Argentina 2022 - 2032

[Reply Guy]

First, I'd like to say I've been in and out of Argentina for over a decade. I'm not one of those starry eyed gringos that comes to Argentina for a month, never leaves Puerto Madero and thinks everything is great.

I don't underestimate the ability of Argentina and their politicians to screw things up even worse than there are now. I still think there needs to be washout of sorts for asset prices in Argentina in the short term.

That being said, I do believe that with the war in Ukraine and Russia taking energy, minerals and food off of the global market for years to come, Argentina is in a very good position.

Argentina has shale oil, mineral inputs for batteries, food, water, population growth.

Does this windfall get evaporated by unsustainable subsidies and corrupt politicians? Infrastructure doesn't get built to take advantage of resource extraction? Regulatory framework is so bad Argentina gets ignored for other markets.

There are lot of doomsday predications for Argentina on this forum and after living in the country for a while, it's easy to fall into that type of thinking.

Is there a chance Argentina has another period of solid growth on the horizon?

 

[americas]

Coming from a tech perspective -- I think latin america's timezone and cultural similarities to the USA, Mexico, (and Brazil, as a large market) make remote work a potential economic game changer. There's even timezone overlap with Europe.

I'm naive about the relative market sizes of tech and something like shale oil or manufacturing, but I include other skilled professions in addition to tech.

However, I have seen and expect to see more US companies outsourcing software development to latin america instead of India or europe. The labor rates are still good and Argentinians are absolutely as capable as my peers in the U.S. In Colombia, the phenomenon of software developers working remotely has produced other industries, like cafes, that cater to the market. If remote work becomes standard in the U.S., and infrastructure exists to support it, who cares if the developer behind the slack icon is based in Ohio or Cordoba so long as they work the same hours, speak english, and are talented.

Maybe doctors, lawyers, accountants, musicians, personal assistants, academics, and other skilled professions could render opinions remotely (US regulations, of course, need to be considered). America is already benefiting from skilled labor in the form of immigration, but perhaps remote work could enable the same dynamics without the brain drain -- such that skilled workers can stay here with their families. Of course, if they have experience in the U.S. they might decide to move there, but remote work could offer a new alternative.

As somebody who works remotely, I really can't emphasize enough how important the time zone is.

 

[Reply Guy]

Coming from a tech perspective -- I think latin america's timezone and cultural similarities to the USA, Mexico, (and Brazil, as a large market) make remote work a potential economic game changer. There's even timezone overlap with Europe.

I'm naive about the relative market sizes of tech and something like shale oil or manufacturing, but I include other skilled professions in addition to tech.

However, I have seen and expect to see more US companies outsourcing software development to latin america instead of India or europe. The labor rates are still good and Argentinians are absolutely as capable as my peers in the U.S. In Colombia, the phenomenon of software developers working remotely has produced other industries, like cafes, that cater to the market. If remote work becomes standard in the U.S., and infrastructure exists to support it, who cares if the developer behind the slack icon is based in Ohio or Cordoba so long as they work the same hours, speak english, and are talented.

Maybe doctors, lawyers, accountants, musicians, personal assistants, academics, and other skilled professions could render opinions remotely (US regulations, of course, need to be considered). America is already benefiting from skilled labor in the form of immigration, but perhaps remote work could enable the same dynamics without the brain drain -- such that skilled workers can stay here with their families. Of course, if they have experience in the U.S. they might decide to move there, but remote work could offer a new alternative.

As somebody who works remotely, I really can't emphasize enough how important the time zone is.

Great comment, you're absolutely right in my opinion. Argentines are known for being talented developers.

 

[sts7049]

Is there a chance Argentina has another period of solid growth on the horizon?

not if the kirchners are still above ground.

 

[BeraRane]

Well at least we got one very constructive OP and reply until the first rabid anti K comment.

 

[Reply Guy]

Cristina bad, Macri bad kind of goes without saying. Certainly not a fan of Argentine politicians, the Kirchners included, however I'm more interested in the overall global picture.

Is it your position that as long as the Kirchner's have an influence in Argentine politics we can forget about growth no matter the global macro trends?

Id' push back on that notion. GDP growth from 2004 to 2007 was in the 8s and 9s. If we see even more powerful macro drivers that benefit Argentina in the next 10 years, we may see strong growth again despite who is in charge.

 

[sts7049]

sure, they rode a wave of the commodities boom in the early 2000s, but everything else they did slowly destroyed a good thing. nestor was already screwing around with import taxes and trying to control prices. and then his wife really started putting nails in the coffin of a good economic future when she took over. and it's been garbage ever since, including for macri's term.

right now oil and soybeans are high, and are they taking advantage of that?

people need to understand that K criticism isn't automatically a support of JxC or macri. look at the last 20 years of this country and tell me what results and progress you see. and then tell me what the common denominator is.

 

[Reply Guy]

As far as I know Argentina is still a couple years away from being able to export shale gas and oil on a meaningful scale, but it's happening due to infrastructure projects and advances in shale engineering. At the moment they are still importing gas. That's why they haven't been taking advantage of the current energy prices.

I see these trends being far more powerful and long lasting than what we saw in the early 2000s when we saw a strong soy cycle due to China developing.

The political argument I'm not so interested in. We can assume that whoever is in charge will be a drag on progress.

 

[toongeorges]

Cristina bad, Macri bad kind of goes without saying. Certainly not a fan of Argentine politicians, the Kirchners included, however I'm more interested in the overall global picture.

Is it your position that as long as the Kirchner's have an influence in Argentine politics we can forget about growth no matter the global macro trends?

Id' push back on that notion. GDP growth from 2004 to 2007 was in the 8s and 9s. If we see even more powerful macro drivers that benefit Argentina in the next 10 years, we may see strong growth again despite who is in charge.

I am not saying Macri was great, but at least he made it possible to do business again, which was completely undone when the Peronists took over again with their impuesto PAIS, capital controls etc. Taxes need to be reformed and drastically lowered here and Argentina needs to become much more business friendly for it to grow in any meaningful way. Somehow Argentina is not focused on making the poor richer, but on making the rich poorer.

As a protest to Cristina and Macri, there is a third voice gaining popularity, which is Milei. I doubt he will solve the Argentine problems either.

 

[jblaze5779]

I don't know about you guys but I'm buying pesos. This ship is turning around!