, and a significant increase in crime due to increased desperation. And if part of the casta, a pretty hefty haircut on the kickbacks without the Cantillon effect and multiple exchange rates to wield to its favor. But probably some serious (and probably state-sponsored) civil unrest for a bit. Probably not great as an expat or most anyone else.

could ...might....probably.....what in the world is this commentary about?

Should i speak in absolutes?

 

[Ciro]

I experienced life during the Menem era of the Convertibility Law, where one US Dollar was equivalent to one Argentine Peso. Although Dollarization would not be quite the same, it would be near, and it would mean that the expat party would be coming to an end. Prices in Argentina would no longer be so drastically different from those of the more developed countries. Subsidies for services, gas. electricity, fuel, transportation, free health, free education, you name it, would come to an end and everything would become more expensive.

 

[Caribbean Cool]

And along with Ciro...I don't see much conversation about Ecuador and Panama being a 'dollar' bargain.