Will The Next Govt. Be Less Authoritarian?

[sergio]

Many people argue that anything will be better than the present regime but WILL the next government ease up on the currency controls, will the AFJP have its wings clipped, will people be given back some of the freedoms they have lost under the Kirchners - or will it be status quo with maybe a few crumbs thrown here and there.

 

[lucha54]

Regimes might change but laws don't change as quickly.... just IMHO

 

[sesamosinsal]

Many people argue that anything will be better than the present regime but WILL the next government ease up on the currency controls, will the AFJP have its wings clipped, will people be given back some of the freedoms they have lost under the Kirchners - or will it be status quo with maybe a few crumbs thrown here and there.

The government is authoritarian because of currency controls and the privatization of pensions?

The next government will not ease up on currency controls. Every country in the region is in the same boat as Argentina, i.e. bleeding dollars. The only major difference is that most countries have access to credit. Still, debt buys you time, and global demand is stagnant in a world that's dollar dependent. QE3 is "over" -- that is until they decide that it's back. So, unless the next government really hits it off with Putin and decides to team up with him to bring down the dollar and abandon a global economic model that is so heavily dependent upon the U.S. economy (no easy task), absolutely nothing changes with the dollar after CFK.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

The next government will not ease up on currency controls. Every country in the region is in the same boat as Argentina, i.e. bleeding dollars.

Actually, the only countries in that boat are the ineptly governed Argentina and Venezuela.

 

[Chet]

Governments never go backwards in terms of limiting their own actions, it is in the nature of the beast to grow and consume more and more. Some may do it faster or slower is all.

 

[Rich One]

The government is authoritarian because of currency controls and the privatization of pensions?

The next government will not ease up on currency controls. Every country in the region is in the same boat as Argentina, i.e. bleeding dollars. The only major difference is that most countries have access to credit. Still, debt buys you time, and global demand is stagnant in a world that's dollar dependent. QE3 is "over" -- that is until they decide that it's back. So, unless the next government really hits it off with Putin and decides to team up with him to bring down the dollar and abandon a global economic model that is so heavily dependent upon the U.S. economy (no easy task), absolutely nothing changes with the dollar after CFK.

Some countries in LATAM are Flooded with dollars like Uruguay and Chile, in the SAME boat as ARGENTINA ???... Bleeding maybe are the Bolivarianos...Investment Brings in dollars not only issuing Debt bonds...??

Putin what a joke the Ruble has lost 25 % of its value this year.... B)

 

[sesamosinsal]

Actually, the only countries in that boat are the ineptly governed Argentina and Venezuela.

1) Current accounts in the region are overwhelmingly negative.
2) Trade balances in the region are mostly negative. If they're not negative, they're no where near the levels of 2008, and trending toward deficits.
3) External debt is on the increase. In some countries, such as Brazil and Uruguay, it has nearly doubled in the past couple of years.

So, the dollars "flooding" LATAM are mostly in the form of debt. If the vulture funds hadn't got in the way, Argentina would have joined the party already by now.

A country cannot sustain itself taking on loads of debt year-after-year without growth. Ask Portugal, Spain, and some other European countries how that worked for them. They're the most recent examples. Of course, the country you're in is also a good one.

 

[Rich One]

1) Current accounts in the region are overwhelmingly negative.
2) Trade balances in the region are mostly negative. If they're not negative, they're no where near the levels of 2008, and trending toward deficits.
3) External debt is on the increase. In some countries, such as Brazil and Uruguay, it has nearly doubled in the past couple of years.

So, the dollars "flooding" LATAM are mostly in the form of debt. If the vulture funds hadn't got in the way, Argentina would have joined the party already by now.

A country cannot sustain itself taking on loads of debt year-after-year without growth. Ask Portugal, Spain, and some other European countries how that worked for them. They're the most recent examples. Of course, the country you're in is also a good one.

No mention of Foreign Investment ?? the other side of the equation, Please expand your Comments ...!Your statements are all in a way true there is a general frenazo of the economies Chile will grow 1,5% instead of the 4.5 % forecast ed in the budget. Brazil also will grow less in 2015.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

1) Current accounts in the region are overwhelmingly negative.
2) Trade balances in the region are mostly negative. If they're not negative, they're no where near the levels of 2008, and trending toward deficits.
3) External debt is on the increase. In some countries, such as Brazil and Uruguay, it has nearly doubled in the past couple of years.

So, the dollars "flooding" LATAM are mostly in the form of debt. If the vulture funds hadn't got in the way, Argentina would have joined the party already by now.

A country cannot sustain itself taking on loads of debt year-after-year without growth. Ask Portugal, Spain, and some other European countries how that worked for them. They're the most recent examples. Of course, the country you're in is also a good one.

Ask Chile, which is still growing strongly if slightly more slowly, and where people needn't seek permission from the taxman to travel abroad. As for the country I'm in, it's ludicrous to have this patchwork of ten or so exchange rates (thank you, Ms. CFK and Mr. Kicillof).

 

[Matiasba]

I dont think the next government will sibsidize the capital flight, or finance the argentine fascination with the dollar. Ask for money outside to finance the massive purchase of dollars from argentines to have a huge loss? that is economic suicide, thats why me (and some analysts I hear) think that it simply wont happen. Unless they want to have another 2001, or another model (like 1989-2001) of taking debt compulsively. Macri is in that direction.