Will The Next Govt. Be Less Authoritarian?

40% is the lowest in 60 years? You might be able to say the Nestor Kirchner Years, maybe even CFK's early years, but not the K Years.

Fascination, in English, is not probably the right word to use. Fascination usually denotes a fixation, something that is hard to move attention away from. In an over-used sense it could mean something less, but cats have a fascination with a ball of string, people can be fascinated by something that is happening in front of them, etc.

People want to have an immediate savings vehicle, even if the savings term is measured in weeks rather than months or a year or two (or more, obviously). One savings vehicle here is to buy property, or "bricks", which holds money better than pesos over any kind of long term measurement. But it takes a lot of money to buy decent property, which is why it's worth something. The lower the value of your currency, the longer it takes to save.

Rather than saving for years to have enough pesos to buy property (which can be a significantly moving target with inflation), they want something that is more easily convertible in the short term to house their savings. It's so obvious that anyone, from the poorest to at least the lower middle class, would want something they can use to keep the amount of time required to invest in something more long term as low as possible. And I sell dollars at a decent rate to poor and lower middle class people at times, when they ask for it - I know it happens, you can't tell me "poor" people don't care about dollars.

Therefore, I don't think fascination really fits for the general populace and their relation to currency, as Ben states. A want of most living beings is to live well. It is a desire that comes after basic needs are met. We don't have a fascination with this, it is a desire or a want. Some people define the end in different ways. Some are more worried about having fun, some are more worried about accumulating money and luxuries. Both are ends to fulfilling that person's wants.

People will use the vehicle that is the easiest to bring them the most stability for their savings. One of the easiest ways (not necessarily best) to save is simply to stockpile money. It is simply better to stockpile money that holds a value rather than something that loses value. The Dollar is a widely-accepted international currency and it makes sense to fall to that when the local currency doesn't hold value by quantum levels of difference.

Another desire that most people have is for stability. Pricing real estate in dollars instead of a local, fluctuating currency is sensible because it gives everyone a standard frame of reference. Stability.

But it's not a fascination - it is the free market trying to break out under extreme bending. It's human nature, which this (and most) governments tend to ignore as irrelevant. Thus cries for "patriotism" when the government is trying to force the people into things that are against their nature.

The thing about the blue dollar rate is that it's embarrassing to the government. It's a smack in the face every day at how much money (remember, ostensibly the Argentine people's money, not theirs) the government is spending, when it has little to spend, trying to keep the official rate low for various reasons (including maintaining and paying lower interest rates on bonds). Everyone (except someone with little or no understanding of things economic), including the government, knows that the blue dollar rate is a much closer reflection of reality. It is a sign waving in everyone's face saying "the value of the Peso is worse and worse every day no matter what your government says."

Getting rid of that particular "sign", which is what the government is doing, is not going to fool very many people who are not already fooled.

The fascination of the Dollar, I believe, belongs to Cristina and her government. She can't get her attention off of it for one minute because for those who understand, it helps to bare some of her prevarications (to put the situation slightly milder). She is worried about keeping going long enough to completely pass the buck to someone else. She is fascinated by controlling the Dollar's value within her country's sphere of influence, even though it is not her currency to control. She and her government have not only robbed the people through inflation and devaluation of their hard work in pesos, but has robbed them of the value of the dollar within the country (making it hard to get out as well, so not much option for the majority of people), and again their hard work turned into savings loses value thanks to her government.

As usual, she puts her problems onto others. She's the one fascinated with the Dollar, the people of Argentina are just looking for a break and can't get it.

Queso, the dollar thing is almost excusively for the middle class and the rich. The poor people, dont even know what a dollar is. They think in pesos. Remember we had 53% of poverty back in 2002. That people, while recovered, do not save in dollars, they hardly subsist.
You probably are right on the use of fascination, maybe its not the exact word. But people here think the dollar as the opposite of the peso, when is false, because the dollar also loses value every year, A LOT, and particularly now its not that is getting stronger every day.
So people in this countre think of the dollar like something its not. Overvalued, inflated, overrated, they give to the dollar atributes that do not have, maybe had, just because here it presents as the oposite of the week peso, but the 70s, 80s & 90s are over. They dont realize.
 
I was just answering to your "there is no fascination" post. I think there is, given the past of inflation, this country is very "dollarized" (in fact, in 2002, after the 2001 crash and with the devaluation, there were voices, powerfull voices, of course commanded by the US embassy, that talked and installed in the media the idea of dollarizing in deed the economy).

Let me know, Matías, when the US Embassy starts commanding Hafez Assad and the leaders of ISIS.
 
I was just answering to your "there is no fascination" post. I think there is, given the past of inflation, this country is very "dollarized" (in fact, in 2002, after the 2001 crash and with the devaluation, there were voices, powerfull voices, of course commanded by the US embassy, that talked and installed in the media the idea of dollarizing in deed the economy).

Yes it is dollarized, astoundingly so given the efforts the govt expends in trying to make it not be so. To blame this on the US Embassy is ludicrous, the reasons why people want dollars don't trust the peso are in plentiful abundance locally. Next the dog droppings on the street will also be a US Embassy conspiracy.

After 2001 the US needed to tell people that pesos aren't a good investment?! The US Embassy, and other 'powerful voices', needed to tell people that?! People lost 75% of what they had - the US had to tell someone that dollars just might be a safer investment? Amigo, I think you're nuts.

Queso, the dollar thing is almost excusively for the middle class and the rich. The poor people, dont even know what a dollar is. They think in pesos.

And this is relevant how? Yes, people who don't have money to save will not save it in dollars. Nor in real estate nor in stocks. They also won't buy Louis Vutton handbags. What exactly are you saying?

People who have enough money to put aside for a year, and want that money to not rot during that year, will save it in anything but pesos. Real estate, gold, or yes dollars. USD happens to be more a liquid option than the other 2 I mentioned. What is your point?

So people in this countre think of the dollar like something its not. Overvalued, inflated, overrated, they give to the dollar atributes that do not have, maybe had, just because here it presents as the oposite of the week peso, but the 70s, 80s & 90s are over. They dont realize.

What don't they realize? That the peso will maintain its value? I sure hope they don't realize it, because it's not true. In the past 4 years the peso lost over 60% of it's value - not (just) vis-a-vis the dollar, but in terms of what it can buy in Coto or at the chino.

Someone who saved 75.000 pesos in January 2010 would be able to buy today 30% of what they could buy then. Should they be saving in pesos? Why is this so complicated?
 
Queso, the dollar thing is almost excusively for the middle class and the rich. The poor people, dont even know what a dollar is. They think in pesos. Remember we had 53% of poverty back in 2002. That people, while recovered, do not save in dollars, they hardly subsist.
You probably are right on the use of fascination, maybe its not the exact word. But people here think the dollar as the opposite of the peso, when is false, because the dollar also loses value every year, A LOT, and particularly now its not that is getting stronger every day.
So people in this countre think of the dollar like something its not. Overvalued, inflated, overrated, they give to the dollar atributes that do not have, maybe had, just because here it presents as the oposite of the week peso, but the 70s, 80s & 90s are over. They dont realize.

Who are the poor people who I know, then, that buy dollars from me, know what it is, and know others who know? Maybe I know only smart, poor people or something. They buy dollars so they can save money. They're not stupid, just poor. They know that I offer an average between published buys and sells, while they know that where they live the people who sell dollars are many points higher. They keep their dollars hidden away, as savings. Then they go off and buy a piece of land with some of it and sell their dollars again later to build their houses. Hell I know one young woman who has a few thousand dollars saved up and she works in a laundry

And the people who buy dollars here know exactly what it is - a currency that holds value better than anything else in this part of the world. It probably won't always be that way, and then it will turn to something else. I don't know anyone who thinks dollars are some kind of magical, mythical thing. That's what the government tells you. Much like the poor don't know anything about the dollar either.

As to whether or not you, or anyone else, thinks the dollar is over-inflated, over-priced, over valued or not (I believe those are accurate statements, relatively speaking) - it still is an easy instrument to store value related to what the Argentine government offers.
 
Yes it is dollarized, astoundingly so given the efforts the govt expends in trying to make it not be so. To blame this on the US Embassy is ludicrous, the reasons why people want dollars don't trust the peso are in plentiful abundance locally. Next the dog droppings on the street will also be a US Embassy conspiracy.

After 2001 the US needed to tell people that pesos aren't a good investment?! The US Embassy, and other 'powerful voices', needed to tell people that?! People lost 75% of what they had - the US had to tell someone that dollars just might be a safer investment? Amigo, I think you're nuts.

I think you re missing the point that the dollar is the currency of the United States and that they win, a lot, with this whole inflation-massively-migration-to-the-dollar situation..
If you think, they have a lot of power (like to, for instance, install a dictatorship and eliminate -by killing- every oposition who thinks differently) and they want this dollar demand situation. You just have to put two and two together.
I m not saying EVERYTHING is because of the US embassy, which BTW they do not act like a conspirancy, is not conspirancy the way they act. There are an enormous quantity of things which are responsibility of this government. If I thought like that I couldnt even think that the good things in these years are a product of the Ks. But you guys in this forum ignore this, that the US embassy here has a lot of power, its an important political actor. There was a winner after the dictatorship, you know? and they werent the left organizations!! In fact, the hyperinflation of the exit of the dictatorship (main cause of convertibilidad) were created by the creditors of the debt (multiplied for 6 ilegally in the dictatorship).
 
I think you re missing the point that the dollar is the currency of the United States and that they win, a lot, with this whole inflation-massively-migration-to-the-dollar situation..
If you think, they have a lot of power (like to, for instance, install a dictatorship and eliminate -by killing- every oposition who thinks differently) and they want this dollar demand situation. You just have to put two and two together.
I m not saying EVERYTHING is because of the US embassy, which BTW they do not act like a conspirancy, is not conspirancy the way they act. There are an enormous quantity of things which are responsibility of this government. If I thought like that I couldnt even think that the good things in these years are a product of the Ks. But you guys in this forum ignore this, that the US embassy here has a lot of power, its an important political actor. There was a winner after the dictatorship, you know? and they werent the left organizations!! In fact, the hyperinflation of the exit of the dictatorship (main cause of convertibilidad) were created by the creditors of the debt (multiplied for 6 ilegally in the dictatorship).

Compared with the size of the US economy, the amount of dollars in Argentina is insignificant. Argentines may care it about - some like it, some don't - but it's not even a blip on the radar to the US.
 
Matias, simple question. Forget the US. Forget Cristina. Forget the poor. Forget the rich.

You have 50.000 pesos to save in January 2010 - what would you save it in?

I submit that anybody normal would - and did:

- Understand that leaving it in pesos is probably suicidal;
- Between buying real estate, buying cars, buying Euros, buying Chilean pesos, buying stocks, buying Canadian dollars, or buying US dollars - many if not most would choose the US dollar. It is in abundance in this country, highly liquid, and works for a lot of transactions here without having to convert it back to anything. There are a lot of reasons to buy USD, without involving any US conspiracy.

That's my answer, and I think that of any sane person. You seem to define sanity differently. So, back to the question. Absent all the conspiracies etc etc - what would you save it in?
 
Matias, simple question. Forget the US. Forget Cristina. Forget the poor. Forget the rich.

You have 50.000 pesos to save in January 2010 - what would you save it in?

I submit that anybody normal would - and did:

- Understand that leaving it in pesos is probably suicidal;
- Between buying real estate, buying cars, buying Euros, buying Chilean pesos, buying stocks, buying Canadian dollars, or buying US dollars - many if not most would choose the US dollar. It is in abundance in this country, highly liquid, and works for a lot of transactions here without having to convert it back to anything. There are a lot of reasons to buy USD, without involving any US conspiracy.

That's my answer, and I think that of any sane person. You seem to define sanity differently. So, back to the question. Absent all the conspiracies etc etc - what would you save it in?
Or a more direct question to Matias.... Do you rent your properties in pesos or dollars?if you do rent in pesos please tell me you dont even think about what the represents in dollars..... everything else is hogwash US embassy this or that and the poor ooohh god the poor.....most of them are poor by choice here, the concept of sacrifice is totally foreign to this '' poor people'' that Matias refers to
And i don't need to read any book about it, try to get some one to come a cut the grass with my lawnmower my gas for 2 hours and get a sandwich and a soda anddd a 100 pesos and no one shows up i mean let me be clear on this NO FREAKING BODY shows up and the ones that do want to work i have to go pick them up and drive them home after they are done. i'm damn lucky they don't ask for vacation pay and health insurance , it's a 2 hour job for cryin' out loud.Not even the poor know how to be poor in this country
 
Matias, simple question. Forget the US. Forget Cristina. Forget the poor. Forget the rich.

You have 50.000 pesos to save in January 2010 - what would you save it in?

I submit that anybody normal would - and did:

- Understand that leaving it in pesos is probably suicidal;
- Between buying real estate, buying cars, buying Euros, buying Chilean pesos, buying stocks, buying Canadian dollars, or buying US dollars - many if not most would choose the US dollar. It is in abundance in this country, highly liquid, and works for a lot of transactions here without having to convert it back to anything. There are a lot of reasons to buy USD, without involving any US conspiracy.

That's my answer, and I think that of any sane person. You seem to define sanity differently. So, back to the question. Absent all the conspiracies etc etc - what would you save it in?

It is obvious, of course, that the same analysis works with 5000 pesos, or with 500.

I bought a small table in mid 2010 for 450 pesos. I could buy about a third of that table with that money today. If I did not buy the table but would have bought about U$S 110 at that point, I could still buy the table today with that money.

How exactly does the U.S. embassy get involved in this? Does simple math not suffice?
 
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