Will The Next Govt. Be Less Authoritarian?

[ajoknoblauch]

I dont think the next government will sibsidize the capital flight, or finance the argentine fascination with the dollar. Ask for money outside to finance the massive purchase of dollars from argentines to have a huge loss? that is economic suicide, thats why me (and some analysts I hear) think that it simply wont happen. Unless they want to have another 2001, or another model (like 1989-2001) of taking debt compulsively. Macri is in that direction.

Eliminating or reducing capital controls would encourage investment, which is what Argentina really needs. The current system, though, at least guarantees that everybody shares the pain (except for those in the executive branch of government).

 

[Gringoboy]

Two of my wife's customers (she's an accountant) are closing their factories because of this regime's currency controls and import/export policies.
Another customer which is a major player in the currency change market is so tightly squeezed by BCRA that it's a miracle they still exist.
I think it's a little misleading to say that other Latam countries are in the same boat as Argentina, particularly when you take into account the much lower inflation rates of those other countries and I'm not just referring to the countries quoted by Lanata.
Basket case is the closest one can get to describing the mess Argentina finds itself in as a result of ineptitude and confrontation practised by these people.
Confrontation and market manipulation does not make for a harmonious market place.

 

[sesamosinsal]

No mention of Foreign Investment ?? the other side of the equation, Please expand your Comments ...!Your statements are all in a way true there is a general frenazo of the economies Chile will grow 1,5% instead of the 4.5 % forecast ed in the budget. Brazil also will grow less in 2015.

What about foreign direct investment? It's only the other side of the equation if we're talking about the current account and outgoing FDI. But as I've mentioned, FDI or no FDI, Latin America continues to import more than it produces, and this exacerbates capital flow outside of the region. Argentina, for better or worse, is the only country in Latin America that is not running a trade deficit, and hasn't since the crisis in 2001/2002.

 

[sesamosinsal]

I think it's a little misleading to say that other Latam countries are in the same boat as Argentina, particularly when you take into account the much lower inflation rates of those other countries and I'm not just referring to the countries quoted by Lanata.

It isn't misleading. The only difference is that the rest of Latin America has access to credit. Other than that, emerging markets are in the same situation when it comes to growth.

In the last year, the USDUYU has devalued 17 percent, the USDBRL 15 percent, and the USDCPL 15 percent. Just to name a few. Clearly, Argentina is worse off - why? Because it has no USD to defend its exchange rate.

And USD shortages are a major cause of inflation.

 

[Rich One]

Please explain what is Outgoing FDI...??? Your figures come from INDEC?

 

[Crema Americana]

Has Argentina ever had a non-authoritative government? I mean, they've had different types.... but no one is going to come in and take power away from the presidency or instill better checks and balances.

The next administration may be more corporation friendly -- allowing imports, giving tax breaks, selling government assets for pennies -- but that doesn't necessarily mean it will be a positive change.

Getting rid of the dollar exchange controls will be very difficult - do you allow free trade of dollars (and the peso collapse that is sure to follow along with a possible run on the banks) or do you continue with controls while doing what to give people confidence in the peso? Create a new currency? Peg the peso to the dollar again? The situation doesn't look great.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

Has Argentina ever had a non-authoritative government? I mean, they've had different types.... but no one is going to come in and take power away from the presidency or instill better checks and balances.

The next administration may be more corporation friendly -- allowing imports, giving tax breaks, selling government assets for pennies -- but that doesn't necessarily mean it will be a positive change.

Getting rid of the dollar exchange controls will be very difficult - do you allow free trade of dollars (and the peso collapse that is sure to follow along with a possible run on the banks) or do you continue with controls while doing what to give people confidence in the peso? Create a new currency? Peg the peso to the dollar again? The situation doesn't look great.

Argentina's had many authoritarian governments, but never an authoritative one.

 

[sesamosinsal]

Outgoing FDI is money that is invested abroad, and it is recorded in the current account. Some countries, like Norway and Luxembourg, invest a significant amount of sovereign wealth into other countries, e.g. bonds. This can create deficits in the current account, which are only temporary as eventually those funds will be returned.

The trade balance figures do come from INDEC, but it would be foolhardy to distort them as all countries report exports and imports by country as well. So, unless INDEC is in cahoots with every country's statistics bureau, the figures can be checked, and thus are high likely to be accurate.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Can anybody explain which freedom is lost? And why this governmet "is" authoritRian?

 

[Ceviche]

Can anybody explain which freedom is lost? And why this governmet "is" authoritRian?

I feel more free here than I have ever felt anywhere else in the whole world.