Argentina 2022 - 2032

[sts7049]

Right wing free marketeers screw up the economy, Peronists come in and turn it around, right wing free marketeers come in and destroy everything again, Peronists come in and turn it around again...

sits back and opens the malbec...

lol, you are delusional. nice troll attempt though!

 

[Reply Guy]

It's not so much a function of who is in charge when it comes to economic growth in Arg as the commodity cycle. If someone graphed soy, wheat and beef prices vs Argentina GDP you'd probably get a very similar graph.

For a variety of reasons, I believe we are about to hit another commodity super cycle over the next 10 to 15 years. That's why I brought up this topic to see if anyone had any insights.

All discussions here seem to devolve into political fights. JxC and the Peronists are both clearly inept.

 

[bdk1]

Ok, I get it. The actual amount you charge the foreign company will be on the invoice you need to submit at some point to AFIP as a monotributista, this should then be a peso amount?

Exactly, you make an invoice for the exact peso amount you got / will get.

That’s the monotributo invoice; if the company asks for an invoice in EUR/USD, just make another (non-monotributo) invoice which is basically just a document with your information and the EUR/USD amount you got. AFIP doesn’t care about that one (and they will never see it), and the company doesn’t care about AFIP’s official ones.

 

[Reply Guy]

Anyone else believe that the next 12 to 18 months are going to provide 2002 type opportunities for buying distressed assets in Arg?

 

[earlyretirement]

Anyone else believe that the next 12 to 18 months are going to provide 2002 type opportunities for buying distressed assets in Arg?

Nope. Real estate will never get as cheap as it was in 2002 in Argentina. Everything was at fire sale prices then. You have to remember that many people that had money trapped in the banks couldn't withdraw it. The banks were limiting to something crazy like $400 US equivalent a month back then. Almost no one was buying then.

Prices were in free fall. The market is lower vs. peak prices but prices are still relatively high price per m2. Just like real estate prices in the USA in 2010-2012ish, prices will simply never go back to those levels again. That was the bottom.

I'm speaking about real estate. I'm not expert in other types of distressed assets in Argentina. Just out of curiosity, what do you believe Reply Guy the "distressed assets" that might be at bargain basement 2002 type prices?

 

[Redpossum]

Anyone else believe that the next 12 to 18 months are going to provide 2002 type opportunities for buying distressed assets in Arg?

Personally, I think the whole world is in for a wild ride, and possibly Armageddon. There's no telling what happens next.

 

[Redpossum]

Nope. Real estate will never get as cheap as it was in 2002 in Argentina. Everything was at fire sale prices then. You have to remember that many people that had money trapped in the banks couldn't withdraw it. The banks were limiting to something crazy like $400 US equivalent a month back then. Almost no one was buying then.

Prices were in free fall. The market is lower vs. peak prices but prices are still relatively high price per m2. Just like real estate prices in the USA in 2010-2012ish, prices will simply never go back to those levels again. That was the bottom.

I'm speaking about real estate. I'm not expert in other types of distressed assets in Argentina. Just out of curiosity, what do you believe Reply Guy the "distressed assets" that might be at bargain basement 2002 type prices?

Never say never

 

[mc kenna]

Personally, I think the whole world is in for a wild ride, and possibly Armageddon. There's no telling what happens next.

So i was right after all, building that bunker wasn't a waste of money lol

 

[earlyretirement]

Personally, I think the whole world is in for a wild ride, and possibly Armageddon. There's no telling what happens next.

For sure I agree with you that there can be a lot of challenges coming ahead globally. Things are very fragile and seeing how fast banks like SVB fell apart and the FDIC taking drastic actions is a good sign of that.

Still, I doubt we will see assets like real estate going down to 2002 levels type levels in Argentina. Remember, locals use real estate as piggy banks in Argentina. It's the one relatively stable investment. I will stand by my opinion that real estate won't fall to those levels.

 

[Redpossum]

THIS is what's happening right now, as of about 90 minutes ago.
It could be nothing, or it could be worse than 2008. We shall see what we shall see.
If you have seen The Big Short, remember that little blurb at the end, about how the banks are doing the same thing again?
If you have not seen The Big Short, you should watch it. It is the most educational film about finance you will ever watch.
Personally, I am going to my favorite little parrilla, La Parrilla De Raúl., on Maipú 2 blocks south of Cordoba. I am going to fill my belly with good beef, drink plenty of red wine, and watch football.
Because "Ave Caesar, Morituri Te Salutant".