Why Is Dollar Blue Trending Down?

[French jurist]

The rate is not really representative, I sold USDs yesterday a bit higher than the "official-unofficial" Blue rate.

You can check the "Dolar Blue" page on FB (many offers to buy/sell). A bit risky though.

 

[Inferno.]

Is there anyone out there patient enough to explain why the value of dollar blue is trending down? I am an economic simpleton and I am struggling to understand how the system works!

There are two types of dollars in argentina (more if you want actually, but the 2 most important). The first one is the blue dollar that you know and the second is one that can be bought with bonds and stocks. This can be divided in two depending on the process used, CCL (contado con liqui, when a broker from the US is used) or Paridad (when you only use brokers in argentina). In few words, you buy a bond/stock in pesos and you sell it here or in the US in USD. These two can be bought legally if you have that money declared.

The government is using the Anses (agency for social security, retirement and other benefits) to sell the bonds and stocks that they have in their porftolio (that are used to do CCL/Paridad for other people) to lower it's price. This is causing a reaction in the market, generating the blue dollar to trade at a lower level cause this other one is cheaper. As you may imagine, this is a temporal solution because they have a limited amount of bonds/stocks to sell. They are just selling, selling and selling to keep the price at the current level.

In my opinion they are just stalling until elections. They are basically selling what they have to keep the price from touching the high values that we were seeing. Unless we discover gold, diamonds or oil.. the price will increase again in the future. But again, this is just my opinion.

Chris

 

[Alicia karr]

The real rate isn't to be found. Moreno is insisting on stating a lower than real rate or he'll close the cuevas down. So they are either not doing business or now quoting a "deep blue" rate. You can get more than the "blue" because its no longer an accurate rate. The deep blue is. Until Moreno gets a hold of that one too!

 

[French jurist]

The real rate isn't to be found. Moreno is insisting on stating a lower than real rate or he'll close the cuevas down. So they are either not doing business or now quoting a "deep blue" rate. You can get more than the "blue" because its no longer an accurate rate. The deep blue is. Until Moreno gets a hold of that one too!

Indeed, as of today, it's possible to get, more or less easily, 8.30:1 (when selling dollars)

 

[rrptownley]

I got pesos from Azimo today at 12.50 pesos for each pound. I think the official is at 7.1.

 

[robwerwe]

I got pesos from Azimo today at 12.50 pesos for each pound. I think the official is at 7.1.

12.5 thats good!

The Official is 8.3

 

[WorkingClassHero]

There are two types of dollars in argentina (more if you want actually, but the 2 most important). The first one is the blue dollar that you know and the second is one that can be bought with bonds and stocks. This can be divided in two depending on the process used, CCL (contado con liqui, when a broker from the US is used) or Paridad (when you only use brokers in argentina). In few words, you buy a bond/stock in pesos and you sell it here or in the US in USD. These two can be bought legally if you have that money declared.

The government is using the Anses (agency for social security, retirement and other benefits) to sell the bonds and stocks that they have in their porftolio (that are used to do CCL/Paridad for other people) to lower it's price. This is causing a reaction in the market, generating the blue dollar to trade at a lower level cause this other one is cheaper. As you may imagine, this is a temporal solution because they have a limited amount of bonds/stocks to sell. They are just selling, selling and selling to keep the price at the current level.

In my opinion they are just stalling until elections. They are basically selling what they have to keep the price from touching the high values that we were seeing. Unless we discover gold, diamonds or oil.. the price will increase again in the future. But again, this is just my opinion.

Chris

I second that. The government is also launching the Cedin (an alternative currency to be used on the real estate market) and they want to trade it at a ratio peso/dolar 7/1. Their goal is by the end of the year to have 6-7-8, dollar white-Cedin-Dollar blue.
This is highly improbable because the blue is dependent on the equilibrium between the USD reserves of the government and the printing of new pesos. The reserves are going quick because the government is "selling" to keep the pressure on the blue and at the same time has payments in USD to support the soy production. Also they don't have any intentions to stop printing money (which is tha main cause for the high inflation)

So unless they find a container full of USD (about 5 billion) in the backyard of Casa Rosada, the dollar blue isn't going anywhere but up.
With the recent crack down on the dollar trips to Uruguay, there will be a higher demand on the blue/black market and when you add that aginaldo season is aground the corner, I wouldn't be surprised if the blue hits 12 and above in the next couple of months.

 

[GS_Dirtboy]

Moreno has nothing on me. Two can play that game. I've found a bunch of money in my closet. Have set the starting price at 13:1. PM me if you want to do some business.

 

[nikad]

Indeed, as of today, it's possible to get, more or less easily, 8.30:1 (when selling dollars)

official dollar 5.34$, "official" or "Moreno" blue 8.00$, " deep blue " or " blue del blue" 8.5$

 

[Rich One]

If you could buy a $100 dollar bill for $800 pesos , how much would you pay for a $100 dollar CEDIN?

Some where above $5.35....??