6,337 New Covid-19 Infections 7/30, Extended Quarantine..?
- Thread starter Rich One
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garryl
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7500 is considered high ?
antipodean
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Considering the positivity rate of tests is still like 50%+ (when it “should” be 5%) there is a pretty strong likelihood that the real number of cases is significantly higher. Argentina is now ranked number 19 with the most confirmed cases in the world, sitting right between Germany and France who have both managed to slow infection down to a crawl.
As has been the case in most places in the world once 20%-ish of the population of a city are exposed to a virus the number of cases seems to drop off significantly and quickly. Apparently CABA may be nearing this number. Perhaps that effect won’t last forever but it buys enough time to return to normality. This is why Paris, Barcelona, New York, Düsseldorf, Milan etc are all going about their lives pretty normally for months now. Everyone I know in these cities are currently enjoying summer vacations at some idyllic Mediterranean beach or in their offices preparing for such a trip...
Even if this phenomenon works here given the fact that each province has taken a different strategy (some have tried to suppress the virus, others have tried to slow the spread) I think it’s not going to change much on a national level and re-enabling circulation since Argentina would end up looking like USA or Brazil where cities like New York and Rio go back to “normalish” while other parts of the country go wild with virus playing catch up for many months (year?) to come.
As has been the case in most places in the world once 20%-ish of the population of a city are exposed to a virus the number of cases seems to drop off significantly and quickly. Apparently CABA may be nearing this number. Perhaps that effect won’t last forever but it buys enough time to return to normality. This is why Paris, Barcelona, New York, Düsseldorf, Milan etc are all going about their lives pretty normally for months now. Everyone I know in these cities are currently enjoying summer vacations at some idyllic Mediterranean beach or in their offices preparing for such a trip...
Even if this phenomenon works here given the fact that each province has taken a different strategy (some have tried to suppress the virus, others have tried to slow the spread) I think it’s not going to change much on a national level and re-enabling circulation since Argentina would end up looking like USA or Brazil where cities like New York and Rio go back to “normalish” while other parts of the country go wild with virus playing catch up for many months (year?) to come.
semigoodlookin
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While I agree with the general point you're making, I think you are creating too positive an image of what is happening in Europe. While a degree of normalcy has returned to many places, there is a lot of uncertainty in those countries/cities you list. That is not to disagree about the wider point that Argentina is making a right old mess of this situation.
antipodean
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I think the general mood amongst people in Europe is actually positive. People feel there is no point expecting that the virus will just disappear completely, so expecting that there will not be further outbreaks is unrealistic and only leads to despair. Maybe the best thing to expect is a rollercoaster with ups and downs, and not just an endless drop into a black hole...
It is not like anyone I know there is currently putting their life on hold, but at the same time most people are not unaware of the situation or the risks. People generally seem to be trying to take precautions like downloading contact tracing apps, choosing vacation destinations based on level of cases / flight duration and other "comfort" factors, changing the way/ places in which they socialize, wearing masks in certain places and more frequent hand washing etc. Whether these measures go far enough only time will tell and I suspect there will be ongoing adjustment.
Nonetheless I just spoke with 12 people sitting together around a conference table in an office before they all head away for summer vacations and further flood my IG with vacation snapshots. Few seem to be complaining about money issues either.
Rich One
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Where have you been ?? it's high and the rate rate of increase is close to 30 % every 2 weeks?. In spite of the fact that number of tests in Argentina is not as important as in other places--?
A steep slope ! no Meseta yet and the City and Provincia keep pointing fingers at each other..!
gracielle
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:quality(85)//cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/PM5B5V7DYVBHZCL6RUM5G7XKFE.jpg)
Presentaron el primer amparo contra la prohibición de las reuniones sociales ordenada por el Gobierno
La acción fue interpuesta por un abogado particular quien solicitó que el decreto de necesidad y urgencia sea declarado inconstitucional
Presentation of the first appeal for protection against the ban on social gatherings ordered by the Government.
The action was filed by a private attorney who requested that the decree of necessity and urgency be declared unconstitutional...
:quality(85)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/PM5B5V7DYVBHZCL6RUM5G7XKFE.jpg)
Presentaron el primer amparo contra la prohibición de las reuniones sociales ordenada por el Gobierno
La acción fue interpuesta por un abogado particular quien solicitó que el decreto de necesidad y urgencia sea declarado inconstitucional
translate.google.com
gracielle
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The other face of the coin....
edition.cnn.com
6 August 2020
Los Angeles can cut off power and water at properties hosting parties during the pandemic...
(CNN) Authorities in Los Angeles can soon request a shutoff of water and power from homes and businesses that host egregiously large gatherings.
The order targets repeat offenders who have hosted large gatherings several times during the pandemic, Mayor Eric Garcetti said Wednesday.
It's meant to deter them from hosting parties or events in the future, during a period of the pandemic when California continues to lead the country in coronavirus cases....
Los Angeles can cut off power and water at properties hosting parties during the pandemic | CNN
Authorities in Los Angeles can soon request a shutoff of water and power from homes and businesses that host egregiously large gatherings.
edition.cnn.com
Los Angeles can cut off power and water at properties hosting parties during the pandemic...
(CNN) Authorities in Los Angeles can soon request a shutoff of water and power from homes and businesses that host egregiously large gatherings.
The order targets repeat offenders who have hosted large gatherings several times during the pandemic, Mayor Eric Garcetti said Wednesday.
It's meant to deter them from hosting parties or events in the future, during a period of the pandemic when California continues to lead the country in coronavirus cases....
antipodean
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https://www.infobae.com/salud/2020/...-obligatoria-no-bajo-nunca-la-curva-de-casos/
"As explained to Infobae Elmassianm, “SARS-CoV-2 is a new virus and its epidemic behavior cannot be extrapolated to that of seasonal viruses, and until, first, the necessary number of infected are not reached to achieve herd immunity or, second, a vaccine is available and / or, third, a strict quarantine is imposed that guarantees effective physical distance in the population, an impossible situation to try to achieve at this point in the AMBA because it will not be accepted by the population and it would be a mistake to raise (the measures) again ”.
"The virus will continue to circulate in the community with different levels of intensity. Therefore, the strategy should be focused on effectively educating the population about the protection measures against SARS-Cov-2 and the correct and adequate use of them to minimize the risk of contagion, learning to live with the virus. in a protected way ”, concluded the infectologist."
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Seems even some infectologists (along with the constitutionalists) disagree with Albie trying to dictate his way through this mess.
"As explained to Infobae Elmassianm, “SARS-CoV-2 is a new virus and its epidemic behavior cannot be extrapolated to that of seasonal viruses, and until, first, the necessary number of infected are not reached to achieve herd immunity or, second, a vaccine is available and / or, third, a strict quarantine is imposed that guarantees effective physical distance in the population, an impossible situation to try to achieve at this point in the AMBA because it will not be accepted by the population and it would be a mistake to raise (the measures) again ”.
"The virus will continue to circulate in the community with different levels of intensity. Therefore, the strategy should be focused on effectively educating the population about the protection measures against SARS-Cov-2 and the correct and adequate use of them to minimize the risk of contagion, learning to live with the virus. in a protected way ”, concluded the infectologist."
------
Seems even some infectologists (along with the constitutionalists) disagree with Albie trying to dictate his way through this mess.
FrankPintor
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The positivity rate is 42%, not 50+ (see here: https://www.buenosaires.gob.ar/laci...operativo-detectar-en-la-ciudad-son-positivos), and given that testing isn't random, suspected infected people and their close contacts are being tested here, as well as health professionals, it's very unlikely you'd get a positivity rate close to 5%.
And while 7500 infected people in a day is not a small number, it makes more sense to consider it as a percentage (we can do that, right?). The rate of increase in Argentina is ticking up by 2.5 - 3.5% per day, not great, but it's not a surge. The rate of increase is much less than it was earlier in the pandemic, and the R-number is estimated to be very close to 1. Current predictions (https://covid19-projections.com/argentina) show a possible peak toward the end of this month and about 15,000 total deaths. If that comes true, Argentina will have done very well indeed, compared to other Latin American countries.
But sure, maybe FOMO and Instagram jealousy should inform public health policy ;-)
And while 7500 infected people in a day is not a small number, it makes more sense to consider it as a percentage (we can do that, right?). The rate of increase in Argentina is ticking up by 2.5 - 3.5% per day, not great, but it's not a surge. The rate of increase is much less than it was earlier in the pandemic, and the R-number is estimated to be very close to 1. Current predictions (https://covid19-projections.com/argentina) show a possible peak toward the end of this month and about 15,000 total deaths. If that comes true, Argentina will have done very well indeed, compared to other Latin American countries.
But sure, maybe FOMO and Instagram jealousy should inform public health policy ;-)
