Will The Cepo Be Lifted In Few Months?

[nikad]

With all due respect, you need to learn a little bit more about the monetary market in Argentina. Blue dollar is only for poor desperate people who wants to buy a few bucks at the end of the month, people in white with job contracts can buy certain amount a month legally at official rate and if you take it out at the same time that you bought them you get them at around 10$.

What you need to focus is in contado con liqui (where you get bonds, sell them in foreign market and transfer the €$ wherever you want) , that is the operation that the big companies and people with millions actually use to get the money out of the country and it is at 11,98$.

I personally think that the analisys from Navarro is highly accurate.

Exactly, it is the current government who is helping people speculate, they buy official and they sell blue in the first half of the month. Everybody knows that. They are basically building a time bomb for the next administration by artificially manipulating prices, etc. Wait and see. The rats do not want to face the cost of drastic measures.

 

[nikad]

Vaca muerta does not have nothing to do with it. Holdouts is about 20 billions, do your math. Once the governament strikes the deal can go to the markets to finance that debt. remember Repsol deal, in 1 day all the bonds where gone and they are doing very well. Do you know why is that?...

With a not so great credit history,,,,, what kind of interest rates do you think they will get? Who will pay for all of these bad deals in the future?Not my children, they will hopefully be somewhere else. But what about the rest?

 

[sesamosinsal]

Now that it seems QE actually has come to an end...

Muahahaha. Just like QE1, QE2, QE3...

They'll also raise interest rates.

Muahahahahahaha.

I think Vanoli could go work for the Fed once his work is done at the BCRA, i.e. the peso devalues 50% overnight.

 

[Crema Americana]

I'll believe it when I see it.

Is there a way they can sort of ease into a free-er market? I think suddenly pulling the cepo would be a bad idea.... but if they can gradually get the dolar oficial closer to the blue, and little by little allow more people access, maybe they can avoid a run. The trick is to not cause a panic or a Black Friday type rush.

 

[Pensador]

What amazes me is that we are even having such a conversation. Not the conversation itself but the fact that there is Cepo and that government that put it place is still in power. What is the problem K clan why can't I have the financial tools my choice to conduct my business and life? Should that not be my human right? Oh wait, I am sorry I forgot only the K gets the real money the rest of us just need to shut up or just go away.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Route_of_the_K-Money

In my estimation lifting the cepo will have an effect on how much can be funneled into the K route which I think makes lifting the Cepo a no go.

http://100r.org/corruption-allstars/

Keep drinking the Koolaid it is after all the best medicine to take sting out of reality.

 

[camberiu]

Who will pay for all of these bad deals in the future?Not my children, they will hopefully be somewhere else. But what about the rest?

Sorry to break it to you, but as of right now, practically the whole world has gone "full Argentina". Wherever you go, your kids will be stuck with a HUGE bill.

 

[ghost]

Vaca muerta does not have nothing to do with it. Holdouts is about 20 billions, do your math. Once the governament strikes the deal can go to the markets to finance that debt. remember Repsol deal, in 1 day all the bonds where gone and they are doing very well. Do you know why is that?...

20 billion in play, hummmmm? The only amount that is truly in play are hedge funds. Do the math, wizard.

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

I'll believe it when I see it.

Is there a way they can sort of ease into a free-er market? I think suddenly pulling the cepo would be a bad idea.... but if they can gradually get the dolar oficial closer to the blue, and little by little allow more people access, maybe they can avoid a run. The trick is to not cause a panic or a Black Friday type rush.

That is, or at least was, little Axel's plan. Gradual and controlled devaluation alongside measures aimed at plugging the bigger leak (contado con liqui) to lower the blue. Not the worst concept, but extremely difficult to control all the moving pieces to execute it successfully.

I'd guess that he would be ok for the official dollar to creep towards 10 with the target of getting the blue down to 10 or 11. Unfortunately it's whack a mole down on Florida, the blue refuses to wilt so easily.

 

[Rich One]

Navarro has little credibility he represents the Officialism at C5N owned by a Pro K businessman. Pay no attention , he said, buying Blue Dollars a $6 was ceazy.... hhahahahah

http://www.clarin.com/politica/empresario-compro-canal-C5N-Radio_0_689931043.html
..

 

[ghost]

That is, or at least was, little Axel's plan. Gradual and controlled devaluation alongside measures aimed at plugging the bigger leak (contado con liqui) to lower the blue. Not the worst concept, but extremely difficult to control all the moving pieces to execute it successfully.

I'd guess that he would be ok for the official dollar to creep towards 10 with the target of getting the blue down to 10 or 11. Unfortunately it's whack a mole down on Florida, the blue refuses to wilt so easily.

Any time politicians anywhere play with economics...it's big trouble!