What Would Dollarization Mean for Expats?

[FrankPintor]

This is exactly how I see it. He wins the popular vote, but how the hell could he govern?

Kirchnerists would cause enough chaos, like they did with the 2017 pension reform. Trade unions, Congress etc.

Argentina would be paralised.

Same here, I don't understand what Argentinians want: they voted for Milei, and rejected every one of his candidates for provincial governor, in most cases by humiliating margins. Other than concluding that they're really mad about something, I don't see how any of this points to a way forward. It's just schizophrenic, like the government-dependent twits in the Antarctic who all voted for him - I think they actually deserve to be left there.

In the meantime Milei just spouts more wacky ideas - privatise Conicet, because state funded research never lead to anything? is the latest in the ongoing stream-of-consciousness that passes for a government program. All the illiberal garbage he stands for isn't going to be popular here, but it's not getting noticed with his megaphone blasting away unsettling business and the markets. He seems to be daring free-market economics to call his bluff, all it would take is a Blackrock or Soros to take an interest and tank his plans for good.

 

[Alby]

Same here, I don't understand what Argentinians want: they voted for Milei, and rejected every one of his candidates for provincial governor, in most cases by humiliating margins.

I guess the voters know how to distinguish between local and national issues. It's quite common in other countries with similar federal systems for people to vote one party in at state level and a different party at national level. Also, Millei's candidates would probably have done better had the provincial elections been delayed and held on the same day as the PASO. The governors knew what was coming even if the AMBA-based media and political parties didn't.

 

[FrankPintor]

I guess the voters know how to distinguish between local and national issues. It's quite common in other countries with similar federal systems for people to vote one party in at state level and a different party at national level. Also, Millei's candidates would probably have done better had the provincial elections been delayed and held on the same day as the PASO. The governors knew what was coming even if the AMBA-based media and political parties didn't.

Right, so his candidates might have reached the 15% or so reached by their colleagues on Sunday. That one's not going to fly.

It made Macri happy at least, he knows his governors and deputies are going to be needed by Milei if he gets to be elected.

The dynamics on display on Sunday were amusing... Larreta physically backgrounded on the JxC stage, Bullrich's lovestruck overture to Milei, unrequited, since he managed to mention his sister and his dogs, with nothing for Patty, but Macri did get a mention eventually, I imagine Milei figures he'll deal with the man in charge, and not with the hired help...

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Things that are unnaturally cheap in Argentina (gas, luz, productos locales) will increase substantially in price against the dollar. Short term bad but people’s salaries (hopefully) increase in dollar terms, and one great benefit long term will be devaluation of imported goods against people’s salaries

explain like I’m five please?

Unnaturally cheap? We have one biggest reserves of share gas in the world. What is unnatural about that?

 

[toongeorges]

The rich get richer and the poor get poorer in Argentina and the middle class has disappeared.

The poor getting poorer, the middle class getting poorer, but the rich getting richer? I thought in Argentina everyone was getting poorer, also the rich. The only exception being some politicians who somehow seem to have found a magic way to make money.

 

[Rich One]

Milei promised to wipe out most of the Ministerios except for eight , especially the Social Benefits Ministerio, that distributes the Planes. He was advised that such a measure would bring turmoil and rioting on the streets. He made my day , he said: he would put Persico from Movimiento Evita in Jail...

 

[toongeorges]

If wages will be lower and prices will increase, how will they help the working class citizen? How much would rent be for a citizen?

Wages in Argentina are now lower than in Uruguay and I expect wages in Argentina to stay lower than in Uruguay after a dollarization. I do not know if wages will be lower or higher than they are now though.

The housing market has been completely crippled by the current government, I have heard a real estate agent in my ex's family complain about all the problems with the new rental laws. No idea what rental prices will be for Argentines, but if rental laws do not change, there will not be enough houses for rent, except for short term rentals through sites as AirBnB. You can find decent single bed-room appartments for around 50 USD per night. If the rental law were fixed, I guess you would find decent single bed-room appartments for around 400-500 USD per month.

 

[toongeorges]

Exactly! That's the problem with Argentina. It rushes to make laws or policies without thinking them through. And it's always more difficult and takes forever to change things back. Milei is very pro-business and he is talking about some serious reforms that will be much better for Argentina. Some of the things he is saying like "blowing up Argentina Central Bank" will never happen. It would be impossible.

But the youth are frustrated and want change. Employment law reform excites me if they can really get away with changing things. It's what is needed as well as getting rid of many governmental programs.

The politicians "of the people" create these business-hostile policies, because "capitalism is the cause of whatever goes wrong in the economy" and the evil capitalists have to be punished.

¡Viva Perón! ¡Viva Perón!

Por ese gran argentino
que se supo conquistar
a la gran masa del pueblo
combatiendo al capital.

It is deeper than just some bad policies, it is part of Argentina's identity

 

[Alby]

Right, so his candidates might have reached the 15% or so reached by their colleagues on Sunday. That one's not going to fly.

It made Macri happy at least, he knows his governors and deputies are going to be needed by Milei if he gets to be elected.

The dynamics on display on Sunday were amusing... Larreta physically backgrounded on the JxC stage, Bullrich's lovestruck overture to Milei, unrequited, since he managed to mention his sister and his dogs, with nothing for Patty, but Macri did get a mention eventually, I imagine Milei figures he'll deal with the man in charge, and not with the hired help...

I'm just offering an explanation for why people vote for one party at a provincial election and a different one at a national election and why Milei's candidates for governor polled so low compared to his performance PASO performance. No will ever be able to put a number on how much higher they would've polled had the elections been simultaneous.

I always thought Larreta's candidature was preposterous. Apart from a few appearances with Alberto and Axel during the pandemic, he would have been as well known to the non-AMBA electorate as the mayors of say Cordoba or Rosario or Mendoza would be those living in AMBA. That's the problem when parties are CABA or AMBA-centric. They don't see these things until it's too late.

 

[antipodean]

This is exactly how I see it. He wins the popular vote, but how the hell could he govern?

Kirchnerists would cause enough chaos, like they did with the 2017 pension reform. Trade unions, Congress etc.

Argentina would be paralised.

I think this forgets that the "Kirchnerists" who would cause the caos in the streets (e.g. the rent-a-crowds) are the very people voting for Millei - the popular.
The militant K vote (Grabois) only got 5.87% of the PASO. In provincia BA many who voted Kiciloff for governor also voted Millei for president.

Trade Unions can have a go, but with the popular rightward swing any bullshit from the Unions disrupting people lives, I think it will only harden public opinion against them and encourage a Millei lead government to take an even harsher stance against them using said bullshit as propaganda ammunition against them (meaning it would essentially be self-destruction of the Unions and more specifically, their leaders who certainly do not want lights being shone into their financial affairs, should they loose the protection of the state...).

It is also worth remembering that if the PASO results repeat, Libertad Avanza will have a substantial amount of seats meaning Peronism will no longer have a quorum, and given the rightward popular sentiment, JxC would be likely to support many (even if not all...) of Millei's initiatives meaning they can still be passed. Plus this guy will probably do the same as the current president and push through decree after decree to get the changes he wants to see in motion.

The reality I see, is that the state's checks and balances will kick in to moderate the guy so that many of the more extreme measures he wants to take will be curbed but he will get enough support to push through many pivotal changes that redirect Argentina's path for the next decade or two.