6,337 New Covid-19 Infections 7/30, Extended Quarantine..?

[FrankPintor]

We now have 4000 - 5000 new cases a day up from a few hundred per day during the first months of quarantine? To me, that indicates the number of cases (not the R factor) is still accelerating and Argentina just kicked the can down the road, along with the risk of pressure on the health system. How can this happen if the quarantine we have had all along (and very similar to that of Peru) really worked as effectively as it could have or actually has an exit strategy to be sustainable? That is something we still need more time to see, but at this stage I am doubtful of a clear success story resulting in most places on earth, perhaps however with the countries that end up holistically "best off" in the long run having taken more precise and pragmatic approaches that used time effectively.

Ok, but what's your point? Slower infection has nothing to do with the number of cases, it has to do with the slope of the curve. The slope of Argentina's curve is less than Chile's, so Argentina has slowed infection compared to Chile. The difference between the two countries is striking, with the resources at hand, Argentina has done very well.

By the way, Chile's statistics are a hot mess, they tried to hide Covid deaths by not giving it as the cause of death if it could possibly be avoided, they tried to exclude asymptomatic cases, they delayed reporting, and even now I believe they complicate reporting so as to hide Covid deaths. Chile's health minister had to step down because of his part in that fraud. Argentina's rules for reporting Covid deaths are a model of transparency, I'm sure I can find the Pauta (Chilean) magazine link comparing the rules. It's also much more difficult to report yourself as a Covid infection in Chile, you need to drag yourself to an emergency room at a hospital, whereas here I understand you dial 107 and if you test positive they'll also test all your neighbours?

And never mind Peru, please, if Chile only did virtually everything wrong, Peru really managed to do everything wrong, again there was no lockdown, men and women could go out on alternate days (wtf, men don't infect men, women don't infect women...?), people could continue to use public transport, and as a consequence, bodies have been piling up in the streets. To top it off (Peru is always a standout), they think they have 900 missing women, no accurate number, there's no missing persons' register, of course, victims of domestic violence or whatever it is kills people there to add to their excess death toll.

The basic statistics as reported by Argentina and Chile are here:

COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

COVID-19 pandemic in Chile - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And the excess mortality, which does an end-run around manipulation of the data, particularly Chile which was reporting 50% of their real numbers, is here:

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world

www.ft.com

I hope it will be updated soon, and I wish they would include Argentina as well. If Chile is now looking better, it's only because they killed off so many people before locking Santiago down.

 

[sts7049]

Ok, but what's your point? Slower infection has nothing to do with the number of cases, it has to do with the slope of the curve. The slope of Argentina's curve is less than Chile's, so Argentina has slowed infection compared to Chile. The difference between the two countries is striking, with the resources at hand, Argentina has done very well.

By the way, Chile's statistics are a hot mess, they tried to hide Covid deaths by not giving it as the cause of death if it could possibly be avoided, they tried to exclude asymptomatic cases, they delayed reporting, and even now I believe they complicate reporting so as to hide Covid deaths. Chile's health minister had to step down because of his part in that fraud. Argentina's rules for reporting Covid deaths are a model of transparency, I'm sure I can find the Pauta (Chilean) magazine link comparing the rules. It's also much more difficult to report yourself as a Covid infection in Chile, you need to drag yourself to an emergency room at a hospital, whereas here I understand you dial 107 and if you test positive they'll also test all your neighbours?

And never mind Peru, please, if Chile only did virtually everything wrong, Peru really managed to do everything wrong, again there was no lockdown, men and women could go out on alternate days (wtf, men don't infect men, women don't infect women...?), people could continue to use public transport, and as a consequence, bodies have been piling up in the streets. To top it off (Peru is always a standout), they think they have 900 missing women, no accurate number, there's no missing persons' register, of course, victims of domestic violence or whatever it is kills people there to add to their excess death toll.

The basic statistics as reported by Argentina and Chile are here:

COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

COVID-19 pandemic in Chile - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And the excess mortality, which does an end-run around manipulation of the data, particularly Chile which was reporting 50% of their real numbers, is here:

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world

www.ft.com

I hope it will be updated soon, and I wish they would include Argentina as well. If Chile is now looking better, it's only because they killed off so many people before locking Santiago down.

I'm curious why you believe that Argentina's statistics are a model of transparency? just because they have rules for reporting doesn't mean that they are followed.

 

[FrankPintor]

I'm curious why you believe that Argentina's statistics are a model of transparency? just because they have rules for reporting doesn't mean that they are followed.

Ok, but the doctor signing a certificate will be liable if the rules aren't followed. Simple considerations of CYA suggest that the rules will be followed.

This is the Pauta link: https://www.pauta.cl/ciencia-y-tecn...ses-las-muertes-por-covid-19-con-metodologias

Argentina: "Se habla de una muerte debida al Covid-19 cuando el deceso resulta de una enfermedad clínicamente compatible con Covid-19 en una persona en la que se sospecha y/o está confirmada dicha enfermedad".

Chile: "Según explican desde el Ministerio de Ciencia a PAUTA, para que una muerte entre en los registros asociados a Covid-19, es necesario que en cualquier parte del certificado de defunción se mencione "coronavirus", o términos similares, pero -además-, el paciente debe contar con un test de PCR positivo".

Illuminating, isn't it?

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Absolutely, this is a real concern at the moment regardless of how much people try to convince me Argentina is safe because it is not Mexico.

Argentina is safe because it is not Sweeden, the USA, Chile, Brasil...
By the way, the problem with the responsible quarentine is that stupidity is the only thing there is never a lack:

https://www.facebook.com/100004236638695/posts/1783073785177159

 

[antipodean]

Chile has 509 deaths /million people, we have 85. And they were liying about the number of deaths. Nice example you choose. No, thanks.

I didn’t choose Chile as an example, nor did I talk about death rates, which wouldn’t make sense yet anyway since Argentina only saw a surge in cases more comparable to the numbers in recent times indicating many people haven’t had time to die yet. Also the fatality rates globally generally appear to be declining in most places recently with healthier populations as technology and know-how for treatment improves. Sin embargo, soon Argentina will surpass Germany which didn’t exactly follow the Swedish model (which I am not advocating...)

 

[antipodean]

Art. 23 of the NC allows to suspend almost all rights because of internal disaster or was, itis called State of Siege. However, it is far too extreme and this is why the President decided to do not use it.
You are confusing peace time with war times. We are in the second and the pass system is a natural consequense.

Art. 23 is irrelevant to this discussion since as you point out there is no state of siege. Which means our constitutional rights and guarantees are not suspended.

The arguments of the constitutionalists are upset about are that:

• According to the constitution a DNU cannot create criminality - linking the measures of the DNU to a law that makes contravention of those measures a criminal offence is in itself unconstitutional.
• The freedom of privacy and association are permitted and protected by virtue of not being illegal and are considered fundamental freedoms that cannot be criminalised, the same reason that even Sabina Federic recently stated that any move by the police or government to hinder protests in public spaces would be unconstitutional, regardless of the health risks involved.
• The purpose of the DNU is to combat specific public health risks associated with COVID. By applying a measure such as this across all Argentine territory it looses its purpose since COVID is not a present risk in many parts of the country, no more than say TB, Dengue, HIV or Hepatitis.

The government on one hand talk about personal responsibility and launch a massive awareness campaign to avoid social visits (which I agree with 100%) but on the other hand they criminalize something that is not a crime in the first place (which I agree with 0% on the grounds that it is an abuse of power and seeks to criminalize the most basic human activities inside of the private domain instead of using other methods to discourage them.)

Given the fact that we have seen other infringements and abuses of power from this government over these months on other subjects, it is hard not to say the power of ruling by decree is not going to their head and that they are not trying to push the limits of the constitution and personal freedom for whatever reason.

 

[ben]

I’m not sure where you’re going with this.
1. The DNU is if I understand correctly not creating criminality, it is invoking (or activating, if you will) the provisions that already exist in article 205 of the Criminal Code concerning contraventions of measures enacted to prevent - or stop the spread of - an epidemic.
The Criminal Code does not refer to specific measures (which would be insanity) against a hypothetical epidemic, it refers to any measures taken by “competent authorities” to this end.
That a DNU cannot create criminality is true but irrelevant. It is exactly the kind of measure already referred to in the CC.
2. Freedoms of association and privacy become a very delicate line to walk when the issue is an epidemic, where the simple act of my meeting you can put us both - and then anyone else we meet - in grave danger. When there is an epidemic, it ceases to be a simply political question. Why people fail to grasp this is beyond me.
3. The question of who precisely is the competent authority, is (or more precisely, was) decided by democratic elections. The nature of any sort of government is that it can make wrong calls. But if every time you believe the government is wrong, you get to call its decision unconstitutional, that is a few short steps away from invitation to total anarchy.

I think it is much more sound, not to mention more pragmatic and effective, to harp not on the legal aspect of this - which is where you might well lose - but the political one. Or the human one.
Whether or not the government’s strategy is illegal, it is (as you have yourself shown) very clearly wrong.
It unfairly (even if not illegally) restricts people’s freedoms. It has reduced untold numbers to poverty. It has engendered huge amounts of needless suffering on every level.
And - this is key - it has not even worked.
It has failed not because of some external factors, but because the government seems to have had no plan in place beyond shutting everything down indefinitely.

 

[antipodean]

I think we agree about the guts of the matter, that it does not work.

My issue with the constitutionality of it is lack of limits respected by the government despite the fact that its measures have not been effective, and the lack of checks and balances when ruling by DNU in this manner especially when crossing into point 2 territory.

Imagine an extreme scenario where the DNU prescribes a measure to administer a lethal injection to end the lives of positive cases to stop the spread of it. What will prevent this from happening, the constitution? Imagine a less extreme situation where the DNU forbids discussion of anything COVID related so as to avoid potentially "misleading information", like in say, Russia (which btw only issues a fine of 300.000 rubles as the maximum penalty for individual persons for breaking their decrees) Again what will prevent this from happening and what ensures that it will not be abused? Now for those living in Provinces with zero COVID, how is this DNU actually protecting them and where is the check and balance to ensure that it is only being used for that purpose?

https://www.infobae.com/sociedad/20...-la-casa-mientras-daba-una-entrevista-radial/

Right or wrong this guy was, for those who think the police won't break down their door for allegedly violating the quarantine think again. It can happen, even though you would think they should be spending their time out catching armed robbers.

 

[ben]

I think we agree about the guts of the matter, that it does not work.

My issue with the constitutionality of it is lack of limits respected by the government despite the fact that its measures have not been effective, and the lack of checks and balances when ruling by DNU in this manner especially when crossing into point 2 territory.

Imagine an extreme scenario where the DNU prescribes a measure to administer a lethal injection to end the lives of positive cases to stop the spread of it. What will prevent this from happening, the constitution? Imagine a less extreme situation where the DNU forbids discussion of anything COVID related so as to avoid potentially "misleading information", like in say, Russia (which btw only issues a fine of 300.000 rubles as the maximum penalty for individual persons for breaking their decrees) Again what will prevent this from happening and what ensures that it will not be abused? Now for those living in Provinces with zero COVID, how is this DNU actually protecting them and where is the check and balance to ensure that it is only being used for that purpose?

https://www.infobae.com/sociedad/20...-la-casa-mientras-daba-una-entrevista-radial/

Right or wrong this guy was, for those who think the police won't break down their door for allegedly violating the quarantine think again. It can happen, even though you would think they should be spending their time out catching armed robbers.

Thoughtful points, one and all.

 

[semigoodlookin]

Argentina is safe because it is not Sweeden, the USA, Chile, Brasil...
By the way, the problem with the responsible quarentine is that stupidity is the only thing there is never a lack:

https://www.facebook.com/100004236638695/posts/1783073785177159

I didn’t mean safe from COVID