YPF Nationalized

[KarlaBA]

Lots of armchair analysis of why nationalization will end badly. One of the posters even lifted their analysis directly from the WSJ. The fact is that no one on this forum has information regarding the backroom deals that resulted in this rather larger and important action by CFK. What ever they were/are, I am sure that it has been peculating for a long time.

All that being said, I would encourage all the detractors to look at the great successes of petroleum nationalization, instead of focusing on the negatives. A list of the some the positives: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Malaysia, Kuwait, Canada, China, Norway, Qatar, Brasil,...the list is long and you may notice that many of the top players today are sovereign owned firms which are in some cases the technology leaders in extraction and/or production.

The future remains to be seen what Argentina can do with a nationalized player in oil production. Perhaps it will become a rival to also gvmt owned PetroBras. In this day and age when the technology is not solely within the confines of a Seven Sisters firm, there is very little risk of technological backwardation as a result of nationalization as the technology can easily be bought piecemeal as required per project.

 

[ctru]

I don't think anyone from Repsol-YPF is in the mood to give an inside report.

An important part of the preservation of democracy depends on inside stories. So if somebody feels safe doing it, this is the time.

 

[citygirl]

Lots of armchair analysis of why nationalization will end badly. One of the posters even lifted their analysis directly from the WSJ. The fact is that no one on this forum has information regarding the backroom deals that resulted in this rather larger and important action by CFK. What ever they were/are, I am sure that it has been peculating for a long time.

All that being said, I would encourage all the detractors to look at the great successes of petroleum nationalization, instead of focusing on the negatives. A list of the some the positives: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Malaysia, Kuwait, Canada, China, Norway, Qatar, Brasil,...the list is long and you may notice that many of the top players today are sovereign owned firms which are in some cases the technology leaders in extraction and/or production.

The future remains to be seen what Argentina can do with a nationalized player in oil production. Perhaps it will become a rival to also gvmt owned PetroBras. In this day and age when the technology is not solely within the confines of a Seven Sisters firm, there is very little risk of technological backwardation as a result of nationalization as the technology can easily be bought piecemeal as required per project.

Yes, Argentina has such a long history of managing large corporations well. I mean, who can argue with how successful Aerolineas has been and what a pleasure it is to fly them Serious question - what do you think the odds are of it becoming a success story?

 

[nicoenarg]

Saudi Arabia, Iran, Malaysia, Kuwait, Canada, China, Norway, Qatar, Brasil,...

Don't know about the rest but uh Saudi Arabia is probably not a good example here.

Unemployment going through the roof and foreign investment drying up. Saudi Arabia today looks like a dump in terms of infrastructure and education compared to what it did in, say, 1994-1995. But you know, throwing all the names there sounds pretty nice I guess.

Also, Argentina DID control YPF before. I don't think it became the awesome oil exporter that CFK claims it will become now.

 

[KarlaBA]

Don't know about the rest but uh Saudi Arabia is probably not a good example here. Unemployment going through the roof and foreign investment drying up. Saudi Arabia today looks like a dump in terms of infrastructure and education compared to what it did in, say, 1994-1995.

There is a difference between the success of a sovereign owned oil company versus the 'success' of the country for which it bears the flag. Aramco is the most valuable firm in the entire world and it has developed into a very large multinational player with technological leadership in many parts of oil production. The wealth distribution policies of the Saud family are irrelevant to measurement of the success of the nationalization of Aramco. Or were you thinking that a 'success story ' of nationalization is where the company's revenues are distributed to the hoi polloi while the company neglects to invest in R&D. Perhaps that is what you are hoping for YPF.

Quite frankly, the most astute comment on this thread came from a poster musing about connection between Malvinas and YPF. It is very likely that Repsol was not interested in exploration near the Malvinas as per pressure from the UK, and in particular UK banks which own a sizable chunk of Spain's gvmt and private debts.

 

[AndrewWoodward]

Well the simple nationalization aside, it's part of a larger pattern that's leading to a pretty isolated Argentina. That's why I asked if there were any rumors on what actions Spain will take.

Taken with import controls, the government's general reputation for interference, and Argentina's already horrible track record in anything that contains the word "finance" or "government", there has to be a real risk of losing any foreign investment and countries becoming more hostile towards Argentina imports. And that's not a good thing for the economy.

In a time when many of it's South American neighbors are growing, playing larger roles internationally, and trying to attract people and money, it's odd to see Argentina go the other way and embrace the petulant child role.

 

[KarlaBA]

Yes, Argentina has such a long history of managing large corporations well. I mean, who can argue with how successful Aerolineas has been and what a pleasure it is to fly them Serious question - what do you think the odds are of it becoming a success story?

Aerolinas was bankrupted completely by the prior owners. I flew many times when it was under Spanish Gvmt control and later under Marsans control; both periods it was much worse than today (and that is when oil was <$20/barrel).

Stop being so negative about the gvmt; they have a very shitty hand dealt to them by history and they are doing actually very well considering that there was nearly a revolution in 2002. Every time you want to criticize, stop and think if you could do better yourself under the circumstances. I doubt it.

 

[Johnny]

I left Argentina a few months ago and have been thinking about returning, but gawdamighty ! The news gets worse everyday. From runaway inflation to Hello Chavez ! It is so disturbing. Clearly CFK and her new crop of Chavista youngsters are intent on following in Venezuela's footsteps. Hyperinflation, fear mongering, various populist pap proffered to the public, etc. and etc.

You have to think that some of CFK's wiser officials know where this is all going to lead, but are content to make hay while the sun shines. The younger zealots haven't a clue.

Hey, and I'm a left of center fellow.

 

[scotttswan]

Quite frankly, the most astute comment on this thread came from a poster musing about connection between Malvinas and YPF. It is very likely that Repsol was not interested in exploration near the Malvinas as per pressure from the UK, and in particular UK banks which own a sizable chunk of Spain's gvmt and private debts.

I doubt it there is far more oil in Argentina itself than they've found around the Falklands.

 

[HeyBA]

I'm making wild assumptions, but with a controlling interest in Repsol/YPF, the Argentine govt would have a free hand to explore for oil on it's own continental shelf, which by geographical definition, would include fields around the Falklands.

I keep looking for the chess move of connecting the state of the economy with the Malvinas/Falklands conflict. I'm thinking that the infrastructure of YPF might be used out around the islands in a kind of Japanese whaling boat vs. Greenpeace Rainbow Warrior game of chicken. Retaliation comes in the form of sanctions. Currency crisis ensues. Blame foreign nations.