Why Is Dollar Blue Trending Down?

[cbonanni]

If any of the international credit rating agencies had to put a grade on the creditworthiness of cedin bonds , I would imagine they would have to create a new lowest ratting. Like --------DDDDDD.

Would any fiscal advisor recommend buying Cedin's ? Probably not.

Would they hold there par value ? No.

I have some very successful friends and relatives here. They all laugh at the idea of buying cedins. There money is fine in Mami , BVI's, Cayman , Switzerland , and that funny country between Germany and Belgium the I cannot spell.

 

[trennod]

Completely agree. Bajo is a good lawyer and basically is breaking new ground by studying the constitution and the laws on the books and fighting his way through the legal system to make sure that his clients get their due as the laws were written rather than what the judges decide they want to allow (or not allow).

After having lived through presidential eras where the country was sold out to the benefit of a few, it appears he holds some grudges and prefers the current administration to others that he has lived through. Where as many on this board look at what is and question why more isn't demanded by the public, I would venture that Bajo looks at what we have and thinks "I've seen worse."

Like most on this board, I haven't been following Argentine politics for 30+ years. And although many don't agree with Bajo's takes on things, this thread has gone well over the edge of decency. Personal attacks don't show that a person is right and the other person is wrong. If his comments piss you off too much to stand, just go ahead and change your settings so that his responses are blocked. He's not getting paid to represent the K government. He's obviously not convincing anyone on here to change their views either, so why the hostility? It's not like "Your team" is losing members to "his team". I think that people need to accept that he's not going to change his opinion. That doesn't reflect poorly on anyone's powers of persuasion, it's just the way it is.

So let's keep this discussion focused on what's happening regarding the "dolar blue" and try to refrain from attack fellow posters.

Napolean, I would argue this isnt just about Bajos political views but his approach in expressing these views (and I am not talking about language here, his english has never been an issue). Despite outwardly claiming he does not attack posters, in the last month or so he has become increasingly aggressive. You only have to trawl through a few threads to see it.

Re your first para, I understand over in the citizenship thread Bajo is doing some fantastic things for those it interests but this is an excellent means of him advertising his business as well. His contributions to the site are matched by what he gains.

I will only speak for myself here, but I am more than happy to hear the opinion of a pro-K informed and considerate supporter. But a lot of his posts just reek of the comentarios you see on La Nacion, Infobae etc.

Anyhoo, I will leave it there for now.

 

[Inferno.]

There are two types of dollars in argentina (more if you want actually, but the 2 most important). The first one is the blue dollar that you know and the second is one that can be bought with bonds and stocks. This can be divided in two depending on the process used, CCL (contado con liqui, when a broker from the US is used) or Paridad (when you only use brokers in argentina). In few words, you buy a bond/stock in pesos and you sell it here or in the US in USD. These two can be bought legally if you have that money declared.

The government is using the Anses (agency for social security, retirement and other benefits) to sell the bonds and stocks that they have in their porftolio (that are used to do CCL/Paridad for other people) to lower it's price. This is causing a reaction in the market, generating the blue dollar to trade at a lower level cause this other one is cheaper. As you may imagine, this is a temporal solution because they have a limited amount of bonds/stocks to sell. They are just selling, selling and selling to keep the price at the current level.

In my opinion they are just stalling until elections. They are basically selling what they have to keep the price from touching the high values that we were seeing. Unless we discover gold, diamonds or oil.. the price will increase again in the future. But again, this is just my opinion.

Chris

I'm quoting myself to put some evidence to support my theory:

Merval (Stock Exchange Index Bs As)

Blue Dolar

As we can see, both graphics are pretty similar. There was a spike in both the merval and the blue rate on around may 8, falling to the current values. In the case of the stock market.. the fall accounts for more than 23%.

Can anybody here imagine what would happen if the stock market in US fell for this amount in only 2 months? Did anyone see any sort of explanation from the argentina's government trying to explain this situation? or even someone speaking about this like it is an important and unexpected thing?

 

[dennisr]

Think the the powers are anticipating a ruling from New York: Vulture Funds. Sure AR will ignore the ruling and the hits will just keep coming. Lot on the table in the next month or so.

 

[Travelbug0601]

I think that the posts in this thread are far too emotional and that the attacks on BajoCero are a little over the top and unwarranted considering his contributions to the site. The guy is an actual licensed lawyer who has certainly developed a successful practice in his particular specialty. That being said, he is not an economist and his theories and arguments (like those of the current Argentine government) are failing and are doomed to absolute failure in the immediate future. As per the topic of this thread, the Blue Dollar is trending down because ANSES is flooding the market with dollar denominated bonds which increases CCL liquidity and availability (essentially the government is plundering the treasury of the social security agency as a short term stop-gap measure to keep the black market USD at levels seen as "reasonable" in an effort to win the elections in October). There is nothing more to this than that. As soon as ANSES ceases to intervene in the CCL market (almost guaranteed after the elections) the black market and CCL USD will rise into the stratosphere again. I predict that CEDIN will have moderate success (as long as the actual USD cash can be obtained during the closing of real estate deals) in giving some life to the real estate/construction industries but that the 3 year 4% USD bond intended to fund YPF and other infrastructure will be a complete failure.

Agreed! Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Thanks Bajo Cero for your contributions.

 

[robwerwe]

Agreed! Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Thanks Bajo Cero for your contributions.

 

[syngirl]

That would be if the government had good intentions but I think a higher scheme is being plotted with the CEDIN. As someone mentioned they can't print US dollars but they can print CEDINs. Even if the CEDIN has any success, I predict it will be traded undervalue.

All of this talk of CEDINs and whether or not they will be used, how, is there a bigger plot going on... for some reason it reminds me of "tickets" in the years after the crisis (for those of you who weren't here, when part of your salary was paid in pieces of paper that were worth different values and you could use them in the major supermarkets for example to purchase your groceries). My husband's salary receipt even to this day has a division of his pay that is "tickets" (even though he receives all cash, it's like they've kept the percentage there just in case they ever go back to the system....). Maybe they hope to expand the use of the CEDIN -- try to get people to dig all the dollars they have in their walls out and turn them over to the govt so they can pay for cars, airplane tickets, what have you.....

 

[syngirl]

There money is fine in Mami , BVI's, Cayman , Switzerland , and that funny country between Germany and Belgium the I cannot spell.

You mean Lickmyspine. (Liechtenstein)

 

[GS_Dirtboy]

I'll speak for myself. I'm pretty sure I've never attacked Bajo_Cero personally. A personal attack would be, "You're ugly" or "You're an idiot" etc etc. If I did then I apologize to Bajo. I've gone after his duplicity and lack of integrity in his posts vis-a-vis his condemnation of other members.

At the same time I know as an uninterested observer these posts from other members can be annoying. I apologize and I'll dial it back.

 

[nikad]

I don´t have anything against Bajo_Cero or his political beliefs, we should not make this personal, it is all about different opinions and we are all entitled to have one. That being said, Bajo: you never answered about the external debt, etc