Another crisis 1999-2002

[El chabon]

Lets say if this economy falls down, which Argentines would be able to move out?

I personally think it will be very limited and only the ones who have an expat partner, EU pasport of have family on the other side can realisticly move. With the current state of the EU economy Europe can't give work to many Argentines so i am guessing the numbers would be quite limited.

I also expect many Argentines to move to other LatAm countries because those economies en general are doing fine and it would be easy for them to move there.

I am thinking like an exodus like in 2000-2005 will be impossible now, mainly because the economy on the other side is doing pretty badly

 

[robwerwe]

You'd be surprised at the amount with a EU passport!

 

[El chabon]

But even then they need a job or study, its quite expensive to go to Europe without a job or family there. Eastern Europeans also taking up THE low paying jobs in THE west.

I personally estimate there are about 1 to 1.5 milion Argentines with EU pasport, most of them atleast upper middle class

 

[genialf]

Mexico filled up with Argentines last time around. Can't walk around Condesa or Polanco without hearing a "che, escucháme".

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Lets say if this economy falls down, which Argentines would be able to move out?

I personally think it will be very limited and only the ones who have an expat partner, EU pasport of have family on the other side can realisticly move. With the current state of the EU economy Europe can't give work to many Argentines so i am guessing the numbers would be quite limited.

I also expect many Argentines to move to other LatAm countries because those economies en general are doing fine and it would be easy for them to move there.

I am thinking like an exodus like in 2000-2005 will be impossible now, mainly because the economy on the other side is doing pretty badly

well, with all my respect, people is immigrating into argentina, not emigrating for working.
Colombians right now, europeans soon.
There is no reason for a crisis like 2001 because:
a) there is not a neoliberal economy plan. They do have it in europe and you can se how does it works.
B) the nationalization of ypf
c) the high price of soy
d) the dolar corralito

those are strategic moves to avoid a crisis.
Regards

 

[Matt84]

well, with all my respect, people is immigrating into argentina, not emigrating for working.
Colombians right now, europeans soon.
There is no reason for a crisis like 2001 because:
a) there is not a neoliberal economy plan. They do have it in europe and you can se how does it works.
B) the nationalization of ypf
c) the high price of soy
d) the dolar corralito

those are strategic moves to avoid a crisis.
Regards

I respect data on migration to or out of a country as an objective indicator of a country's general freedom and opportunity.

I get your point about commodities, and the general viewpoint that Argentina is a vast large land of opportunity for many. But would you please, please explain how halting the free market, restraining currency exchange, etc avoids a crisis?

Are you implying those measures are good for the economy in what term? short, medium, in general a god plan? Please do explain how things works on 'the other side'

 

[scotttswan]

well, with all my respect, people is immigrating into argentina, not emigrating for working.
Colombians right now, europeans soon.
There is no reason for a crisis like 2001 because:
a) there is not a neoliberal economy plan. They do have it in europe and you can se how does it works.
B) the nationalization of ypf
c) the high price of soy
d) the dolar corralito

those are strategic moves to avoid a crisis.
Regards

They appear more like strategic moves to try and fill in the holes of a sieve.

 

[HenryNisental]

The crash not only is coming, it is almost inminent.
I hearded rumors that there will be a corralito (in the form of a compulsory sale of PATRIOTIC YPF BONDS) in less than a month. By the way, we already have a corralito of foreign currency, only this time they did not strangle the DEMAND of US dollars (as De Larrua did then), they strangled the SUPPLY of them, as you all know by now.
Besides, the crisis of 2000 was not due to a neo-liberal system (for whatever
that means), but to constant meddling of the Federal Goverment in the exchange rate, something that every economist in the world will say it must have been free to float. Sacking the SAFE DEPOSIT boxes in banks is another possibility too, or added to it.
My advice: buy a good shotgun and plenty of rounds this time around.

 

[el_expatriado]

I get your point about commodities, and the general viewpoint that Argentina is a vast large land of opportunity for many. But would you please, please explain how halting the free market, restraining currency exchange, etc avoids a crisis?

Are you implying those measures are good for the economy in what term? short, medium, in general a god plan? Please do explain how things works on 'the other side'

Cristina is nothing if not practical. She is not going to allow a crisis on her watch. The fact that she is willing to go after private property, restrict the supply of dollars, etc, shows she is willing to do what it takes to avoid a crisis.

It complicates the life of all of us, but it is a short-term solution to the problem.

 

[Matt84]

It complicates the life of all of us, but it is a short-term solution to the problem.

So it complicates life in the short term and while solving the problem also in the short term.
...
ok

what happens next in Cristina's practical mind?