Why Is Dollar Blue Trending Down?

[dennisr]

Funny:
"El secretario de Comercio está inquieto, porque asumió frente a Cristina toda la responsabilidad por el éxito de la medida. Si la amnistía no funciona, el dólar volverá a subir y tendrá un fuerte costo político ante la Presidenta."

http://www.clarin.com/opinion/Llamados-blanquear-buenas-malas_0_946105454.html

 

[Rich One]

Well you have your marching orders ... Monday to the bank to surrender your dollars for CEDIN's then sell them in the secondary market for $7,20 seems like a good deal?

 

[AmigoArtistico]

Funny:
"El secretario de Comercio está inquieto, porque asumió frente a Cristina toda la responsabilidad por el éxito de la medida. Si la amnistía no funciona, el dólar volverá a subir y tendrá un fuerte costo político ante la Presidenta."

http://www.clarin.co..._946105454.html

That's a great article (although sad for Argentina to see the absolute ineptitude of these people).

Here's another bit from the article that gives some insight into the mind of Guillermo Moreno, Secretary of Commerce. Just unbelievable:

Pero su preocupación es el precio del dólar y volvió sobre la idea de los $ 6,50. Así lo dijo: “Vuelvo a repetirlo, quiero que se reúnan, se pongan de acuerdo y fijen un dólar a $ 6,50”. Moreno explicó por qué insiste con ese valor y expuso sus rudimentarios argumentos económicos: “El dólar es negro porque no tiene IVA”. Y agregó: “Por eso, el precio real del dólar negro es el valor oficial más el IVA, lo cual da $ 6,50”.

Translated:

But his [Moreno's] worry is the price of the dollar, and he returned to the idea of having the dollar at $6.50 [pesos]. He said: "I'll repeat again: I want you to meet, to agree, and to fix the price of the dollar at $6.50." Moreno explained why he insists on this value, and exposed his rudimentary economic arguments: "The dollar blue is "black market" because it doesn't have IVA added." And he added: "Because of that, the real price of the dollar blue is the value of the official dollar plus IVA, which gives $6.50."

It's just astounding that someone who thinks like that could be the commerce secretary of the country.

Here's one last bit:

Hubo trifulcas y amenazas. Moreno terminó todas las reuniones con una misma pregunta: “¿Cómo yo fijo el precio de los fideos y vos no podés fijar el precio del dólar?

Translation:

There were fights and threats [in the meetings with the bankers]. Moreno ended all the meetings with the same question: "How is it that I can fix the price of pasta, but you can't fix the price of the dollar?"

 

[Rich One]

That's a great article (although sad for Argentina to see the absolute ineptitude of these people).

Here's another bit from the article that gives some insight into the mind of Guillermo Moreno, Secretary of Commerce. Just unbelievable:

Pero su preocupación es el precio del dólar y volvió sobre la idea de los $ 6,50. Así lo dijo: “Vuelvo a repetirlo, quiero que se reúnan, se pongan de acuerdo y fijen un dólar a $ 6,50”. Moreno explicó por qué insiste con ese valor y expuso sus rudimentarios argumentos económicos: “El dólar es negro porque no tiene IVA”. Y agregó: “Por eso, el precio real del dólar negro es el valor oficial más el IVA, lo cual da $ 6,50”.

Translated:

But his [Moreno's] worry is the price of the dollar, and he returned to the idea of having the dollar at $6.50 [pesos]. He said: "I'll repeat again: I want you to meet, to agree, and to fix the price of the dollar at $6.50." Moreno explained why he insists on this value, and exposed his rudimentary economic arguments: "The dollar blue is "black market" because it doesn't have IVA added." And he added: "Because of that, the real price of the dollar blue is the value of the official dollar plus IVA, which gives $6.50."

It's just astounding that someone who thinks like that could be the commerce secretary of the country.

Here's one last bit:

Hubo trifulcas y amenazas. Moreno terminó todas las reuniones con una misma pregunta: “¿Cómo yo fijo el precio de los fideos y vos no podés fijar el precio del dólar?

Translation:

There were fights and threats [in the meetings with the bankers]. Moreno ended all the meetings with the same question: "How is it that I can fix the price of pasta, but you can't fix the price of the dollar?"

Very funny if Argentinos are draining the reserves with a dollar turista at $6,40... via CC
Give them Blue dollars at $6,50 without leaving tracks for the AFIP, and see what happens.

 

[GS_Dirtboy]

That's a great article (although sad for Argentina to see the absolute ineptitude of these people).

"The dollar blue is "black market" because it doesn't have IVA added." And he added: "Because of that, the real price of the dollar blue is the value of the official dollar plus IVA, which gives $6.50." (Moreno)

It's just astounding that someone who thinks like that could be the commerce secretary of the country.

"How is it that I can fix the price of pasta, but you can't fix the price of the dollar?"

He has a BA in Econ from UADE.

If I would have offered this reasoning in my Economics' classes (undergrad or grad) I would have been publicly ridiculed. Don't worry, the K's will be along in a moment to explain the hidden genius here that the rest of us are missing.

 

[splaying]

Perhaps the question should be -- WHY IS THE US DOLLAR TRENDING UP? Answer that one then you might come to your own conclusions on the local currency. or perhaps on gold too .. Like to hear your thoughts. walter

 

[TrevorCito]

Good point splaying, treasury bond yields are going up, gold is devaluing.. usd based asset classes excluding cash are following suit... There is a significant rotation underway, temporarily into cash.

The question I have is where will all the cash go? Where is the yield?

Stronger dollar means a relatively weaker peso so the how long can the government artificially hold the current peso value? Either way, I see a strong spike up in the dollar blue in the short term.

 

[germano]

Looks like the Cedin is not having any effect on the dolar blue so far: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1597142-cotizacion-dolar-hoy-cedin-blanqueo-de-capitales

Has anybody in BsAs exchanged dollars, today? Are they open? Rates?

 

[pablosailor]

I exchanged dollars today(about noon). Everything seemed normal. I got 7.95 pesos per dollar.

 

[argsteve]

8.2 and climbing...